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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 7

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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 7

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 7 breakdown. Results for me last week were a little all over the place. My best lineup was a Dolphins “onslaught” lineup that featured Tua, Mostert, Ahmed, Tyreek, and Thielen. It also had Schultz at TE. Too bad it also featured Deebo Samuel. Thanks, Mr. Glass.

Before we get into week 7, let’s do the mandatory review of week 6’s ownership numbers.

Screenshot 2023 10 18 at 9.13.53 AM

  • While the gap between Mostert’s projection and his actual number seems large, the purpose is to identify the highest-owned players. Mostert was the highest-projected player in terms of ownership, and he was just that on Sunday. I’m lucky I didn’t have him projected for over 50%, otherwise he would have been an automatic fade for me. Risky of course, but I would have been but an injury to Mostert away from being ahead of half the field.
  • I knew not to trust Mixon’s ownership numbers. This guy continues to be a thorn in my algorithmic side.
  • There are some other numbers here that I am not crazy about. Ja’Marr Chase, Evan Engram, Josh Jacobs, Thielen, Downs, and Adams especially were what I would call misses. Also not pictured on this list are the disparities between D’Andre Swift’s, Logan Thomas’s, and KJ Osborn’s (though I anticipated him being higher than the 10% I had him projected for, he was 16% owned) ownership numbers. My primary goal is to remedy that in Week 7. Speaking of which…

On to Week 7!

 

Week 7 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

  1. Isiah Pacheco – 26.8%
  2. Kenneth Walker – 25.6%
  3. Zay Flowers – 22.9%
  4. Josh Jacobs – 22.7%
  5. Josh Palmer – 20.8%
  6. Cooper Kupp – 20.4%
  7. Maquise Hollywood Brown – 20.3%
  8. Rachaad White – 20.3%
  9. Zach Evans – 19.4%
  10. Luke Musgrave – 18.9%
  11. Travis Kelce – 18.6%
  12. Keenan Allen – 18.5%
  13. Jahmyr Gibbs – 16.9%
  14. Stefon Diggs – 16.5%
  15. Terry McLaurin – 15.7%
  16. Christian Watson – 15.3%
  17. Bijan Robinson – 15.1%
  18. Kendrick Bourne – 14.1%
  19. Mark Andrews – 13.8%
  20. Jerome Ford – 12.8%
  21. Kansas City Chiefs – 12.5%
  22. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 12.5%
  23. Geno Smith – 12.5%
  24. Tyler Lockett – 12.4%
  25. Puka Nakua – 12.2%

Notes:

  • A bonus 5 this week as it took me past 20 to find the first DST and QB.
  • I’m cheating a little. I currently have Roschon Johnson at 14.3% ownership, but he hasn’t practiced yet this week so that’s BS. He could be cleared from concussion protocol, but as of this writing, he has not.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has been a limited participant in practice this week so be wary there. He also seems incapable of running between the tackles, so I’m not jonesing to play him even if Monty and Craig Reynolds miss. Reynolds has been limited at practice whereas Montgomery hasn’t been practicing.
  • Josh Jacobs’ ownership is way too high against a team who has been the best rushing defense over the past three weeks. I bet that number goes down over the weekend.

 

Game Stacks

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

With the highest total on the slate, many a DFS enthusiast will be drawn to this matchup. At 391.6, the Chargers are second in the league behind the Broncos in amount of yards allowed per game, but they are first in passing yards allowed with 289. They are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to WRs.

The leaders of the Chief passing attack in terms of target share are Travis Kelce who has a 26% share and Rashee Rice at 14%. Rice has continued to see his role in this offense grow. He has also been running many of his routes out of the slot, which is what  CeeDee Lamb did last week against this Charger defense. Slot CB Ja’Sir Taylor is PFF’s 107th ranked CB. The Chargers should be vulnerable to both Kelce and Rice on Sunday. The Chargers are giving up an average of 4 yards per carry as well, so Isiah Pacheco’s ownership makes sense considering his role, his DFS price, and the matchup.

The Chiefs defense has been rather decent this year, which has made Mahomes and company less required to go nuclear every week. Based on ownership numbers, it seems the public acknowledges that this game could disappoint. However, Allen and Palmer are acquiring ownership, and it’s likely that one of them has a good day simply based on game script, but the Chiefs’ secondary is playing well. You can pay up for Ekeler if you want, but the Chiefs are in the top 10 (barely) in terms of rushing yards allowed per game as well. If you’re going with Ekeler in DFS, it’s because you think he’s highly involved in the passing game in his second week back, and/or he has multiple scores on Sunday.

