Deshaun Watson Fantasy
There are few players in the NFL this year, that have bigger question marks over their heads than Deshaun Watson. Your most recent memory of Watson will be him returning to the league in week 12 after a 1.5-year hiatus, to post a dismal 27.6 QBR against his former team, the Houston Texans. Then going on to be one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. But you should be remembering the year 2020 when Deshaun Watson was QB5 in fantasy rankings despite being on a 4 – 12 team with lackluster talent. The year he averaged 23.5 points per game, for context that’s less than 2 points per game behind QB1 of that year, Mr. Josh Allen. Now Deshaun Watson returns for his first full year back in the league, behind a top 5 offensive line unit, and one of the more complete rosters in the NFL. That’s not to say he’s a lock to repeat his former production, but at 27 years old, he is undoubtedly going to be a relevant figure for both redraft and dynasty teams if he can recapture even 80% of his previous form.
Latest Odds
If you haven’t realized from my articles yet, I love a good bet. So let’s look at some of Watson’s current props on DraftKings.
- To go over 4000 passing yards: +250
- Over/Under 25.5 passing touchdowns: -110
- MVP: +3000
No hot takes here, like the rest of you, I am not putting my money on MVP. But 4000 passing yards and 26 or more TDs? Remember friends, history is instructive, and in the 3 years from 2018 – 2020, Watson hit both those metrics every year with the exception of 4000 yards in 2019. Sure he had DeAndre Hopkins for some of it but in 2020 his leading receiver was Brandin Cooks who just barely cracked 1000 yards. A lot of people won’t bet on Watson for personal reasons, I get it, but some of these odds are as good as online craps casinos. Nobody is looking at the Browns to do any damage in the AFC North this year, but they are arguably the most complete team in the division.
Fantasy Value
Having Watson as QB9 fits just about perfectly, it does feel like a bit of a cop-out to go with the consensus, but that my friends is like Baby Bear’s porridge, just right. Hes a true Tier 3 quarterback. High ceiling, but low floor. Watson has 2 possible outcomes in my mind, he’s either playing relevant football in January having re-established himself as a fantasy darling, or he has cemented his trade to the Browns as the worst football decision in history. If you miss out on the top-tier QBs consider picking up Watson in later rounds, he might just be worth the risk.
- Current ADP: 72
- QB ADP: 9
For all of the above, it’s worth noting that Deshaun Watson is a risk. If he repeats last year’s performance you will be kicking yourself if you draft him QB9. As we get into Training Camp, reports on how much of the rust is truly gone will dramatically affect his rankings. I don’t think he will be going above his current, but could drop if there are talks of inaccuracy or a lack of chemistry with the receiving core.
Fantasy Insights
I did mention above that the Browns have one of the more complete rosters in the NFL. One small caveat, the receiver room isn’t exactly stacked. Amari Cooper isn’t bad, but he isn’t anyone’s vision of an ideal WR1. Behind him are Elijah Moore and Donovan Peoples-Jones. They did draft Cedric Tilman who I was a big fan of pre-draft, a very physical receiver who has only dropped 5 targets in his entire college career. I could see him moving up the depth chart. But realistically, Watson can’t rely on his rushing ability alone and still be a fantasy darling. So the receivers are going to have to step up. Fortunately, they have one of the best pure running backs in the NFL, Nick Chubb, defenses need to account for him leaving a little more breathing space for the wideouts.
Speaking of Watson’s rushing ability, he has a dual-threat quarterback’s best weapon, a strong offensive line with serious continuity. They should be a top 5 unit, and allow him to take advantage of designed runs, and efficient scrambles. Quarterbacks who can run are always going to fare better in fantasy than pure passers, so he has this working for him.
One overlooked factor, Jim Schwartz the new defensive coordinator is a significant upgrade from the now-fired Joe Woods. He will give Watson more time on the field, period. Joe Woods favored disguising coverage and forcing the QB to hold the ball, the opposing short to intermediate pass game benefited but he tried to shut down their explosive plays. Schwartz however pushes the line and forces the ball out. If the defense fails, that means big chunk plays, if it succeeds, drives end quickly. Either way, the offense is back on the field quicker than it would have been in 2022.
Dynasty Value
Someone asked me the other day, if would I take C. J. Stroud or Deshaun Watson in Dynasty. It genuinely stumped me, but I think I’m leaning toward Watson. For one he is still young, 27 years old is not bad in Quarterback years. If he strikes gold, which he unquestionably has done in the past, there’s still 6 – 8 years of high-quality production. Looking at the immediate benefit, the Browns have serious continuity through until the end of 2024, the only starters hitting the free-agent list at the end of the year are Za’Darius Smith and Donovan Peoples-Jones. So if they can find a winning formula this year then there’s no reason they can’t repeat. The only question that remains is, will Watson be good in 2023? I think the chances of him morphing back into his 2020 version are no less likely than C. J. Stroud being an above-average quarterback. Here is the best advice I can give you in Dynasty, if you are in win-now mode Deshaun Watson is not for you, go for a more proven commodity at the game’s most important position. If you are in rebuild then Watson is a piece you could get cheap with a very high possible upside.
Bold Prediction
I love a good bold prediction. Just remember, for it to be bold it also has to be unlikely so don’t go betting the farm. Here it is. Deshaun Watson, having returned to former glory, has the Browns at 11- 5, tied atop the AFC North with the Cincinnati Bengals as they head into week 18 showdown. Fantasy heads who drafted Watson crow about their foresight, as he sits at QB4 falling only to Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes (in that order).
What did I say, bold right?
