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DFS GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections: Week 4

Kirk Cousins

DFS GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections: Week 4

Hey all and welcome to the Week 4 Breakdown! I’ll lead this one off for us, I am not pleased AT ALL. Let’s take a look at last week’s ownership projections vs how they actually fell:

Screenshot 2023 09 25 at 11.58.17 PM

There’s a lot to digest here. First, a quick pat on the back for identifying the highest owned plays. Because of these projections, I knew Kelley, Jefferson, Cousins, Williams, Etienne and Kelce would be some of the highest owned at their positions.

However…

I am not pleased about the discrepancies with Zach Moss, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Kenneth Walker, AJ Dillon, and Tank Dell.

These ownership numbers fluctuate in various GPPs. They can depend on the size of tournament and how many entries you get. These are from a 3-max GPP, but I want you to know that the misses here are unacceptable to me. I was a full fade on Dillon and am willing to declare him dead, but I would have been much more interested in him if knew he would be sub 3% ownership. Same with Moss; being off over 15% in the negative! (lower owned than anticipated) is a DFS sin. Moss won some folks a ton of money last Sunday, and I was off him entirely, solely because I believed he was going to be owned by 1/4 of the field. I want anyone who reads my analysis to know that a mistake like that really matters to me. I will make mistakes, but I promise to learn from them.

Congrats to those of you who stacked the heck out of the Dolphins this past weekend. I had some Mostert and Hill in lineups, but I typically ran them back with Wilson stacks. Thanks for nothing, Denver. What was that you were saying about Nate Hackett, Sean Payton?

For the rest of us, we have but two choices: Quit (not in my DNA), or get better.

On to Week Four!

 

Week Four GPP Ownership Report

Standard disclaimer: these will change. Join the Discord for updates!

  1. Kyren Williams – 24%
  2. Tony Pollard – 18.5%
  3. Davante Adams – 17.9%
  4. Ja’Marr Chase – 17%
  5. Miles Sanders – 16.9%
  6. Philadelphia Eagles – 16.6%
  7. Adam Thielen – 16.4%
  8. Stefon Diggs – 15.9%
  9. Keenan Allen – 15.9%
  10. Puka Nacua – 15.8%
  11. Pat Freiermuth – 15.7%
  12. Tyreek Hill – 15.2%
  13. Joe Mixon – 15%
  14. Alexander Mattison – 14.5%
  15. George Pickens – 13.9%
  16. Christian McCaffrey – 13.6%
  17. Javonte Williams 13.3%
  18. Josh Allen – 12.9%
  19. Tutu Atwell – 12.6%
  20. Josh Jacobs – 12.5%

Notes:

  • Yes, I included 5 more spots than normal. Last week’s failure has me triggered, so there’s a few more here that could fluctuate. Also, it took me 18 spots to find the first QB.
  • Javonte Williams’ numbers have me worried. We haven’t seen what we need to see out of him to justify swallowing chalk on a 13% owned RB I believe in but has yet to show it in 2023.
  • Miles Sanders’ ownership numbers will take some decision make considering:
    • He’s hurt, but has been practicing in a limited capacity.
    • 2 of his linemen are dealing with injuries.
      • Minnesota is averaging 120 yards allowed on the ground, however.
  • Overall, I’m skeptical on all the Dolphins v Bills numbers. Hopefully there will be more clarity by Sunday morning.

 

Game Stacks

 

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Speaking of my aforementioned skepticism, here we have the game with the highest total of the weekend at 53.5 points. Just like last week, many a DFS enthusiast should find themselves attracted to this game. While folks swallowed last week’s chalk with the Vikings and Chargers, and parts of it paid off, I think we have yet another decision to make here.

There seems to be no stopping Tyreek Hill this season. Hill has averaged 11 targets over his last 3 meetings with the Bills. He should avoid shadow coverage from CB Tre’Davious White, and as I pointed out last week, Hill can’t be covered right now anyway.

Tua’s ownership numbers, as well as the Miami RB attack, seem a little low. Buffalo’s defense does seem formidable, and Miami is entering Philadelphia Eagles territory in terms of being able to beat you in multiple ways, so perhaps that explains the ownership.

Josh Allen looks like the highest owned QB of the week, which makes sense, but I’d advise you to be wary of the Dolphins defense.

 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

I would argue that this is a must win for HC Brandon Staley. The loss of Austin Ekeler and subsequently Mike Williams is less than ideal, but the pieces are still there to make this a successful season. While Williams’ season is over, Ekeler has been practicing this week, so his 3% ownership could change.

The Raiders secondary is not good, Keenan Allen is WR1 on the year thus far, and Joshua Palmer or Quentin Johnston is set to take over for Williams. All 3 make for attractive options in GPPs this week. I’d argue that stacking Herbert with 1 or 2 of his receivers is in play for Week Four.

You can even run it back with Davante Adams, though both he and Jakobi Meyers look to be chalky on Sunday. The Chargers defense has been bleeding fantasy points to opposing passing offenses. Don’t over think this one, Adams and Meyers are in play even if Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell is the QB.

 

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

  • Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins. Tennessee’s secondary is not good. The Bengals have misfired to start the season, and I think there are many reasons for that, but Joe Burrow’s health is the most important one. He is still not 100%, I don’t care what the Bengals’ front office says. Still, an 80% Joe Burrow is better than many QBs in this league.
    • Joe Mixon is coming in with too much ownership for me. The Titans defense is a pass funnel defense. They are solid against the rush but cannot defend the pass and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Chase is coming with ownership, but Higgins is not. This might even be a week to get weird with Tyler Boyd in the Milly Maker.

 

  • Andy Dalton targeted Thielen 14 times against Seattle. He now faces the Vikings secondary that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Thielen is coming in with high ownership, but it’s entirely justified. The Panthers offensive line is hurt, so Dalton may have to dump it off early to Thielen and possibly Hayden Hurst.
    • Cousins is looking at less ownership than last week, which makes me want to target this game as a stack. You don’t need me to write up why Justin Jefferson is so good here, but I would urge you to consider alternatives or additions to Cousins + JJ stacks.

 

  • Chris Olave. The Buccaneers pass defense hasn’t been great. While it’s up in the air, Jameis Winston starting this week is quite possible. He targeted Olave quite heavily at the start of last year before he got injured and gave way to Andy Dalton. Olave might be a lock for me at what’s looking like 5% ownership (though I anticipate that others should come across this information as well). I’m hesitant to stack this matchup though considering Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore’s history.

 

  • I’ve noted the Colts’ issues with outside WR. CBs Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker will have their hands full with Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell on the outside this week. They are both garnering ownership this week, but it’s justified. One of them may be necessary to win a GPP on Sunday.

 

  • 8 catches, 202 yards and a TD are the stats for George Pickens since Diontae Johnson went down. His near 14% ownership is justified considering how bad the Texans secondary is.

 

Where am I Going?

  • I am quite interested in stacking Panthers v Vikings.
  • We need to pay attention to Dolphins v Bills ownership numbers. While high totals are nice, the public does seem to understand the implications of divisional matchups.
  • Burrow with 1 or 2 of his pass catchers has me interested.
  • Anthony Richardson is going to be a GPP winning QB at some point as long as he stays healthy.
  • I’ll be stacking the Chargers and Raiders.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.

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