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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 6

By Boris

Posted on October 13, 2023

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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 6

Hey all and welcome to the Week 6 breakdown. Week 5 was looking really good for me initially as I was at the top of the charts in a few GPPs for awhile. Alas, James Conner leaving the game was less than auspicious as he was my primary run back in my Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase stacks. Also, I played zero Zach Moss considering both Jonathan Taylor was back and it was not a statistically good matchup. Kuddos to those who did though, it was extremely savvy DFS GPP move. It also didn’t hurt that Anthony Richardson left the game yet again.

Before we dive into Week 6, let’s take a look at how ownership came in for Week 5.

These were the last ownership updates I posted on Discord. Due to personal constraints that update happened at 11:21, but I noted that David Montgomery’s ownership number would likely exceed 40%, which it did. He proved to be good chalk though as he was in many GPP winning lineups. There was a path, however, to fading him and scoring higher as Moss, Hall, and Achane were all cheaper and lower owned than Monty.

These are probably the best ownership predictions I have run thus far in 2023. The worst is Breece Hall, but I would rather identify someone who gets more ownership than predicted as opposed to being the other way around.

On to Week 6!

 

Week 6 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates!

1. Raheem Mostert – 31.1%
2. Chuba Hubbard – 22.8%
3. Ja’Marr Chase – 21.2%
4. Christian Kirk – 20.8%
5. Kyren Williams – 19.4%
6. Alvin Kamara – 17.3%
7. Josh Jacobs – 17.1%
8. Tyreek Hill – 16.3%
9. Travis Etienne – 16.2%
10. Donta Foreman – 16%
11. Joe Mixon – 15.8%
12. Marquise Hollywood Brown – 15.6%
13. Evan Engram – 15.6%
14. Jordan Addison – 15.3%
15. Kyle Pitts – 13.6%
16. Cooper Kupp – 13.6%
17. Davante Adams – 13.5%
18. Michael Pittman – 12.7%
19. David Montgomery – 12.1%
20. Josh Downs – 11.8%

Notes:

• Ownership does seem spread out a little this week. There is no singular game with a really high point total, compared to other matchups, that will demand attention from DFS players. This makes fading certain high situations a little more interesting in Week 6.
• While I was finally happy with Joe Mixon’s ownership projections last week, I just don’t buy it this week. The Seahawks are averaging 87.5 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. This ownership projection makes no sense to me.
• KJ Osborn is not on this list, he should be by Sunday.
• Speaking of Osborn, I think Kirk Cousins stacks will be a little higher owned. I currently have Cousins at sub 4% ownership, which should be higher. If he isn’t higher, sub 4% ownership in a high volume passing attack is quite interesting, Justin Jefferson or not.

 

Game Stacks

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Speaking of which, the Bears are the 2nd worst team in terms of passing yards allowed per game on this slate of Sunday games. Yes, Jefferson will not play in this game, but that does not mean a ceiling game is not in the cards for Kirky and company. Addison looks like the higher owned receiving weapon here, so I’ll be pivoting to TJ Hockenson and maybe KJ Osborn or even Brandon Powell.

Alexander Mattison is picking up around 10% ownership. The Bears are allowing 115 rushing yards per game. That’s good for right at 16th in the league, exactly halfway. I still believe Cam Akers was acquired for some reason, so I’m hesitant to go to Mattison and expect him to be a GPP winner.

Minnesota has a reputation of being terrible against the pass, but the current statistics don’t entirely support it. The Vikings QB rating against is an average of 111, 3rd worst in the league. But they’re actual passing yards against is 233.5. While that’s not good, it’s middle of the pack in the NFL. The QB rating is the interesting point for me here. Justin Fields has been playing better of late, which is suggestive of him being able to find the weak points against this defense if he uses his legs. You can pair him with a receiving weapon or two, but DJ Moore probably won’t have another 3 TDs.

Also, the weather, specifically the wind, should be monitored here.

 

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have an implied team total of 31. To quote K2SO, “It’s high…it’s very high.” On this slate, the Panthers are the 3rd worst team against the run; they are allowing 136 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. With De’Von Achane on IR, Raheem Mostert could end up being the highest owned player on the slate. It makes a ton of sense, but just be careful as Jeff Wilson has been practicing and could return on Sunday to vulture opportunities. At 7% ownership, Wilson is attracting some attention.

When it comes to Miami’s aerial assault, the ceiling might be limited. The Panthers have some of the best stats against passing attacks. They are, however, dealing with multiples injuries in their secondary and did just allow 236 yards and 3 TDs to Jared Goff last week. Basically, everything is suggestive of the Dolphins being able to attack the Panthers however they want and have success.

It’s hard to discount Adam Thielen’s role in the Carolina offense. Miami is allowing 251 passing yards per game and opposing signal callers have a QB rating of 105. This is largely due to necessity as teams have had to pass against the Dolphins in order to keep up. I expect a similar scenario this weekend in terms of game scripts. Miami should jump out to a decent lead and then try to run the Panthers into the ground while Bryce Young does his best to air it out in the second half.

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals

This games has a total of 46 and the Seahawks have the distinction of being the worst team on this slate in terms of average passing yards against per game. Joe Burrow looked much better last week so therefore it makes sense that Ja’Marr Chase is a candidate for highest owned player on Sunday. I’m not going to argue against the ownership numbers, but I just wouldn’t expect another hat trick out of Ja’Marr. Tee Higgins has been practicing this week, so he might be able to play.

