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Chris Hogan Fantasy Value Spike Unjustified

Chris Hogan Fantasy Value 2018

It wouldn’t be the NFL offseason without some juicy drama coming out of the New England Patriots facilities. It was announced recently that Pats wideout, Julian Edelman, will be facing a four-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy. This is tough news for Edelman who is trying to bounce back after missing all of last season with a full tear to his ACL. This news immediately lit a fire under the stock of fellow Patriots wideout, Chris Hogan, as a perceived next man up. But, how much does this really boost his value?

Chris Hogan Fantasy ADP

Chris Hogan Fantasy ADP provided by FantasyFootballCalculator.com

Before the news of Edelman’s suspension, Hogan provided fair value carrying an early average draft position of WR37 while Edelman’s ADP was WR26. These rankings soon spiked as Hogan was suddenly perceived by fantasy owners to be a huge beneficiary of Edelman being out for the first month of regular season play.

This situation has the looks of Hogan suddenly getting overvalued on fantasy football draft days.

Chris Hogan FantasyThe differences between Edelman and Hogan are quite substantial when it comes to both their style of play and use in the Patriots offense. Edelman is a high volume slot receiver who has averaged 133 targets, 89 receptions and 956 receiving yards per season dating back to 2013. That includes Edelman’s shortened 2015 season where he only played nine games. He has always done damage in the short-to-intermediate range of the field and has been a reliable security blanket for Tom Brady. Edelman has worked his way into being a key feature player in what is one of the most complex offensive schemes in the league. Hogan, on the other hand, has only managed 117 targets, 72 receptions and 1,119 receiving yards over the last two seasons combined with the Pats.

While Hogan poses a larger threat in the red zone compared to Edelman, he has never been the same type of feature player who could lead a team’s wide receiver corps in his career. Even dating back to Hogan’s days in Buffalo, he still usually only managed to average around 60 targets and 38 receptions per season. Hogan has also occasionally struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, something that held him back from having a true breakout last season. This isn’t a situation where there is a changing of the guard and a young guy is coming in to take the spot of an elder. Hogan is a 30-year-old receiver, coming into his seventh year in the league with a painfully average career of stats behind him. A big breakout just isn’t likely.

You could easily point to Hogan’s early season success last year and say, “Well, if he played a full 16 games, he would have been on pace for 59 receptions, 780 yards, and 8 touchdowns.” The problem with that is, he didn’t play a full 16 games. And even if he did, that would have all been done without Edelman on the field for the entire season. So that could be looked at as a best-case scenario ceiling for Hogan which still just puts him in more of a boom or bust WR2 role for fantasy purposes. But Edelman is only missing four games this time around, and when he comes back, you can bet he will regain his role as a target hog on the offense.

A lot has changed during the offseason when looking at the landscape of the Patriots offense. The team lost wideouts, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. The Patriots also spent a first-round draft pick on Georgia running back, Sony Michel, who could be featured heavily. With Tom Brady now another year older and no clear successor behind him, signs are pointing towards a bit of a new look offense this season for the Patriots. The loss of both Cooks and Amendola could help Hogan’s cause, but the only problem with that is the team also went out and signed Jordan Matthews who has reportedly shown well early in OTA’s and proved during his time with the Eagles that he could be a steady contributor on offense. Matthews could easily battle Hogan for targets, especially in Edelman’s absence.

Chris Hogan Fantasy Value

The verdict here is that Chris Hogan’s Fantasy value really shouldn’t change too much with Edelman being out for only four games. His clearest path to success this season will be trying his best to fill the deep threat void left by Brandin Cooks, but that still will come with maddening inconsistency. Hogan deserves a slight bump in value perhaps from his early WR37 ADP given his chemistry with Brady and red zone usage, but should easily remain outside of the top 25 wide receivers and probably belongs somewhere in the WR30-35 range. Hogan is a safe bet to be more of a weekly boom or bust WR3 type who will carry some big game potential and could have some early season DFS sleeper appeal with the exception of a daunting Week 2 road matchup against the Jaguars who allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season. If Hogan is able to manage a hot start, it may be wise to consider shopping him early on the trade market in season-long leagues before Edelman regains his role as the lead wideout on this offense.

 

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John Ferguson

John Ferguson

John Ferguson is an avid Fantasy Football fanatic with 10+ years of experience in friends and family leagues, paying public leagues (MFL) and DFS Tournaments. Ferguson specializes in draft strategies, trade negotiations (Buy Low/Sell High) and DFS value picks amongst other parts of fantasy football analysis. When Ferguson isn’t spending time skimming over stats while at the beach, he follows the Oakland Athletics closely as a diehard fan and enjoys spending quality time with his beautiful wife and three children. A Native of Monterey, California, Ferguson now calls the island of Kaua'i home.

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