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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 8

Alvin Kamara

DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 8

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 8 breakdown! I had a couple of really good lineups going on Sunday, specifically one with Mahomes, Foreman, Ford, Kelce, Palmer and Amon-Ra. My best lineup scored over 200 DK points and put in me a decently high GPP finish, but ultimately not the result I am looking for.

Before we get into week 8, let’s do the mandatory review of week 7’s ownership numbers.

Screenshot 2023 10 25 at 8.51.24 AM

I’m pretty happy with these. I tweaked the process a little bit this past week and got some near accurate numbers.

  • I’m surprised that Jahmyr Gibbs is as low owned as he was, but I suppose many people questioned his RB1 capabilities like I did.
  • I’m also not terribly surprised by Keenan Allen’s lower number as I personally found it difficult to get to him into lineups with the DK salary constraints.
  • Rachad White being lower owned isn’t surprising either as the matchup was not good.
  • I would have liked to been better on Hollywood Brown, but I was mostly a fade on him anyway.

On to Week 8!

 

Week 8 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

  1. Breece Hall – 27.8%
  2. Isiah Pacheco – 20.4%
  3. Tony Pollard – 20.2%
  4. Zay Flowers – 19.2%
  5. Atlanta Flacons – 18.5%
  6. Trey McBride – 17.5%
  7. Brandon Aiyuk – 17.4%
  8. Bijan Robinson – 17%
  9. Tyreek Hill – 16.5%
  10. Alvin Kamra – 15.8%
  11. Ja’Marr Chase – 15.7%
  12. Adam Thielen – 15.2%
  13. Jake Ferguson – 14%
  14. Diontae Johnson – 13.6%
  15. AJ Brown – 13.3%
  16. Lamar Jackson – 13%
  17. D’Andre Swift – 12.6%
  18. Kendrick Bourne – 12.1%
  19. Christian McCaffrey – 11.6%
  20. Terry McLaurin – 11.4%
  21. Evan Engram – 11.4%
  22. Jonathan Taylor – 11.3%
  23. Marquise Hollywood Brown – 10.7%
  24. Travis Kelce – 10.6%
  25. Jalen Hurts – 10.5%

Notes:

  • Bijan Robinson’s number is too high considering last week’s debacle, the tough matchup against the Titans run defense, and the fact that there’s more people in this backfield all of a sudden. Art Smith is annoying. Also, I’m not eating Atlanta Falcon DST chalk.
  • Trey McBride is a bit chalky for someone who’s disappointed before.
  • Diontae Johnson is way too high owned for someone who may not even play, so I don’t know what that’s about.
  • CMC should be higher, see below for why.

 

Game Stacks

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers

Wow, you didn’t have to scroll that far. The Bengals are allowing 143 rush yards per game and 5 yards per carry. Considering CMC’s role in the 49er passing attack as well, he makes for an elite play with a potential ceiling game in the cards. Brock Purdy has been in concussion protocol, so it may be Sam Darnold, who has already spent time playing with CMC in Carolina, starting this week. When backup QBs have been inserted into 49ers games, they typically have relied on CMC and/or George Kittle. The simplest version of Kyle Shanahan’s offense feature as lot of work for the RBs and TEs.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings just threw all over the Niners in week 7, so Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are of interest to me here.

Neither of these offenses operate at a fast pace, however, so in order for this game with a 44.5 total to shootout, they’re going to have to be efficient.

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

We finally saw Patrick Mahomes and company come to life in week 7, so it’s not hard to think that they might be able to keep the ball rolling against the statistically worst defense in the NFL. Denver is particularly bad against TEs, so much so that Luke Musgrave was a chalky play last week. Travis Kelce is getting ownership, but his price helps to keep those numbers a little lower than maybe they should be. Rashee Rice, despite his small salary increase, continues to be my preferred double stack as his role has continued to grow. Denver still sits atop the league as the worst defense against the run as well, so Isiah Pacheco’s ownership numbers look chalky again here in week 8.

On the other side, Javonte Williams can be hard to trust, but he’s the best back the Broncos have. The Chiefs are allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Careful though, only 73 rushing yards and 2 catches for 9 yards are a very real possibility for Javonte. If using a passing weapon, Courtland Sutton is proving to be the X in Sean Payton’s offense, which is where fantasy production has historically come from. I could also see a deep shot to Marvin Mims coming through.

This matchup was just played a few weeks ago to the tune of a disappointing 19 – 8 finish. That was an outlier as the 3 prior matchups all featured totals that eclipsed 50 points. The total here is 47. The Chiefs defense is better, which has kept their games from shooting out this season. Additionally, the Broncos are dead last in the league in terms amount of plays run per game, so there is risk in stacking this environment.