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

The Cardinals are allowing 376 yards against per game. 133 of those are to the run game, which, for you math enthusiasts out there, means 243 are to opposing pass attacks. Additionally, the QB rating for their opponents is 101.3. They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to perimeter WRs. Specifically, they’ve given up the 6th most fantasy points per game to outside WRs. Lockett is looking higher owned than Metcalf, so give me DK. The matchup is also pretty delicious for Kenneth Walker so that ownership number isn’t surprising.

On the other side the Seahawks continue to be solid against the run, but they can be vulnerable against the pass.

The game script for this one, including the -8 spread, suggests that the Seahawks can lead this game with a balanced attack while the Cardinals will likely have to air it out to keep up. With a total of 44.5, it is the third-highest total on the slate.

As an aside, Kyler Murray started practicing this week. This could be Joshua Dobbs’ last chance to make a case to remain the starter.

 

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

  • Green Bay Packers. Denver is statistically the worst defense out there, and it appears as if they are about to have a fire sale as they have already shipped off defensive end Randy Gregory. I truly wouldn’t be surprised if some of their other pieces are moved at or before the trade deadline at the end of the month. In any event, both the Packer running and passing games are appealing here. The Broncos are allowing 173 rushing yards a game (though that’s inflated by the over 300 rushing yards allowed to the Dolphins last month), and Aaron Jones just returned to practice this week. Should he not go, AJ Dillon is likely chalk at $5300. The Broncos are also allowing the league’s highest QB rating to opposing signal callers, 117.8, so it could be a good day for Jordan Love and his pass catchers who are coming off a week 6 bye. The Broncos are the worst team against the TE position, which explains Musgrave’s ownership.
  • LA Rams. The Steelers are allowing 398 total yards of offense per game, and it’s spread out between the run and pass. The Rams offense employs a fairly balanced attack, so I’m banking on a good performance by Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua who are going up against a sub par Steeler secondary. Kupp does look to have his alpha role back. I’m also interested in whomever the Rams RB will be. Kyren Williams is going to miss, and Ronnie Rivers is out for a few weeks as well. While it appears Zach Evans will be in line for much of the RB work, remember he’s a 6th round rookie. Also, the Rams just made a trio of moves by signing Royce Freeman, grabbing Myles Gaskin from the Vikings’ practice squad, and they just added former Ram Darrell Henderson to their own practice squad. Both Freeman and Gaskin will likely be active on Sunday, but it should be Evans who is the primary RB this weekend. At 4K, he’ll be a popular play, but I’m not sure he’s guaranteed the workload nor the effectiveness that Williams was getting. McVay can be fickle with his RBs, so Evans could be a fumble or missed block away from the bench.
    • Should you want to run this back at all, George Pickens is the only Steeler player I am interested in.
  • Terry McLaurin gets the Giants pass defense in week 7. He’ll see matchups against CBs Adoree’ Jackson and Deonte Banks. Banks ranks as PFF’s 84th CB while Jackson ranks 108th.
  • Zay Flowers’ ownership makes sense since the Lions’ efficiency with their running defense likely means the Ravens will have to throw more this weekend. Additionally, CB Emmanuel Moseley is out, and the Lions will likely be without Safety Brian Branch. Flowers will see a lot of Jerry Jacobs and Cam Sutton. Jacobs has allowed 3 TDs and Sutton is yielding a 66% reception rate.
  • Stefon Diggs has been elite with his 33.5% target share, and he gets a defense that is dealing with multiple injuries.
  • The Raiders DST isn’t all that great, but they get an offensive line who has 3 starters who have not practiced this week, and they might be playing against a college free-agent QB getting his first career start.
  • The Bills DST gets a Patriots offense with 2 offensive line starters who may miss and a player at QB who cannot play QB.
  • The Commanders DST. The Gmen don’t have an offensive line, and the Commanders’ strength on defense is their defensive line. However, DT Jonathan Allen may miss this game, and they have multiple injuries in their secondary.

 

Where am I Going?

  • A low-owned DST is my first priority. I’m not eating DST chalk.
  • Mahomes’ and Herbert’s ownership numbers are initially lower than I thought they would be. If they remain low, I will have to consider them.
  • Jared Goff is too low-owned for someone who may have to throw for TDs instead of handing it off to Montgomery. Goff isn’t as good on the road vs home, but at 1.5% ownership, he has my attention. LaPorta is an interesting option with him.
  • Aaron Jones may not be owned enough.
  • Davante Adams is the lower-owned option of the top-priced WRs. He has made people millionaires in similar spots before.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.

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