DraftKings

DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 9

By Boris

Posted on November 3, 2023

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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 9

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 9 breakdown! Things have been going real well for me in terms of identifying the right plays in the last few weeks, but small variances keep getting in the way. Taysom Hill, as he tends to do, got in the way of my Saint stacks last week. That and I didn’t have nearly enough Deandre Hopkins and Ceedee Lamb. I took home a little bit of money, but not the big payday we all hope for.

Before we get into week 9, let’s do the review of week 8’s ownership numbers.

• I’m pretty happy with these numbers. They are doing their job.
• Tony Pollard’s was obviously off, but it was something I anticipated. It’s nice to have instincts validated.

On to Week 9!

 

Week 9 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Josh Jacobs  –  25.7%
2. Demario Douglas  –  24.3%
3. Alvin Kamara  –  24.1%
4. Jonathan Taylor  –  23.9%
5. Bijan Robinson  –  23.8%
6. AJ Brown  –  23.6%
7. Chuba Hubbard  –  22.3%
8. New York Giants  –  19.2%
9. Rachaad White  –  19.1%
10. Adam Thielen  –  18.9%
11. Nico Collins  –  18.2%
12. Ceedee Lamb  –  18%
13. Jalen Hurts  –  17.6%
14. Terry McLaurin  –  17.6%
15. Chris Olave  –  17.4%
16. Rhamondre Stevenson  –  17.4%
17. Zay Flowers  –  16.9%
18. Saquon Barkley  –  16.4%
19. New England Patriots  –  16.1%
20. Tony Pollard  –  15.7%

Notes:

• I think we see some significant variance as we get closer to kickoff on Sunday. I urge you to pay attention.
• I don’t understand the Chuba Hubbard love. Yes, I get that Miles Sanders has not been good, but the Panther run game has not been good overall either. The Colts are a middle of the road run defense.
• The Texans’ defense is not the Texan defense of old. As such, White’s percentage is too high.
• I have a hard time seeing Olave being that highly owned.
• Same with Rhamondre.
• I’m fading a chalky Giants DST.

 

Game Stacks

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers

Indianapolis is 5th in the league in plays per game on both the season and in the last 3 weeks. They’re also first in the league when on the road. The Panthers are 10th over the last 3 weeks and 6th on the season.

The Colts have continued to allow fantasy points a plenty to opposing WRs. Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Jonathan Mingo are all in consideration against this soft man coverage unit, though Thielen continues to be the preferred option for Bryce Young, and his ownership reflects that.

Michael Pittman is averaging 10 targets a game with Gardner Minshew at QB. The Panthers secondary will be rolling out CBs Donte Jackson and C.J. Henderson. Jackson is Pro Football Focus’ 80th ranked CB while Henderson is 106. Josh Downs has been the more popular play, but a sneaky gem could be Alec Pierce as he is the other outside WR whereas Downs runs the majority of his routes out of the slot.

Jonathan Taylor as been looking more and more like the back who was taken #1 overall in redrafts a season ago. At $6400, DraftKings has kept his price low, which makes this an attractive matchup against a defense allowing 139 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Just be careful as Zack Moss has not completely left this offense The Colts defense is also garnering a little bit of ownership, so Taylor + Colts DST stacks could be popular on Sunday.

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have consistently been able to stop the run, but they are allowing 247.5 passing yards per game. Ceedee Lamb has 21 targets in his last 2 games, which has coincided with games of 7 catches for 117 yards and 12 catches for 158 yards and 2 TDs. On Sunday Lamb will be running many routes against Sydney Brown, a 3rd round rookie…who was drafted as a  safety. The Eagles are already bleeding points to slot receivers, which is from where Lamb runs many of his routes.

AJ Brown has been on a tour de force, eclipsing 100 yards receiving in 6 straight weeks. The Cowboys are one of the best teams against the pass, but they will be tested in this game that has the highest total (46) on the slate.

The Boys can be vulnerable against the run, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Eagles rely on their ground game here. Swift should get the majority of the work, about 65 – 70% of snaps, while Gainwell will be second with roughly 30%. Boston Scott only destroys the Giants and Rashaad Penny’s career looks over. Both Gainwell’s and Swift’s ceilings can be capped by Jalen Hurts’ TD vulturing habits.

The Boys are middle of the road vs TEs, so I could see it being a good day for Dallas Goedert, but this also isn’t a matchup that screams to play him.

 

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

This one carries some risk as it is entirely possible that the Bears offense is ineffective against this defense, but I can’t discount that over the last 3 weeks the Saints rank first in plays per game at 77 and the Bears are 9th at 65.7. The Saints did “only” run 66 in week 8, and the Bears only run an average of 57.3 when they’re on the road, but that includes games with Justin Fields from earlier in the year.

Alvin Kamara should continue to be a popular play despite his salary increase considering the volume he is getting in this fast paced offense. Though he only caught 4 balls last week, his 2 TDs vaulted him into being a top RB on the week yet again. Chicago has been decent at defending the run, but they are allowing 262 passing yards a game; that’s good for 3rd most in the league. I would expect Kamara to see his fair share of targets in this one.