 

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts

Over the last three weeks the New Orleans Saints are averaging the most amount of plays per game at 78.3, including 87 in their last outing! On the other side, the Colts come in 6th with 67.7 plays per game (they’re also 6th on the whole season). The total in this game is only 43.5, lower than some of the other matchups, which makes this one my favorite of the week as it should be stacked less highly than some of the others. Check-downs to Kamara should be a plenty, and the Colts are still horrific against WRs so all the Saints WRs are in play.

The Saints, however, are not an easy secondary to pick on. They actually allow the fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs. I’ll be avoiding Michael Pittman and targeting Josh Downs who operates out of the slot. He’ll see a lot of Alontae Taylor, Pro Football Focus’ 100th ranked CB. New Orleans is also not particularly bad against the run, but Jonathan Taylor started looking like the RB we know and love last week, which helps to explain his ownership.

 

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

  • You can’t go into any week this season without considering the Miami Dolphins. These two teams already played one another in week 2 in Foxboro with the Dolphins coming away as 24 – 17 victors. Their matchup with the Patriots has a 47 total, tied for the highest on this slate, but I’m having trouble buying it. Could this game shootout? Possibly. But both the Dolphins and Patriots are bottom 4 in the league over the last 3 weeks in terms of plays per game, so I’m not too interested in attacking this as a game stack. Raheem Mostert had 121 yards and 2 scores last time out, so he’ll likely carry ownership despite the salary increase to $7700.
  • Dameon Pierce. Carolina is allowing 144 rushing yards per game, 2nd most in the league, and 4.9 yards per carry. If there was ever a get right spot for Pierce and the Texan run game, this is it. Devin Singletary’s snap share has been increasing too, he actually out snapped Pierce last game.
    • Nico Collins and Tank Dell (if he plays) are also of interest to me since the Panthers’ secondary is still beat up. CBs C.J. Henderson and Donte Jackson are ranked quite low, 106th and 94th respectively, by Pro Football Focus.
  • Travis Etienne. The Steeler run defense has been a little better over their last three games, but they are still vulnerable to the run. Etienne continues to be the clear RB1 in the offense.
  • Philadelphia Eagles. AJ Brown had 9 grabs for 175 yards and 2 TDs against these Commanders in week 4. The combination of Emmanuel Forbes and Benjamin St-Juste have continued to bleed production to opposing receivers since then. DeVonta Smith will be significantly less owned, so he makes for a great contrarian option if he becomes the focus of the passing attack on Sunday.
    • Going back to last season Terry McLaurin has continually had good outings against the Eagles defense, including a 10 target game this past week 4.
  • Drake London. The Titans defense continues to be solid against the run but not against the pass. London will get matchups against Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting. Bunting has been playing well, but Fulton is Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked CB.
  • Jordan Addison. While the Packers defense isn’t overly vulnerable to WRs, Addison is now the clear WR1 with Jefferson out. Since JJ’s departure, Addison leads the team with a 30% target share and a 34% first-read rate. $5700 is a very nice price for a player such as him in a pass happy offense. We may never see him priced this low again after week 8. I anticipate his ownership, currently at 10.2%, to go up over the weekend.
  • Pierre Strong. The RBs are dropping like flies in Cleveland. Seattle isn’t all that bad against opposing run games, but the Browns are committed to running the football. Kareem Hunt is where all the DFS attention is going, but he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue at practice this week. Risky for sure, but a low-owned, low-priced option such as Pierre Strong in this offense doesn’t come along often.
    • PJ Walker is going to have to throw to someone. We’ve seen Cleveland backup QBs rely on Amari Cooper before. I’m calling one long TD here.
  • Breece Hall’s ownership makes a ton of sense. The Gmen are allowing 5 yards a carry. At $5900, every DFS player has a decision on whether or not to eat this chalk.
  • The Rams are allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 117 rushing yards a game. At $7500, I’m not sure Tony Pollard comes in that highly owned, but I can see the attraction.
  • Lamar Jackson and company looked much better in their new passing first offense last week. I’ll probably have a Lamar stack or two in a potential let down game coming off the big win against Detroit.
    • There’s a chance Kyler Murray starts this week. I don’t know what to do with him considering I don’t trust his motivation nor his effort, but if he turns into running Kyler all of sudden because he’s worried about his job, I’ll be upset that I missed it.

 

Where am I Going?

  • I’m prioritizing CMC.
  • The Colts and the Saints are my favorite environment.
  • Considering that there are 13 games on this slate, I’m probably going to make 50 – 60 lineups as a means to get exposure to the variance that is likely to come on Sunday.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.

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