Fantasy Football

David Montgomery Fantasy Preview

David Montgomery 1

David Montgomery Fantasy Preview

At 26 years old, David Montgomery has only been in the league for 4 years. Is it me or does it feel much longer than that?

Montgomery is one of those backs who, from a seasonal fantasy perspective, always seems to be a bit undervalued but is often a chalky play in DFS due to pricing and matchups. In any event, gone he is from the Bears, and it is in Motor City where he finds himself for 2023. He will share the Detroit backfield with 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs, and our very own Leo Sells has a nice breakdown of the rookie RB. Before we get too far into the weeds with that, I argue it’s important to note Montgomery’s durability as he never played less than 13 games in a season, and he has never had less than 200 carries.

David Montgomery has also always been one of those backs who has really needed either a good offensive line or volume in order to reach maximum fantasy output. He’s going to have a good offensive line this year, but is he going to have the volume?

Latest Odds

  • Most rushing TDs in regular season  +2,800  (bet365)
  • 10+ rushing TDs  +400 (bet365)
  • Most rushing yards in regular season  +5,000 (bet365)
  • To have 1,000+ rushing yards  +350 (bet365)
  • Offensive Player of the Year  +20,000 (BetMGM)

PROPS

  • Higher/Lower 6.5 rushing TDs (Underdog)
  • Higher/Lower 750.5 rushing yards (Underdog)

David Montgomery has topped 1,000 yards but once in his career, so that’s out. He’s also eclipsed 6.5 rushing TDs just twice, and that was when he was a clear top dog in an offense. While he’s supposedly going to be getting the goal line work for Detroit and therefore the Jamaal Williams role from last year, expecting a repeat performance is not something I like to bank on, so I’m out on pretty much all of these offerings except the 750.5 rushing yard option from Underdog. Montgomery has never rushed for less than 800 yards, and Williams did top 1,000 yards rushing in this offense last season, so I’m comfortable with Monty eclipsing 750.5.

Current ADP

  • ADP – 75
  • RB ADP – 29

ADPs fluctuate depending on what site you use, but most are suggestive of the 7th round of snake drafts for Mr. Montgomery. I’m simply avoiding this Detroit situation in snake redraft leagues this year. Montgomery is going to have a pretty close to even split with Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of snaps, bit their roles will be different. In clear running situations and goal line, Montgomery should get the majority of the snaps. In passing and 3rd down situations, it’s likely going to be Gibbs, but Gibbs will also receive rushing work whereas Montgomery sees only a few targets. While some fantasy owners might be okay with only half of a tandem backfield, I’d rather have an RB who is going to be on the field in more situations and whose overall usage is going to be higher.

Fantasy Insight and Value

If you’ve been following my work, you’ll know that I like having both backs in a tandem backfield. Beyond both being in play each week, if you draft the two of them, you’ll have a clear path to production should one of them get hurt. The cost of acquiring both Gibbs and Montgomery, however, is too much and too risky for my liking in snake drafts as Gibbs is going in the 4th round of drafts. It is doable and potentially viable, I just have not liked how my team looks at other positions when I attempt this strategy.

In auction drafts, however, I can see the scenario where acquiring both of them makes sense depending on the cost and your allocation of fantasy dollars at other positions. If you believe that Gibbs and Montgomery will indeed match what Swift and Williams did last year, then that’s 361 rushing attempts, over 1,600 rushing yards, and 25 total TDs. But like I said, first and goal opportunities were aplenty for Detroit in 2022 and counting on that happening again could be a mistake.

Montgomery has gone over 1,000 yards rushing one time and it was only to the tune of 1,070 yards. He’s also never scored more than 8 rushing TDs in a single season. While he could potentially top both of those numbers in 2023, my confidence meter on it happening is not high. I have Brian Robinson going for well over 1,000 yards this season, and you can get him 2 or 3 rounds later.

Montgomery’s career YPC average is 3.9, which is not much to get excited about. Jamaal Williams’ YPC last year was 4.1.

Dynasty Value

At 26 years old, Montgomery still has some dynasty value. I’d rather be going after the younger Jahmyr Gibbs in drafts though. If you have Montgomery in dynasty, I’d urge you, depending on your RB stable, to try and get Gibbs. If you’re already in a dynasty league and have your draft upcoming, it’s reasonable to expect that Gibbs will be the 2nd overall player off the board after Bijan Robinson. Securing that pick would likely require a trade, but you could also offer Montgomery up to whomever has that 2nd pick.

Bold Prediction

David Montgomery will be right around that 1,000 yard mark but have less than 11 rushing TDs.

*This is my personal opinion, which may or may not reflect site projections.*

 

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