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DFS GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections: Week 3

Amon-Ra St.Brown

DFS GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections: Week 3

Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season! I know I said not to overreact to Week One, but wow, the start of the 2023 season has been volatile to say the least. Let’s check in on last week’s ownership projections to see if they provide some good intel. Again, these are from a 3-max GPP on DraftKings

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For the most part, I’m happy with how these projections turned out. Puka Nacua, Joe Mixon, Zay Flowers, and Rachaad White were a little drastic for my liking, but because of these projections, I was a full fade on Joshua Kelley against a stingy run but pass funnel defense in the Titans. This is how ownership projections can be helpful. As of this writing, newly cemented RB1 for the Browns, Jerome Ford, is going up against this exact defense to the tune of around 30% projected ownership. Do we fade again? Let’s get into Week Three!

Bonus Tip: Pay close attention to sports betting lines and player prop bets. It’s a great indicator of things to come. Player news is one thing, but try to read more interesting topics on what’s happening outside of the game. Line movement, player injuries are great factors in DFS.

Week Three GPP Ownership Report

Standard reminder: it’s Friday; these will change as players are ruled active and inactive. Do not take this list as gospel. Join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.

  1. Jerome Ford  –  28.6%
  2. Justin Jefferson  –  24.8%
  3. Joshua Kelley  –  21.1% (this projection is assuming that Ekeler misses)
  4. Keenan Allen  –  19.3%
  5. Miles Sanders  –  17.4%
  6. Tyreek Hill  –  16.8%
  7. Raheem Mostert  –  16.3%
  8. Kirk Cousins  –  16.2%
  9. Kenneth Walker  –  15.3%
  10. Tony Pollard  –  15.1%
  11. Mike Williams  –  15%
  12. Travis Kelce  –  14.2%
  13. New York Jets  –  14.2%
  14. Buffalo Bills  –  14.2%
  15. CeeDee Lamb  –  13.6%

 

Game Stacks

First, some notes:

  • While it is definitely a goal to identify the game that is going to shootout, the difficulty is actually picking the correct game that does. Like it did last weekend, what can often happen is that a game script plays out in which one team goes up early and significantly. The Cardinals did just that last weekend again the Giants. However, the Gmen came storming back, and from a DFS perspective Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller were the beneficiaries as all three were in the million dollar lineup.
  • The game that many, including myself, hoped to be that high scoring situation was the Chiefs/Jaguars matchup. Instead, the better choice was the lower owned Lions/Seahawks environment, or this Cardinals/Giants one.
  • My point is that it often pays to not be a lemming. As you’ll see, the first game I write up for Week Three is the one with the highest total. While it’s quite possible that game does shoot out, things are a little unpredictable in the NFL. Fading the game that everyone else is playing is certainly a strategy, and it often works. However, sometimes it does not. A potential GPP strategy is to always fade the game with the highest total, or at least incorporate smaller, contrarian options from it. Those who employ it need to accept the fact that there will be weeks when you don’t make anything though.

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings

With a game total of 54.5, this is going to be a popular play on Sunday. Kelley, Allen, and Williams are coming in with ownership, but it looks like many are choosing them as run backs from Vikings stacks as Justin Herbert is only 9.5% owned. Between him and Cousins, that’s going to be over a quarter of DFS players attacking this game with stacks. There are plenty of reasons to go here, including the 333 passing yards per game that the Chargers are allowing, the delicious matchup Justin Jefferson has against this secondary, and the phenomenal matchup Keenan Allen has.

However, I offer this if you’re looking for a reason to fade. In both contests this year, the Vikings have had to play from behind, thus inflating their passing totals. In Week Three they have a good chance to nab their first win of the year. What happens if they get up early? The Vikings just acquired a new RB in Cam Akers, which singles to me their desire to better their run game. We just had the biggest total of last week come in way under. Not for the faint of heart, but it’s an immediate jump on over 25% of the field if you fade stacking this game and it flops.

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions

The total for this tilt sits at 46.5. The Falcons will be asking CB Dee Alford to cover Amon-Ra St. Brown this week. Alford has been targeted 9 times and has given up 8 catches for 71 yards and 2 scores. The Falcons also play 2 high safeties, which should open things up for the Sun God running routes out of the slot. St. Brown has been dealing with a turf toe injury, so that’s something to monitor, but he did get a limited practice in on Thursday. Sam LaPorta is playing over 80% of the offensive snaps and has had 11 targets over 2 games. His first career TD is coming soon, and his role could increase if Amon-Ra were to miss.

David Montgomery may also miss this game, which could bode well for Jahmyr Gibbs. Craig Reynolds will eat into some of that work, but Gibbs saw 75% of the snaps after Monty left the game against the Seahawks, including 100% of the snaps on 3rd and 4th downs. I have Gibbs at 9.6% ownership.

