Gridiron Experts
DeVante Parker Fantasy

DeVante Parker Fantasy Outlook 2018

DeVante Parker Fantasy 2018

Year after year we dissect players who change teams, we get excited and oftentimes are left disappointed. Sometimes we focus too much on the player and his talents when really we should be focused on the new situation and what it means. Devante Parker has been a Dolphin his entire career, but this season offers significant change for the Dolphins offense from last year. What we need to figure out is whether any of this change affects Parker.

What Has Changed Offensively For The Dolphins?

  1. Ryan Tannehill will be back under center after missing all last season
  2. Jarvis Landry and his 161 targets from 2017 have left for Cleveland
  3. Albert Wilson signed a three year $24 million contract
  4. Danny Amendola signed a two year $12 million dollar contracts this offseason respectively
  5. The Dolphins drafted TE Mike Gesicki in the 2nd and TE Durham Smythe in the 4th round of this years draft in order to boost their tight end group.
  6. The Dolphins also hired Dowell Loggains as their offensive coordinator out of Chicago.

Ryan Tannehill’s return is intriguing, as he is almost certainly an upgrade from Jay Cutler last season. Year three of the Adam Gase and Tannehill duo will draw some buzz to the fact that Tannehill had a career-best passer rating of 93.5 and completion percentage of 67.1% in 2016 (13 games) before suffering a knee injury that would ultimately keep him out for 2017. Parker also saw his best catch percentage in his three years as a pro during the 2016 campaign with a clip of 56 catches on 87 targets or 64.4% in 2016. Parker also boasted career bests in 2016 with yards (744), yards per catch (13.3), and touchdowns (4).

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Grab a spoon it’s time to eat some pudding…

In 2016 the Dolphins finished 10-6 and saw their only playoff berth since 2008. That same year Ryan Tannehill had a career year under Gase as I mentioned earlier. In 2016 Tannehill attempted 389 passes in 13 games which would have put him on pace for 479, the lowest total of his career. The Dolphins attempted 306 passes to WR in 2016 good for 25th, however, they did maintain a high WR target share of 65.5%. Parker accumulated 87 targets good for 28.4% of WR targets and 18.6% overall (15 games).

As bad as the Dolphins seemed to be offensively in 2017 with Cutler, they paced the NFL in WR targets with 398 and their WR target share was at 67.7% also pacing the league. They finished 6-10. Parker managed to accumulate 96 targets good for 24.1% of WR targets and a 16.3% target share overall(Keep in mind he missed three games so it is fair to project his target shares would be a few percentage points higher).

DeVante Parker Career Stats
Year Team G Rec Yards Y/G Avg 100+ TD
2015
15 26 494 32.9 19 1 3
2016
15 56 744 49.6 13.3 2 4
2017
13 57 670 51.5 11.8 0 1
Total 43 139 1908 44.7 14.7 3 8

QB change didn’t really affect Parker’s percentage of target share and he only managed one more catch in 2017 than 2016 on 9 extra targets. You could argue had Parker played 16 games in 2017  he would have managed 118 targets and closer to 70 catches indicating progression. Yes, that’s fair, but did I mention the Dolphins ran 62.2 plays per game in 2017 good for 22nd in the NFL?  In 2016 with Tannehill under center (his career year with Gase)… the Dolphins ran the fewest plays per game at 57.4, good for dead last. What this tells us is that Gase and the Dolphins like to slow the game down and win games by a score of 13-10, all while keeping Tannehill efficient on a small scale. I believe Gase will try and replicate his 2016 success, don’t you? In a fantasy world where opportunity is king, none of these stats bode well for a Devante Parker breakthrough season.

Jarvis Landry’s departure may also draw some positive outlook for Parker. Landry commanded 161 targets last season and regularly eclipsed 100 targets in his 4 years with Miami. He is gone. Don’t let this fool you, Miami committed significant capital to address Landry’s departure from the middle of their offense. The additions of Wilson, Amendola, and two rookie tight ends further suggest the Dolphins want to cater their offense to Tannehill for at least another year. Tannehill has always made his money with short and intermediate passes across the middle of the field to Landry, and you can be sure that some combination of these additional weapons will address the void left by Landry’s trade. Leaving little for Parker to pick up on the outside.

 

Dowell Loggains’ arrival as the offensive coordinator doesn’t mean much for the Dolphins as Gase will continue to call plays as he has done for the past few seasons as Miami’s coach. Loggains spent time with Gase in 2015 as the Bears QB coach and filled the position of offensive coordinator in Chicago when Gase was hired in Miami. The Bears were nothing special offensively the past two seasons much the same way Miami has been nothing special, so don’t expect anything different with his addition.

DeVante Parker Fantasy Outlook 2018

Parker looks like he is headed for another season in fantasy purgatory. Parker is currently being drafted as WR 39 and 101 overall. If Parker regains his catch rate around 64.4% like he did in 2016 and manages a few extra targets with the departure of Jarvis Landry, he is still looking at a 65-75 catch season with a yardage total hovering between 800-900 yards. A small improvement but nothing to suggest a significant move in his ADP. Parker continues to draw attention and build hype, but the numbers offer nothing to be excited about other than another year of fantasy mediocrity. Parker is best served as a WR3 with a ceiling of high-end WR3 and floor of WR4. He is a safe bet at where he is being drafted, and value can be had with him if he slips in drafts and you can grab him for your fantasy bench. I’ll take another pudding.

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Josh Frazin

Josh Frazin

Josh is a 13-year fantasy veteran. With six title appearances and two championships in his main league, Josh continues to assert his dominance in the fantasy world. He believes in keeping his roster fresh while maximizing value through trades and the waiver wire. Josh never gets caught up in name value and makes his money dissecting numbers. He is a UCF graduate and lifelong Dolphins fan. Josh is happily married to his loving wife, and together they spend their time hiking, snowboarding, and living in the great outdoors of Montana. Follow him on twitter @TheFantasyBlade.

4 comments

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    • I look at Kenny Stills through the same lens as I do for Parker. Stills has proven to be a worthy fantasy WR in Miami. He has dynamic speed and big play ability. He also can be volatile on a week to week basis, which isn’t a guy I prefer to have in my starting lineup. Still(pun intended), you have to believe the results wont very much as long as all of the factors I mentioned about the Dolphins become true. His big play ability and Tannehill’s surprisingly accurate deep ball can be enticing when the fins are rolling, but a low volume offense on an off day can be a back breaker.

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