I’ve already mentioned Joe Mixon’s ownership numbers not making sense to me considering the matchup. He should come in lower owned.

The Seahawks offense is not getting much attention. The Bengals are middle-of-the-road in the NFL in terms of their passing yards allowed, but they are giving up 5.1 yards per carry and 157 rushing yards per game. I currently have Kenneth Walker at 5% ownership, which I anticipate will be higher. If he remains at 5%, that’s a slam dunk of a play. For the rest of Seattle’s offense, here are their ownership numbers:

• Geno Smith – 3.8%
• DK Metcalf – 3.1%
• Tyler Lockett – 8%
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba – .3%

Wind could also be a factor in this game.

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua had a combined 67% target share in Week 5. After a game where they let Ja”Marr Chase have his way with them, the Cardinals are giving up the 4th most receptions and 4th most receiving yards to WRs. Matthew Stafford is looking at around 10% ownership, with Puka Nacua at 9% and Cooper Kupp at 11%. Arizona is giving up 242.5 passing yards per game and they just let Joe Burrow throw for 317 and 3 TDs. On top of that, the Bengals ran a total of 76 plays last week. The Rams run the 4th most plays in the league as they average 68 a game. Having at least one of Kupp or Nacua might be a must to win a GPP again in Week 6.

Joe Mixon also ran the ball 25 times in Week 5. This bodes well for Kyren Williams as the Cardinals are yielding 4.4 yards per carry and average 132 rushing yards a game.

Opposing teams are bringing balanced attacks in their matchups with L.A. James Conner is on IR so that makes it Keaontay Ingram and Emari Demercado SZN.  Ingram has been dealing with a neck injury but has been practicing in a limited amount this week. I’m concerned about a dual backfield here, but if Ingram misses, it should be Demercado who sees the majority of snaps and touches against the Rams. The are both priced below 5K, so both could see some ownership; Demercado’s specifically will rise if Ingram is ruled out.

Joshua Dobbs continues to be serviceable for the Cardinals. Hollywood Brown has maintained his WR1 role, and his ownership is high again in Week 6. The Rams secondary has been better than expected, so a ceiling game may not be in the cards (pun intended).

 

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

• The 49ers – Anyone on this team is in play from week to week. The Browns are allowing only 72 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry, so CMC’s upside could be capped in this one. I’m not saying don’t play him, but it’s something to think about. Brandon Aiyuk’s target share numbers remain high, and passing against the Browns’ man coverage could be the way to go in this one. I’m not big into chasing the past, so I’m not expecting another hat trick from George Kittle, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be used in the passing game nor does it mean he won’t find himself in a GPP winning lineup.
• Bijan Robinson – The Commanders are giving up 4.5 yards per carry. That’s good for 8th worst in the league and 3rd worst on this slate.
• Alvin Kamara – Last week the combination of Kamara and the Saints DST led me to the top of the charts in some GPPs; for a little while at least. This week the Saints get the Texans. Houston has not been as bad against the run as many predicted, but they are 4th worst against this run on this Sunday slate. The Saints are committed to getting Kamara the football, so I could see him having a good day.
• David Montgomery –  Jahmyr Gibbs hasn’t been practicing. Vita Vea is on of the best defensive linemen in the league, however, so Monty’s ceiling could be capped in this matchup. Three-yard TD plunges from a Detroit RB should never be counted out of the realm of possibilities.
  • Chris Godwin. The Lions defense has lost CB Emmanuel Moseley to IR and slot CB Brian Branch may miss as well. There’s a chance Mike Evans misses this game, which would leave Godwin to be the primary receiving weapon. CB Will Harris may end up facing Godwin frequently on Sunday. He ended up with slot CB duties against Adam Thielen last week. Trey Palmer may also be a sneaky GPP play if Evans were to miss.
• Jakobi Meyers –  In the 3 games he’s played with Jimmy G, he’s averaging over 10 targets, 7.5 receptions, 80 yards, and 1 TD. If we throw out the delicious revenge narrative with Meyers, Jimmy G, and HC McDaniels all getting a chance to shove it down the Patriots’ mouths, we’ll notice that the Pats are without CB Christian Gonzalez and LB Matthew Judon. CB JC Jackson should suit up for this one and find himself against Meyers frequently. While Jackson was a stud in his previous tour in New England, his recent play for the Chargers is the reason he is no longer there.
• Calvin Ridley – The Colts cannot defend perimeter WRs. In this exact matchup in Week 1, Ridley had 8 grabs for 101 yards and a score, and that was when Indy had their top CB in Dallis Flowers. CBs Brent (a rookie) and Baker (PFF’s near worst-ranked CB) will have their hands full with Mr. Ridley on Sunday.
• Garrett Wilson – The Eagles secondary has continued to struggle this season. They’ve allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to outside WRs.
  • D’Andre Swift. The Jets are the 2nd worst team against the run on the slate.

 

Where am I Going?

• I really like a Rams stack this week. It should be their passing attack or Kyren or both who have great days.
• Ridley is a priority for me.
• Aiyuk intrigues me, but I’ll pay attention to ownership.
• The same goes for Kenneth Walker, his ownership should end up being higher.
• Someone on the Dolphins should probably be in lineups.
• Trey Palmer or Godwin if Evans doesn’t go.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.