We are creatures of habit when it comes to things like sports betting. Sometimes this leads us to not seek out our best potential value on a bet like predicting the winner of the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. With online sports betting becoming legal over the last few years in states like New Jersey, local-based sites like NJ-Odds.com have popped up and not only offer comparisons of local sports books but also offer some handy tips for those new to the world of sports betting in general.
I’ll use this site as a quick reference to look at the top-10 favorites to win the Super Bowl this season based on moneylines as it’s a great example of how you can find value in varying books.
Value in the Top-4 Favorites
The Patriots and Chiefs are the obvious early favorites for an appearance in the Super Bowl as we head into the 2019-2020 season. The reigning champion Pats are currently offering value at +700 at Sugarhouse in NJ compared to only a +550 line at Caesars. The industry is leaning towards crowning an AFC team champs again this season with the Chiefs also bringing in value at +800 at Sugarhouse compared to +700 at Caesars.
If you’re liking an NFC team to rule this season, you’ll want to shift your attention towards Caesars. The Rams are a fairly low risk/high reward play at +1000 at Caesars compared to +900 at SH. The Saints bring in the biggest differential between the two books inside the top-4 with a value of +900 at SH and +1200 at Caesars. This is a pretty impressive swing favoring a team that got screwed out of a Super Bowl appearance last season.
Biggest Swings in the Bottom-4
The top-4 teams are obviously safer plays, but it’s nice to see that you can still find some value with your money. If you want to look inside the top-10 for greater value, however, you want to look at teams roughly ranked 7-10.
The Chargers offer the greatest swing inside the top-10 between Sugarhouse and Caesars with a swing difference of +1000. Sugarhouse is only listing at +1500 while Caesars will give you a +2500 value. This is huge if you’re looking to put money on the bolts.
The NFC fills out the bottom of the top-10 with the Bears, Eagles, and Packers. The Bears offer the second biggest swing inside the top-10 with a +800 differential favoring SH who is offering a line at +1600 with Caesars only offering +800. You can double your money here betting with the right book and a heaping dash of chance that the Bears take it all for the first time since 1986. You can also find value in the rival Green Bay Packers at SH with a solid payout of +2000, offering a value of +600 in total over Caesars.
If you want to take your chances with the Eagles claiming the gridiron throne for the second time in three years then Caesars gives you your best bet at +2000, a +400 value over SH. I’m liking this bet with a full season of Carson Wentz healthy and the team welcoming back their prodigal son DeSean Jackson to fill that deep threat void, this could really be a moneymaker. Jackson and Wentz have reportedly been developing great chemistry early and look like a perfect match when comparing strengths according to Warren Sharp.
The bottom line for this method inside the top-10 is that if you’re playing it safe with a favorite pick, there is still some value to be had by putting your money down in the right place. But, the real bargain comes outside the top-5. If you’re looking at taking a shot on a team like the Chargers or Bears you can double your money by choosing the right book or put less down upfront and get a bigger return.