Josh Reynolds had 2 TDs last week, but I don’t like to chase points. Reynolds is also looking at over 10% ownership.

Bijan Robinson looks like a popular play on the other side. I’d say Tyler Allgeier is in play as well as they keep handing the ball off to him too. Between Bijan, Allgeier, and Ridder, this team ran the ball 45 times in Week Two.

Drake London helped fantasy owners breathe a sigh of relief with his 6 grabs and TD against Green Bay. We’re looking at 9-10% ownership for Mr. London in Week Three. For those willing to risk it, Kyle Pitts looks to be unowned and has now dipped below 4K. You’re banking on a TD out of him though. Jonnu Smith had 2 more catches than Pitts last week.

 

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins

We finally saw the potential that the Broncos offense has under Sean Payton as Russell Wilson threw for 308 yards, 3 TDs and added 56 yards on the ground against the Commanders in Week Two. We’ve seen the deep threat that Marvin Mims can be, the potential consistence of Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy is back in the mix. As 7 point dogs, the Broncos could find themselves in a situation where they are throwing to keep up. Vic Fangio’s defense should be improving, but at the moment they are allowing 360 yards against per game, so the opportunity is there. The Broncos are spreading the ball around a little more than I would like to guys like Brandon Johnson, Lil’jordan Humphrey , and Jaleel McLaughlin, but a Russ stack with Jeudy has me interested this week.

On the other side the popular plays will be Tyreek and Mostert.  No argument from me there, but I will say that Pat Surtain may be giving Tyreek some shadow coverage on Sunday. Surtain is quite good, but Tyreek thinks no one can cover him, and I’m inclined to agree. Durham Smythe is picking up some ownership (9%) as well, so going to someone like Braxton Berrios or River Cracraft will be the more unique move. Jaylen Waddle is dealing with a concussion and may not play.

 

Skinny Stacks

  • Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelce and maybe a WR or RB could be in play this week. Things look real ugly in Chicago though. The team just lost DC Alan Williams to unclear circumstances, and the defense is allowing the 4th most yards per game to opposing offenses. Being 12.5 point favorites, the Chiefs might not have to do much offensively in the second half of this one. Sure, the Bears could start airing it out and turn this into a shootout, but they haven’t eclipsed 190 passing yards in a game yet. Therefore I’ll likely play Mahomes with 1 or 2 pass catchers, no one on the Bears side, and hope it’s 28-3 at the half.
  • Tony Pollard and the Cowboys defense. Pollard is coming in with ownership but the Boys DST is not (2%). Their $4400 price tag probably has something to do with that. As 12 point favorites, the Cowboys could find themselves in a game script where they are grinding the Cardinals down with the run game and the defense. I might even play a Zach Ertz or Michael Wilson as a run back to catch some late passes in this one.

 

One-offs

  • Amari Cooper – 7.5% owned. I’m fading Jerome Ford and his ridiculously high ownership against a good run defense. The pass defense, however, stinks. They are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to outside WRs.
  • Zay Flowers – 7.3% owned. Indianapolis continued to bleed receptions to WRs last week as Nico Collins and Tank Dell had fine afternoons. With OBJ potentially out or limited with an ankle injury, sign me up for some more Zay Flowers against a week secondary. Mark Andrews (11% owned) or Rashod Bateman (unowned) could be in play as well.
  • Travis Etienne (13% ownership) gets the Texans defense that was letting the Colts run all over them last week. Tank Bigsby could vulture some goal line work and makes for a long shot contrarian play, but Etienne’s role in the offense and 76% snap share have me interested in Week Three.
  • Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis could have good days for the Bills. Diggs is right around 10% ownership and Davis might be under 3% despite going for 6 catches, 92 yards and a TD last week on 7 targets. Someone is going to put up points for the Bills, and you could even skinny stack one of them with Josh Allen and his potential 5% ownership.
  • Adam Thielen – 7% owned. I’m a little surprised at this projection because Thielen’s price didn’t go up due to the Monday night game. Thielen showed that he’s Bryce Young’s preferred target in the matchup with the Saints. It looks like Young will miss Sunday’s game, but Andy Dalton will still need a dependent receiver. I think Thielen might come in higher owned, but at $3900 he doesn’t have to do much to pay off here.

 

Where am I Going?

  • The Chargers and Vikings game is going to be hard to stay away from, but I’ll pay attention to how ownership numbers fluctuate and whether or not Austin Ekeler suits up.
  • I like the idea of using a Viking RB, but I’m going to dive into the research to see if the split between Akers/Mattison/Chandler is predictable in any way.
  • Jared Goff’s (who’s at home where he generally plays better) and Russell Wilson’s ownership numbers are low.
  • If Josh Allen’s ownership remains that small, I’m going to have to consider it.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.

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