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DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 12

DeVonta Smith

DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 12

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 12 breakdown!

Let’s dive right in and do the review of week 11’s ownership numbers.

Screenshot 2023 11 23 at 7.54.51 PM

  • Some things were spot on here, but some things were off a little more than I like.
  • If you’re on the Discord, you’ll know that I ended up with a few Kyler stacks. You’ll also know that I was a little limited in my availability to update ownership throughout the morning, so I anticipated a little discrepancy.
  • If you read my Thanksgiving article, I was wrong about ownership as CMC was indeed the highest owned player and not CeeDee Lamb. I played more Lamb than CMC, but ultimately faded neither. Results were not all that great as I just couldn’t find the right combination of chalk and low owned players.

But quitting isn’t in my nature. On to Week 12!

 

Week 12 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

  1. Jonathan Taylor  –  28.5%
  2. Trey McBride  –  22.3%
  3. New England Patriots  –  19%
  4. Michael Pittman  –  18.9%
  5. Evan Engram  –  18.7%
  6. Rachaad White  –  18.2%
  7. Tank Dell  –  17.8%
  8. Kansas City Chiefs  –  16.4%
  9. Christian Kirk  –  15.9%
  10. Javonte Williams  –  15.8%
  11. Puka Nacua  –  14.5%
  12. AJ Brown  –  14.5%
  13. Demario Douglas  –  14.2%
  14. Cooper Kupp  –  14.2%
  15. Dalton Kincaid  –  13.7%
  16. Travis Kelce  –  13.3%
  17. Travis Etienne  –  13.1%
  18. Calvin Ridley  –  12.6%
  19. Trevor Lawrence  –  12.4%
  20. James Conner & Saquon Barkley  –  12.2%

Notes:

  • Ownership numbers are behaving a little oddly. I’m blaming it on Thanksgiving and urging you to pay attention to how these change before Sunday at 1.
  • I do not think Taylor will be that highly owned. Yeah, he’s probably priced too low, but this isn’t a good matchup on the ground for the Colts.
  • AJ Brown should come in higher than that…if he doesn’t I’ll be doing whatever I can to fit him into lineups.
  • Cooper Kupp’s and Puca Nakua’s numbers should change depending on if Kupp sits or both play.

 

Game Stacks

*Back to game stacks this week. However…there are only 2 teams on this slate in the top ten of the NFL in terms of pace of play over the last 3 weeks: the Browns and the Texans. All the other top teams either played on Thanksgiving or are in a prime time or Black Friday matchup this week. Does it necessarily anything? Maybe. Maybe not. Just something I feel we should consider as we head into Sunday.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Ah yes, everyone’s darling team hosting the team whose QB won people GPPs last weekend. Add a total of 47.5, and we’re likely looking at the chalkiest game stack of the weekend. The added reason to attack this matchup is because, as stated earlier, at 67.7 plays per game, the Texans are top 10 in the NFL in terms of pace of play over the last 3 weeks. The Jaguars ran 69 plays last week, increasing their offensive tempo which happened to coincide with one of their best offensive days of the year.

On top of that, the Jaguars play a ton of zone coverage, and CJ Stroud has become one of the best QBs in the entire NFL against this coverage. The Jags are also 6th worst against the QB position. Over his last 3 games, Tank Dell has had double-digit targets in all 3 and has put up massive numbers. Noah Brown may or may not play, but Dell and Nico Collins are viable options against a secondary that is not to be feared. This includes Dalton Schultz as well.

Last week Trevor Lawrence had his cleanest pocket of the season. While his passing attempts stayed the same, his depth of target increased with the extra pass time, and that enabled him to find Calvin Ridley down the field. The final of this matchup in week 4 was 37 – 17 Houston. While Ridley appeared nonexistent, having only 3 catches for 40 yards, he had 3 drops that day including 2 in the end zone. Christian Kirk was the one to find pay dirt, and the Texans have shown themselves to be vulnerable to slot receivers. The Texans can be susceptible to deep plays as well, so Zay Jones is looking like a decent punt this week.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew stacks are in consideration this Sunday. The Bucs are the 3rd worst team against opposing QBs, and they are banged up at CB as Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean have been dealing with injuries.  We’ve recently seen the Niners, Texans and Bills have their way against this secondary. The Buccaneers have a solid run defense, but they also may be without 2 of their linebackers this week, so Jonathan Taylor shouldn’t be ignored entirely. I’ll be prioritizing Pittman in Minshew stacks and as a one-off. I won’t be ignoring Josh Downs either.

