Davante Adams Fantasy
In one of the most shocking moves of the offseason, Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders for a 1st and 2nd round pick in this past year’s draft. This creates fantasy chaos in both his former home and his new home. This article will look at his arrival in Sin City, home to some of the best payout casinos on and off the field and how it will impact him and his teammates on the Raiders.
The Raiders supported multiple fantasy-relevant players last season such as Derek Carr (QB13), Josh Jacobs (RB12), Hunter Renfrow (WR10), and Darren Waller (TE7 in PPG). This fantasy robust offense now adds superstar wide receiver Davante Adams who is sure to demand targets. Is there enough to feed everyone though?
The short answer is no. Derek Carr averaged 36.8 passing attempts per game this past season, just shy of his best year of 37.4 A/G. It would not be surprising if he regressed back to his career average of 35.1, which would leave even fewer targets available for an offense that has more competition for those targets. Although, Adams is used to playing in an offense with not a lot of targets to go around. Aaron Rodgers has career attempts per game average of 33.4, but Adams was hyper-targeted and we are not sure that will continue in 2022.
Derek Carr is no slouch of a QB, but he trails Aaron Rodgers significantly in efficiency. Carr has a career TD rate of 4.3%, while Rodgers’ is 6.3%. Carr’s career Y/A is 7.1, and Rodgers’ is 7.8. So even if Adams was able to maintain his absurd 31.6% target share, he likely would lose yards and touchdowns due to the QB downgrade. This doesn’t make him undraftable or anything, it’s just something to consider when evaluating his range of outcomes.
Let’s now examine his impact on his offense. As I mentioned earlier, the Raiders gave us multiple top 12 finishes from various players, but none of them finished higher at their respective position than Davante Adams, who finished as the WR2 last season. He figures to be the #1 option in the Raiders’ offense, so expect a downgrade for all other pass catchers. Also, be prepared for Hunter Renfrow to be most impacted. This is already reflected in his ADP, as he is currently being drafted as the WR32 off the board. This is a rapid drop, considering he finished as the WR10 last season. Part of this decline is due to Adams’ arrival, but part of it is due to Waller’s injury last year which allowed Renfrow to be the focal point of the offense for half the season.
Speaking of Waller, expect his production to drop, but probably not nearly as much as Renfrow. He has more sustained production, finishing as a top 7 TE in PPG in 2021, 2020, and 2019. Expect a slight dip in targets and in TDs, but that’s likely already baked into his ADP at TE5.
Another player to consider is Josh Jacobs. I think he will be affected the least out of all of the Raider’s skill positions. He’s not a receiving back, as evidenced by a career average of just 3.2 targets per game. Adams also won’t eat into Jacobs’ carries, so his overall usage should remain similar to last year.
Finally, let’s talk about Derek Carr. The presence of Davante Adams on the field will absolutely be beneficial, but fantasy managers should not get too excited about Carr’s potential in 2022. He still rarely offers more than 100 rushing yards and a touchdown or two in a single season, so his ceiling is significantly capped. However, having Adams line up against the opponent will give Carr more quality options to throw to, so he may see a bump in TDs or passing yards, but not enough to be considered anything more than a streamer in redraft.
All of this leads to most of the Raiders’ skill players probably being over-drafted. Unless Derek Carr significantly increases his attempts this upcoming season, it’s hard to see how there will be enough targets to go around to justify the WR3 ADP of Davante Adams. If his ADP stays that high, I recommend avoiding him in 2022.
Jacob White is an avid fan of all things NFL, particularly fantasy football and the Chicago Bears. He is currently studying Economics at Wabash College where he hopes to learn the skills to further his career in the sports entertainment industry. He specializes in redraft, DFS, and best ball, where he routinely finishes at a profit, including a 2020 13-0 finish on the high-stakes KFFSC platform. You can find him on Twitter @FF_JacobWhite for additional advice on all things football and the semi-occasional homer tweet.