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DFS GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections: Week 2

travis kelce

Week 2 GPP Breakdown and Ownership Projections

Hey all and welcome in for Week Two of the NFL season! Before we dive into Week Two’s ownership projections, let’s review last week’s just to ensure that these projections are maintaining their usefulness.

Here are the Week One ownership projections as last published on the Discord channel, and next to the first number is where they actually landed in my 3-max GPP on DraftKings.

Screenshot 2023 09 13 at 8.46.17 AM

There are some things I’m happy about and a few others that clearly need work.

  • While not completely accurate, my highest projected owned players ended up coming through as the highest owned. Keep in mind that these are supposed to be a guide, not a precise science. I didn’t have the Commanders projected for such a high percentage, but I did have them as the highest overall, which they were.
  • I was off on guys like CMC, Elijah Moore, Tee Higgins, Mike Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chris Olave, and Calvin Ridley. I’d like to remedy that this week.

Speaking of which, let’s get into Week Two!

 

Week Two GPP Ownership Report

As a reminder, these will change. Join the Discord for updates!

  1. Amon-Ra St. Brown  –  18.9%
  2. Christian McCaffrey  –  17%
  3. Ja’Marr Chase  –  16.8%
  4. Calvin Ridley  –  16.5%
  5. Deebo Samuel  –  16.1%
  6. Stefon Diggs  –  16.1%
  7. James Conner  –  15.3%
  8. Tony Pollard  –  15.1%
  9. David Montgomery  –  15%
  10. Davante Adams  –  14.3%
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  –  14.2%
  12. Joe Mixon  –  13.9%
  13. Josh Jacobs  –  13.8%
  14. Rachaad White  –  13.3%
  15. Josh Allen  –  13.1%

Notes:

  • Deebo seems a little high to me, but he’s also underpriced, so it may make sense.
  • Amon-Ra probably comes in higher.
  • Diggs probably comes in higher.
  • James Conner has a calf injury and hasn’t been practicing in full.
  • Austin Ekeler has yet to be ruled out but may not play. If Ekeler sits, I would expect Joshua Kelly ($5,000) to become chalky.

 

Game Stacks

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

We could see some real fireworks in this one. Though they won, I’m not sure the Jags are happy with their overall performance against the Colts, and we know the Chiefs are not happy with theirs. At a 51 total, this game is going to get some ownership attached to it.

The Jags secondary looked bad against a rookie QB, so Patrick Mahomes could be in line for a huge game. Travis Kelce has been practicing this week albeit in a limited capacity. He does look like the highest owned TE on the slate at 10.3%. Every other KC player is coming in way too low owned. Last week I said don’t overreact to Week One, and this is a reason why. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are not as bad as they showed last week, yet they are being treated like lepers from an ownership perspective. Mahomes, however, looks to be around 9% owned.

Trevor Lawrence looks a little higher at 10%. After one week people are believing in Calvin Ridley again and all of sudden abandoning Christian Kirk (8% ownership). We knew the Jags might attack with their outside receivers against the Colts, and they did. This week Kirk should run most of his routes against slot CB Trent McDuffie who is in his second year. The matchup isn’t overwhelmingly in favor of Kirk, but in two games last year including the playoff matchup Kirk had 26 targets for 16 grabs, 157 yards, and 3 TDs. Don’t ignore him this week.

The RBs are in play as well, especially Etienne. Here’s their ownership:

  • Travis Etienne  –  10.3%
  • Isaiah Pacheco  –  5%
  • Jerick McKinnon  –  2%

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Count me as quite surprised by the outcome of the Rams v Seahawks last week, but losing LT Charles Cross to a toe injury certainly didn’t help Seattle. Cross hasn’t been practicing this week, which could pose a problem for the Seahawks, but it’s also Detroit. It’s possible the Lions defense has improved, but I’m still leaning to their performance against KC as a little flukey.

With Cross out, the Seahawks could elect to move to quicker dropbacks for Geno Smith. This could benefit the TEs and slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Lions play zone coverage in their secondary, and JSN’s best games in college were against zone defenses. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could always make a splash as well.

On the Lions side, it’s hard not to like Amon-Ra, but his ownership may exceed the 25% mark in GPPs. Things named Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua destroyed the Seahawks’ secondary in Week One so it stands to reason that the Lions could find success as well. Also, the Lions are at home where Jared Goff typically performs better. I have an interest in stacking him with one or two of Amon-Ra, Josh Reynolds, and Sam LaPorta and running it back with JSN.

This matchup was a GPP winner in Week Four of 2022. In that game, a 48 – 45 final, the winner mega-stacked Smith, Lockett, and Metcalf and ran it back with Jamaal Williams, Hockenson, and Reynolds. Both Swift and Amon-Ra did not play. Additionally, Rashaad Penny had 2 TDs in that game. Banking on lightning striking twice is not something on which I typically count, but there are pieces of this matchup that could come through. Perhaps it could be rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and his 6% ownership.

