Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football
One of the hardest aspects of Fantasy Football is knowing when to trade away a player that is about to cool off. We all have a tendency to hang on to our best players too long and miss opportunities to trade them when their stock is high. The best fantasy owners know when to buy low and sell high and aren’t too attached to any player on their rosters throughout the season.
Every week, the goal of this article is going to be to identify players that could be undervalued or overvalued in the fantasy community and try to leverage that information to make your team better. A well-timed trade can be one of the best ways to jumpstart your fantasy roster and get you to the top of the standings or solidify your first-place squad. We’ll be looking at three players from each side and trying to highlight specific targets to chase.
Fantasy Football Buy Candidates
Jets | Wide Receiver
I’m happy that Robby Anderson went off in this past game and put up a highlight-reel 92-yard touchdown reception. That’s because it masked how good Jamison Crowder was once again with quarterback Sam Darnold under center. In those 2 games, Crowder has racked up a ridiculous 26 targets, 20 receptions, and 197 yards. That’s good for 39.7 PPR points and basically 20 per game. On the season, that would have him slot in as the WR5 on a per-game basis and he hasn’t even found the end zone yet.
Now let’s get into the fun part. He does have New England this week but that should mean a major target share since Anderson should see Patriots corner, Stephon Gilmore. The week after, he gets the Jacksonville defense that just dealt away corner Jalen Ramsey. That’s a big loss and then the schedule gets incredible. From Weeks 9-14, he sees Miami twice, the Giants, the Redskins, the Raiders, and the Bengals. Crowder was only 43% owned on Yahoo before waivers ran, but that will go up and he’s worth a trade if you missed him.
Packers | Running Back
This is an observation on the fantasy community overall and I’ve been guilty of it myself, so don’t think it’s a slight. We have a tendency to fall into group think sometimes and when we decide a player is talented, we hold onto it. A case in point is Aaron Jones for the Packers. Yes, he is very talented but Jamaal Williams is being viewed as an equal in this offense by the coaching staff and that’s the important factor, not our opinion.
During the last 2 games that Jones and Williams have played together, Williams has over 85 snaps and over 2220 scrimmage yards. Compare that to Jones who has under 60 snaps and under 80 scrimmage yards, not to mention a fumble and an egregious drop on Monday Night Football. Williams is a vital part of this offense and he’s another player that the ownership wasn’t high on before Wednesday. Use the community’s perception of this backfield to your advantage.
Rams | Wide Receiver
It’s been an up and down season for the Rams and Brandin Cooks has been no exception to that. He’s sitting as the WR50(!) right now in PPR settings, which is crazy to think of given the prolific Rams offense and preseason expectations. He’s just 40th in targets at a round 40 and things just haven’t clicked yet. However, some of his metrics bring much more promise than he’s shown and he’s got the track record to back it up.
Cooks is 21st in air yards and he leads the Rams team in that category at 511 yards, narrowly edging out Cooper Kupp. What’s interesting is the shift in aDOT from last season. In 2018, Cooks led at 12.7 and Woods was over 11 while Kupp was at 8.1. This year, Kupp and Woods are both under 8.5 while Cooks is over 13 yards per target. That means the ball hasn’t bounced his way yet and there are much better days ahead for Cooks. He has finished as the WR13, WR15, and WR11 in the past 3 seasons. I really think he’s ready to return to his normal levels of production sooner than later.
Fantasy Football Sell Candidates
Vikings | Wide Receiver
I’ll join the chorus and encourage you to move on from Stefon Diggs while you can. This is painful for me because I have quite the soft spot for Diggs but he’s not in an offense that is the best to utilize his talents. This past week saw a massive game for 160+ yards and 3 TD’s. That brings his touchdown total to 4 on the year and 39% of his yardage on the season. It also represents about 33% of his receptions on the season and it’s so hard to project this moving forward.
The Vikings are dead last in passing attempts per game at 25.8 attempts. With Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook in this offense as well, with scattered targets to the secondary pieces, there’s not a lot of opportunity for Diggs. The Vikings clearly want to run the ball and play defense, leaving Diggs closer to the receiver that has 4 of 6 games so far under 50 yards and with no more than 3 receptions.
Eagles | Tight End
One of my concerns with Zach Ertz coming into the season was there was almost no way he could see the same amount of targets as he did in 2018. Ertz was right about 10 per game last season and he is close to that this year, but he’s converting about 10% less of those targets this year. He’s also on pace to see about 25% fewer red zone targets so for me, I’d be looking to capitalize on Ertz being the TE5 and move along to another player.
He still has a bye week ahead of him and that’s a big deal at this time of the season. If you can get a player that has already had a bye, you’re basically gaining a game. My target would honestly be Darren Waller of the Raiders. Waller as a WR level target share of 28.2% and he’s 11th in receptions on the season. The amazing part of that is he’s the only member of the top 15 that has had a week off at this juncture. Ertz still has the cache as a top 3 TE and I’m targeting Waller to gain a week with a safer outcome week to week.
Patriots | Defense
I have to say, this is a first for me. I’m pretty sure I’ve never suggested dealing a D/ST, let alone one that has been as good as New England. They have been worth about a 15-20 running back and the same goes for the WR. That’s quite impressive and some of that has to be weighed against the competition. They have faced teams quarterbacked by Ben Roethlisberger(likely injured), the combo of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Colt McCoy, and Daniel Jones without his best WR, TE, and RB. The road gets harder from here on out.
On the backend of the schedule, they have the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, and Chiefs which isn’t going to be the easiest slate of games. If you can get a flex type player or even an RB2/WR2, you should be moving them in a heartbeat.