The Colts have consistently shown themselves to be vulnerable against opposing perimeter WRs, which makes Mike Evans as a run back or as a one-off attractive. You could attempt Baker stacks with Evans and one of Otton, Godwin, Palmer or White as well. The Colts are 4th worst against opposing RBs.

 

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles

This one could get ugly….

The Bills will be without CBs Tre White and CBs Kaiir Elam. On top of that, CBs Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson may miss this matchup or be limited due to injuries of their own. You don’t need me to tell you that AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are quite viable in week 12, but I guess just did anyway.

The Eagles are 4th worst against QBs, the best against RBs, and the worst against WRs, so the Bills WR group is a good bet for solid production. I would include Dalton Kincaid as part of that group as well. Josh Allen won’t be as low owned as last week, but that makes sense since the matchup is better.

The problem with stacking this game is that most of the players are expensive, so getting Allen or Hurts with Brown, Diggs and Smith all in the same lineup will be tough. Dallas Goedert will likely miss again, so I could see DFS players going with Jack Stoll as a means to try to squeeze in the more expensive studs.

Only caveat: monitor weather.

 

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

  • Ja’Marr Chase. If I’m a backup QB making his first career start against a defense that gives up the 7th most fantasy points to WRs, then I’d be looking Chase’s way a lot.
  • Cooper Kupp is dealing with an ankle issue, but made it back to practice on Thursday and will play on Sunday. Should he had missed, Puka Nacua would have been in a smash spot against CBs Marco Wilson and Antonio Hamilton. Wilson is Pro Football Focus’ 110th ranked CB and Hamilton has been bleeding fantasy points to WRs of late. Combined, the 2 of them are averaging 24 fantasy points per game to the WR position. You could stack Matthew Stafford with one or two of his pass catchers as his offensive line has been playing better and this is a good matchup, but I’m not sure Stafford can outscore all of Hurts, Allen, Lawrence or Stroud this week.
  • A Falcon pass catcher. Who that will be is anybody’s guess. The Falcon offensive line is 3rd best in the league with a pressure rate of 23.0%. The Saints defensive line is middle of the league in pass rush.
    • Rashid Shaheed. The Falcons play a zone heavy scheme in their secondary. Against such coverages is where the Saints have shown a propensity to take deep shots to #22.
      • Don’t forget that Taysom Hill is a thing. When people forget, he ruins days.
        • Michael Thomas is going to miss. As such, A.T. Perry is getting some DFS attention.
  • Josh Jacobs. Sneakily, the Raiders are top 10 in the league in rushing yards before contact and their offensive line is a top 5 run blocking unit overall. The Chiefs defensive line has not been playing as well against the run lately. They’re allowing 1.6 rushing yards before contact, 3rd worst in the NFL.
    • You may notice a dearth of Chiefs offensive players in general in this article. It’s because they’ve been a shell of their former selves. Mahomes, Kelce, and to a degree Rice remain expensive, but pretty much all of the Chiefs pass catchers are now priced below 4K. It’s tough to go here with all the other better matchups on the slate. Also, if I’m the Raiders, I’m leaning on my plus matchup on the ground and slowing the pace of the game way down.
  • Demario Douglas. He’ll be spending most of the matchup against slot CB Cordale Flott who is helping the Gmen to allow the 5th most yards per game to opposing slot WRs.

 

Where am I Going?

  • Jags v Texans and Bills v Eagles have shootout written all over them.
  • I’ll have a Stafford stack or two.
  • I’m going to do my best to work in Josh Jacobs.
  • Love Pittman, White and Evans this week. Guess that means I like Baker and Gardner too.

 

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.

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