Skinny Stacks

  • Josh Allen with Gabe Davis or Stefon Diggs. Rookie CB Jakorian Bennett and CB Marcus Peters are both ranked quite low by Pro Football Focus. Additionally, the Raiders pass rush was not that effective against the Broncos last week, so the Bills should have an easier time protecting Allen than they did against the Jets. Davis is not going to be targeted a lot. In fact, I’m pretty sure his biggest catch on Monday Night Football was not intended for him. However, he’s quite capable of taking a deep shot or two to the house. Diggs on the other hand did quite well last week against both Cover 3 and Cover 4. The Raiders run similar schemes with their secondary so there could be another big day in store for Mr. Diggs. As an aside, Dalton Kincaid looks more like a slot receiver than a TE.
  • Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase. CB Marlon Humphrey is out. CBs Ronald Darby and Brandon Stephens have been given poor grades by Mr. PFF. Safety Marcus Williams is also dealing with a pectoral injury. Burrow has had a couple of huge performances against Baltimore and Chase has had 10 or more targets in every game he’s played against the Ravens. I’m still concerned about Burrow’s lingering calf issue (yes, I believe it’s lingering despite what the Bengals are saying), but this could be a get-right spot. I’m considering Chase as a one-off as well. Tee Higgins is not going to put up a zero every week, and at 10% ownership, it looks like many others don’t think so either.
  • Justin Herbert with Mike Williams. Last year the Titans were susceptible to the deep pass, and last week Derek Carr and company showed that the trend could continue this year. CB Sean Murphy Bunting isn’t good, CB Kristian Fulton has been dealing with a hamstring issue, and Safety Amani Hooker may miss as he is in concussion protocol. We already know that OC Kellen Moore is going to have Herbert throwing deeper this year, which makes Williams or possibly Quentin Johnston a target to catch a couple of deep passes in this game. As mentioned earlier, monitor Austin Ekeler’s status as Joshua Kelley would be RB1 and likely high-owned if Ekeler misses.
    • Deandre Hopkins is a great run back here. DHop got 13 targets in his first game with the Titans, and now he faces a secondary that got decimated by the Dolphins last week. Just monitor him as he hasn’t been practicing this week due to an ankle ailment.
  • I’m not expecting an explosion in the Bears/Bucs contest, but both secondaries are hurting right now. The Bears just lost CB Kyler Gordon to IR, and CB Josh Backwell didn’t practice on Thursday as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. Bucs CB Carlton Davis also has a hamstring problem and didn’t practice on Thursday either. Additionally, Safety Christian Izien is in concussion protocol. This situation has me interested in 2.5% owned Justin Fields. I wouldn’t go overboard with a stack, but putting Fields with one of Moore, Mooney or Kmet could pay off. On the other side, I’m going right back to the well with Mike Evans, 9% owned.

 

One-offs

  • I do believe Romeo Doubs is WR1 in Green Bay, and he proved me right last week even with his hamstring issue. It does help that Christian Watson was out, but Doubs could be in play again this week. Not sure I would expect 2 TDs again though.
    • I’d be interested in Aaron Jones if he plays. This just won’t be the same offense though with AJ Dillon as a workhorse back.
  • Nico Collins proved he’s still WR1 in Houston as he was targeted 11 times and hauled in 6 for 80 yards. He’s an outside receiver and we just saw Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones have their way with the Colts outside CBs.
    • Robert Woods was right behind Nico with 10 targets for 6 catches and 57 yards. Stroud threw zero TDs in Week One. I’ll be het gets at least one this week as he looks for the first one in his career.
  • Anthony Richardson could be in play again with his rushing upside. I do think he’s viable by himself, though I’ll admit it’s a long shot that’s he ends up as the optimal QB.
  • The Giants are not as bad as they showed last Sunday night. Saquon looks to be fairly high owned (10.3%), but no one is playing any of the Giants receivers. This is the Cardinals. They want a high draft pick in April.
  • Brock Purdy seems good for about 250 yards and 2 TDs every week. Deebo, Aiyuk and CMC are all getting ownership. George Kittle is not. He’s had some huge games versus he Rams in his career, but not lately. We have to go back to 2020 to find a game when he exceeded 100 yards against them. Kittle has largely been helping the offensive line block, but at 3.4% ownership, he could be the difference between a GPP win and just cashing. A gamble for sure, but with an implied team total of 26 points, someone’s going to score for the 49ers.
    • On the other side I’m hesitant. First off, the Niners completely shut down Pittsburgh’s ground game, so I’m not too keen about relying on LA’s. Secondly, I don’t like chasing last week. Puka Nacua looks around 12.1% owned and Tutu Atwell is 6.4% owned.
  • As long as he stays healthy, Javonte Williams will win a GPP for someone at some point. I have him at 10% ownership though, which is a little high for what appears to be a tandem backfield at the moment.
  • Tony Pollard is getting a lot of ownership, but Ceedee Lamb is my guy here. He’s lower owned and the Jets showed they can be thrown on. At 10.5% ownership, the Cowboys DST is going to be one of the highest owned on the slate.

 

Where am I Going?

  • Mahomes and the Chiefs are my primary stack. Double-stacking him with Kelce and one of his wideouts or McKinnon is my likely move. I’ll be targeting Christian Kirk on the other side.
  • I like pieces of Detroit and Seattle but this isn’t the exact same situation as Week Four of 2022. The salary constraints alone are challenging. JSN, Gibbs, Amon-Ra, Reynolds, Walker, and LaPorta are my primary interests. Amon-Ra may indeed be the highest-owned player in Week Two
  • Gabe Davis is unowned. That’s tempting.
  • If Ekeler is out, I’ll have to decide whether or not I eat the Josh Kelley chalk. For those playing cash games though, you probably should start there.
  • DHop is a priority of mine if he plays.
  • I’ll have Fields with a pass catcher and Evans on the other side.
  • Ja’Marr Chase is in play though he’s in the running for one of the highest owned receivers on the slate.
  • George Kittle is my biggest prayer.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me @Borisnow00 on the website formerly known as Twitter and join the Discord for my updates on Sunday morning!

 

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