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DFS GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections: Week 5

By Boris

Posted on October 6, 2023

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DFS GPP Breakdown: Week 5

Hey all and welcome to the Week 5 breakdown. Week 4 was one of my more successful weeks thus far. My Justin Fields/DJ Moore/Cole Kmet stack netted me the most money in DFS thus far in 2023. Too bad I ran the majority of those stacks back with Javonte Williams, but them’s the breaks. Before we dive into Week 5, let’s see if the ownership projections faired any better last week. As a reminder, these are the last ones I posted on the Discord prior to kickoff last Sunday.

 

Per usual, there’s some things I’m quite happy with but others that I am not. It doesn’t get much better than identifying the #1 owned player on the slate whilst also coming near perfect at predicting Kyren Williams’ ownership. Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, and Miles Sanders are near criminal in terms of miscalculation, but at least in those situations, I didn’t play any of them because they were not good plays. That’s something to think about as we dive into Week 5. If a player is coming in a little too high owned for a poor matchup, it might be wise to downgrade ownership as the public, which is getting better at DFS every day, realizes this as well.

On to Week Five!

 

Week Five GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates!

1. De’Von Achane – 23.8%
2. Tyreek Hill – 23.4%
3. Wan’Dale Robinson – 22.9%
4. Bijan Robinson – 21.8%
5. Tennessee Titans – 19.9%
6. Justin Jefferson – 19.3%
7. Joe Mixon – 19.1%
8. Travis Kelce – 18.3%
9. Alvin Kamara – 18.1%
10. Marquise Hollywood Brown – 17.9%
11. Ja’Marr Chase – 17.7%
12. David Mongtomgery – 17.6%
13. D’Andre Swift – 16.3%
14. Garrett Wilson – 14.6%
15. Sam LaPorta – 14.3%
16. Breece Hall – 14.1%
17. AJ Brown – 14%
18. Isiah Pacheco – 13.7%
19. Patrick Mahomes – 12.7%
20. Zach Ertz – 12.5%

Notes:

• I’m learning that those at the top typically come in with more ownership than predicted, so Hill, Bijan, and the Titans might end up being even higher this week.
• I think Wan’Dale comes in higher with his unadjusted, bare minimum salary in a high scoring environment.
• Noticeably, there are no Rams’ pass catchers coming in on this list. Cooper Kupp is back at practice, but more reports should come out this weekend about whether or not he plays, and if he will be on a snap count. This will affect not only his ownership, but that of Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, and Van Jefferson.
• Good/bad news is we have three games with a 50 total or higher, so ownership could be more spread out this week.

 

Game Stacks

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins

I don’t think I need to tell you to consider Tyreek Hill, but we should consider parts of the Dolphin offense in a game with a 50 point total, if not a stack of this entire game. The Giants defense is ranking quite low against opposing wideouts. Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be running routes against CBs Adoree’ Jackson and Deonte Banks. Between them, they have allowed 26 catches, 341 yards, and 3 TDs. The Gmen play a lot of man coverage as well, which is bad for them since no one man can cover Tyreek. As you likely can tell, however, Hill might be the highest-owned player this weekend. Pivoting to Jaylen Waddle will save you salary and help you avoid chalk.

The Giants are also top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game, so this could be another smash spot for the Dolphins RBs. De’Von Achane didn’t get going until Week 3. In that game he played 30 snaps, which was good for a 41% share of the backfield. In Week 4, he played 39 snaps, which equated to a 60% share. We’ll see if the trend continues, but it appears that Achane is taking over this backfield.

On the other side, Wan’Dale Robinson received no price increase due to the Giants playing on Monday. As such, he’s 3K, the bare minimum for a WR. He’s seen 11 targets in the last 2 games and looks to be a priority in the Giant passing attack. He has been dealing with a knee issue though this week so monitor that.

Saquon Barkley has been practicing in a limited variety this week, so it’s still up in the air if he suits up on Sunday. Miami is top 12 in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Keep in mind that Daniel Jones likes to run as well. Jones is looking at 6% ownership while Saquon’s is in flux until he is officially ruled in or out.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

At 50.5, this one sits as the 2nd highest total on the week. Just know that everything I’m about to say about the Rams hinges on the availability of Cooper Kupp.

Kyren Williams appears to have taken over this backfield, but it will likely be some tough sledding for the Rams ground attack as Philly is only allowing 63 rush yards per game. Meanwhile they’re allowing 261 passing yards per game, so Puka should accrue about 170 of those if Kupp doesn’t play. That being said, Puka Nacua will likely get shadow coverage from CB Darius Slay (or Kupp will), which leaves Tutu Atwell to run most of his routes against CB Josh Jobe, an undrafted free agent who is Pro Football Focus’ 106th ranked CB.

Something that is giving me pause is that the Rams defense has been decent in most areas whereas the Eagles have not looked like their 2022 selves. Last week the Rams jumped out to a 2 score lead against the Colts but ended up letting them back into the game. I can see a similar game script playing out here. The Eagles have been a little slow out of the gate, and perhaps that trend could continue as they travel out West. In that scenario the Eagles are passing to catch up late in the game. DeVonta Smith is coming in as the lower owned of the two WRs at 6.5%. CBs Derion Kendrick and Ahkello Witherspoon have been better than anticipated, so I’m hesitant to swallow the overall chalky numbers that the Eagles are showing this weekend. It’s quite possible these change, especially when the Rams’ receiving situation becomes clearer.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings

This game features the highest total on the slate at 53. Ownership wise, it appears many are flocking to Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. My only problem with this game is that the betting market is still treating Kansas City like the 2022 version of the Chiefs. The Chiefs and Mahomes have just not looked that explosive thus far in 2023. The perception out there is that the Vikings secondary is bad, but statistically speaking the Eagles, among others, have been worse.