Going back to Rashid Shaheed feels a little like chasing, but it’s against zone coverage which is where Shaheed has his best outings, including his long TD last week. The Bears play zone at the 9th highest rate in the NFL, so another deep shot might be incoming.

As noted earlier, I done forgot about Taysom Hill’s tendency to ruin people’s days. I doubt we have a 2 TD repeat from last week, but as long as he plays (he’s been dealing with a hip issue) plan on him being involved in this offense.

The Bears varied the RB usage against the Chargers last Monday. D’Onta Foreman got 9 carries, Roschon Johnson had 6, and Darrynton Evans had 4 including a 10 yard rushing score. Johnson and Evans were also more involved in the passing attack. The Saints are allowing 106 rush yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. Relying on any one Bear RB to get most of those yards could be foolhardy, but it will also be a huge part of what the Bears hope to do on offense, and all of these RBs are looking to be significantly low owned.

Cole Kmet had 10 grabs on 10 targets last Sunday. He had a total of zero the week before that. Tyson Bagent played in both games. DJ Moore looks like the more consistent piece as he has had 6 and 9 targets in the 2 games Bagent has started. The primary beneficiary of the Bears offense will be tough to predict. Proceed with caution as they all carry risk.

 

New England Patriots @ Washington Commanders

I was originally writing up parts of this game in the “One-Offs” section below, but I actually think there’s potential to go with multiple parts of this matchup.

Punt of the week belongs to Demario Douglas. With DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne out this Sunday, Douglas, based on his usage, is in line for a role increase on Sunday. Last week against the Dolphins, Douglas ran a route on 84% of the plays and accumulated a 22% target share. Washington just put a lot more stress on their already poor secondary that’s allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to WRs by jettisoning pass rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

If you feel like gambling, you could stack Mac Jones with Douglas. The Commanders are averaging an opposing QB rating of 102.2. 3 TDs is not out of the range of possibilities for Mac this weekend (though it’s more likely a Pats RB runs one in). Possible secondary players to include in a Jones stack are Hunter Henry, Tyquan Thornton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and maybe Jalen Reagor or Kayshon Boutte. Reagor and Boutte are more like Milly Maker dart throws though. Yet another way to get different would be to fade the chalky Douglas and stack Jones with 2 others.

Curtis Samuel has incurred an foot injury, so Jamison Crowder looks poised to takeover his role. In my humble opinion, that leaves Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as the true WR options with Logan Thomas a potentially reliable mid range weapon for Sam Howell. CB Jonathan Jones likely spends much of the day on F1, which leaves CB JC Jackson on Dotson. Jackson’s best days seem to be behind him.

This is not my favorite environment in week 9. The Patriots and the Commanders don’t exactly play fast football, so the level of volume that exists in other games just isn’t here. Should this work out, however, both offenses will need to be efficient. Additionally, Belichick has a history of making life miserable for young QBs.

 

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

• Davante Adams. The Raiders cleaned house this week, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Aidan O’Connell is also set to start this Sunday against the Gmen. In the one game O’Connell started and finished, he targeted Adams 13 times, and that was with Adams missing almost an entire half of football. Adams is nearly matchup proof, and Garrett Wilson just put up 100 yards on this secondary.
  • Swallowing the Josh Jacobs chalk is also in consideration on Sunday. Breece Hall was chalk last week against this same defense. The Giants did look better with stopping the run but still surrendered fantasy points in the passing game to the Jets RB.
• TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison. TJ’s already TE1 on the season, and the new Minnesota QB is going to need a reliable short yardage option. One of these two should emerge as that option. The Kirk Cousins injury may be the best thing that could happen in terms of Addison’s lack of salary increase.
• Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. The Texans are 10th in the league in terms of most passing yards allowed per game. Playing Evans or Godwin who combined are soaking up 45% of the targets in this offense seems like a great way to get off Rachaad White chalk.
  • Tank Dell. The Buccaneers are allowing the most fantasy points to slot WRs this season. Their slot CB Christian Izien ranks top 7 in both receptions and receiving yards allowed.
• The way to attack Seattle is through the air, not the ground. A good day for a Raven pass catcher could be on the table.
  • DK Metcalf is the lower owned Seattle receiver. He’ll eventually reward someone who plays him in DFS.
• If I’m the Packers, I’m putting CB Jaire Alexander on Cooper Kupp. This arguably makes it a Puka Nacua game. He’s also lower owner owned than Kupp and overall at his position and salary.
• I’m getting nauseous over what I’m about to type, but Drake London hasn’t been practicing as he deals with a groin injury. If London were to miss, it SHOULD benefit Kyle Pitts. I currently have him for under 5.5% ownership. (DISCLAIMER: KhaDarel Hodge will probably lead this team in targets.)

 

Where am I Going?

• Pretty much every one of my lineups will have someone from the Eagles/Boys matchup.
• Colts v Panthers is my favorite environment of the week. This could be the last time this season we see Jonathan Taylor priced this low.
• Fading Demario Douglas, an unproven 6th round rookie, is something I’m seriously considering.
• A low owned D’Onta Foreman has won me money before….
• I’ll have a Derek Carr stack or five again this weekend. I bet he feels validated that the Raiders canned their HC and OC.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.