If you wanted to play a Justin Jefferson and/or a Travis Kelce in this matchup, far be it for me to argue with you, but I’m concerned this will not be a GPP winning environment. I anticipate both offenses will use a good amount of their arsenal to find weaknesses in the opposing defense. Isiah Pacheco and Alexander Mattison look to have command of their respective backfields, but I still feel Mattison is close to a benching if he starts fumbling again. Cam Akers is looking at next to zero ownership. What a play he will make when someone rosters him when he takes over at the end of the 1st quarter and runs for 70 yards and 2 TDs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals

The total on this one is only 44.5, but this is an interesting scenario of one offense that has been underperforming, and another that is exceeding expectations. Through 4 games, the Bengals find themselves as the second worst team against the run as they are allowing 157 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. No wonder James Conner is coming in with 11.4% ownership.

Joe Burrow is hurt. One does not just shrug off an Achilles/calf injury. The fact that he is playing through it is noteworthy. One of these weeks Burrow will show up healthy and with no ownership. He’ll have a few TD passes and over 100 yards to Ja’Marr Chase, and I will be there when it happens. Tyler Boyd is looking around 10% ownership with Tee Higgins likely to miss. Why are people forgetting about Trenton Irwin??? I swear I didn’t have to look up his name to remember that time he caught 2 TDs against the Patriots in Week 16 of last year.

Joe Mixon has frustrated me this year. Not because I have played him yet, but because I just can’t seem to get his ownership numbers right. As of right now I have him at 11% ownership, but I just don’t buy it. Arizona is top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game, so I suppose this could be a Mixon week. If he’s coming in at sub 2% ownership again, then I’m going to be interested.

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

• Breece Hall & New York Jets DST. Through four weeks, the Broncos are the worst team against the run in both total yards allowed per game and yards allowed per run. The Jets want to be a running team, so this looks like the perfect scenario to unleash Breece Hall. You can stack the Jets DST with them, but it may not be a necessity as the Broncos offense has not really been the problem thus far in Denver, instead it has been the defense.
  • Denver is also the 2nd worst team against the pass, so I’m interested in Garrett Wilson as well. It will take a special kind of gambler to start Zach Wilson, though as mentioned, Denver’s defense is BAD.
• Jared Goff with a pass catcher and David Montgomery. Goff is better at home, but they also like to run the ball, especially for touchdowns. Therefore Goff’s ceiling may be limited. But the Panthers are a little banged up in the secondary as CB Jaycee Horn is on IR, CB Donte Jackson is dealing with a shoulder injury, and S Xavier Woods may miss with a hamstring ailment. Amon-Ra St. Brown will be going against a defense that is depleted and will likely play mostly zone coverage, on which St. Brown typically feasts. Jameson Williams is likely to return as well, and his stretching the field ability will only open things up even more for the Sun God. Just monitor developments as St. Brown has yet to practice this week while he deals with an ab injury. Sam LaPorta could be in play for similar reasons as well.
• Dameon Pierce. LT Laremy Tunsil, who hasn’t played since Week 1, has been practicing and looks to return this Sunday. Atlanta has been middle of the road against the run, but this should be a boost to the Texan ground game if Tunsil plays.
  • The perception is that the Texans are bad against the run, but it certainly didn’t look that way against Pittsburgh last week. The Falcons are a better running team, however, so Bijan’s ownership numbers make sense.
• Zay Flowers. Pittsburgh has looked much worse than I thought they would this year, even on defense. CBs Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace will be tasked with stopping the talented rookie, but they’ve allowed 7 TDs against so far in 2023. The Raiders and Texans both just carved up this secondary.
• Tennessee Titans DST. During my initial research, I thought I was uncovering a hidden gem here. Turns out others are finding this gem as well. The Titans are good against the run but awful against the pass. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson could find some difficulty rushing this week, and he could be goaded into some mistakes by HC Mike Vrabel and his focus on causing turnovers. Additionally, LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, and LT Bernhard Raimann could all miss Week 5 for the Colts. At a near minimum cost, it’s easy to see why the Titans are attractive this week. If you’re rostering them, however, you’re likely building similar lineups as others, so you’ll have to get different at other positions. Jonathan Taylor may or may not return this week as well, but this is a less than ideal spot to make your first start coming off an injury.
  • I’m interested in DeAndre Hopkins here. The Colts defense continues to be incapable of defending WRs, and the Rams exposed them again last week. CB Dallis Flowers just hit IR, so something named JuJu Brents is likely to start on Sunday. Meanwhile other CB Darrell Baker, Jr. is PFF’s 108th ranked CB (out of 109).
  • I’m also in on Michael Pittman. The Titans are giving up production to outside WRs as well. Pittman will see CBs Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting. Bunting is having a decent year, but Fulton is PFF’s 101st ranked CB.

Where am I Going?

• It’s going to be tough to stay away from Miami and Tyreek, but I don’t know if the Gmen can keep up. Also, do I really want to eat Wan’Dale Robinson chalk? Probably not.
• Hurts and Skinny Batman against the Rams has piqued my interest. Who to run it back with from the Rams could be a game time decision.
• Burrow and Chase with Boyd, Irwin or Irv Smtih will make my stacks with James Conner and/or Michael Wilson or Zach Ertz on the run back. This could totally blow up in my face since Burrow has been only slightly better than a traffic cone with an arm, but he will get better at some point.
• I’ll have exposure to Justin Jefferson in case it’s a Sunday when he goes nuclear.
• Rashee Rice might be WR1 for KC sooner rather than later.
• I’ll mix and match the players in my “One-Offs and Skinny Stacks” section.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.