Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football: Week 5

Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football: Week 5 7

Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football

Buy Low Sell High Fantasy FootballOne of the hardest aspects of Fantasy Football is knowing when to trade away a player that is about to cool off. We all have a tendency to hang on to our best players too long and miss opportunities to trade them when their stock is high. The best fantasy owners know when to buy low and sell high and aren’t too attached to any player on their rosters throughout the season.

Every week, the goal of this article is going to be to identify players that could be undervalued or overvalued in the fantasy community and try to leverage that information to make your team better. A well-timed trade can be one of the best ways to jumpstart your fantasy roster and get you to the top of the standings or solidify your first-place squad. We’ll be looking at three players from each side and trying to find a guideline for who you should target.

Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football: Week 5 8

Fantasy Football Buy Candidates

Will Fuller

Texans | Wide Receiver 

This is going to be a popular choice from a lot of outlets, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong to fall in line with the group on this one. Fuller has yet to eclipse 69 yards or 5 receptions in any game, while not finding the end zone either. All of these trends are due to change sooner or later, and they could start this week. He’s 12th in air yards on the season and his aDOT(average depth of target) is a massive 17.3 yards.

Among receivers with at least 20 targets, only DeVante Parker of the Dolphins and Demarcus Robinson of the Chiefs have a higher aDOT and these targets are very valuable. The Falcons are in town this week and with the loss of safety Keanu Neal, they made Marcus Mariota look like a good NFL quarterback last week. I’d love to go after DeAndre Hopkins as well, but Fuller is more realistic and his best days are in front of him.

David Montgomery

Bears | Running Back

Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football: Week 5 9

It has been a frustrating first month for Montgomery truthers. We thought we were promised a 3 down workhorse after coach Matt Nagy gushed about him and it made sense from the draft capital as well. Not only was Montgomery the 73rd overall pick, but Chicago also sacrificed draft picks to come up and get him. The pieces fit with a Jordan Howard trade that Montgomery would split somewhat with Tarik Cohen until he was a dud with just 7 touches in Week 1. The past 2 weeks have seen a reversal of fortune for Montgomery as he’s recorded at least 16 touches and played above 65% of the snaps in each game.

True, the results haven’t been anything special but it’s important to remember that he’s faced the Vikings and the Washington game he didn’t get many touches until late. Even with some shaky QB play, Montgomery is going to be a very solid RB2 with 20 touches a week and a team-leading 8 red zone rush attempts. Where it really gets good is Week 10, when he faces the Rams, Lions, Giants, Lions again, Cowboys, Packers, and Chiefs. Only Dallas is a bad matchup and four of those matchups are inside the top 10 easiest in the league. If you’re sitting at 3-1 or 4-0, this is the perfect time to get running back depth that could be a high-end piece at the end of the year.

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Marquise Brown

Ravens | Wide Receiver

Much like Fuller, “Hollywood” Brown is a prime buy candidate since he’s been quiet the past couple of weeks but the underlying stats still tell a very positive story. Brown burst onto the scene when he scorched the Dolphins in Week 1 but the past couple of weeks have seen him only rack up 6 receptions and 71 yards on 16 targets. He ranks third in air yards across the NFL, which might help explain the 51% completion rate between him and Lamar Jackson.

With Jackson completing over 64% of his passes, it really stands to reason that Brown has been the subject of some poor luck so far. He still leads the team in aDOT and yards overall, so with a couple of more completions, he could get closer to the form we saw in Week 1. Brown has maintained a 25% target share on the year and is the clear #1 receiver in a very good offense with a QB who sits 7th in yards per attempt on the season.

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Fantasy Football Sell Candidates

James Conner

Steelers | Running Back

James ConnerIt hurts my Steeler bones to say this, but this offense should not be taken seriously right now. I mean, the Wildcat? Are we seriously going to consider that to be a viable offense in this day and age in the NFL? I’m certainly not buying that quarterback Mason Rudolph has shown either the unwillingness or the inability through the play call to go deep. He only has 8 deep attempts(20+ yards) in two full games and half of another. When a team would run the Wildcat, that shows some lack of faith in Rudolph and that will trickle down to Conner when he doesn’t face the Bengals anymore.

Among 28 running backs with at least 43 carries this season, Conner ranks 22nd in yards after contact and has 139 rushing yards through 4 games, 38th in the league. Jaylen Samuels also played 46% of the snaps on Monday, taking 18 touches. That will severely hinder Conner’s ceiling and with no Ben Roethlisberger, it’s time to get off this ride if you can.

Tyrell Williams

Raiders | Wide Reciever

It has been a tumultuous season for the Raiders with the Antonio Brown saga playing out, but Williams stepped up Week 1 to go for 6/105/1 and it looked like he was a steal in drafts or even through waivers before the season started. Since then, he’s continued to produce to be the WR18 in PPR after four weeks. So, why are we selling hen he’s the WR1 for an offense and is a top 20 player at his position?

For one, he’s not the #1 in his offense. Sure, he’s the #1¬†receiver but tight end Darren Waller is the top option in Oakland with a 30.5% target share. Williams sits at 19% and his production has been mostly touchdowns since Week 1. Since then, he’s not exceeded 46 yards or 5 receptions but he’s scored in each game. I’m not a mathematician but I’m fairly certain that Williams is not scoring 16 touchdowns. When they go away, the floor drops for him significantly and it’s time to move on with Derek Carr ranking 19th in deep passes, the skill set Williams excels at the most.

Cooper Kupp

Rams | Wide Receiver 

I want to be clear when I talk about Kupp as a sell candidate because I don’t believe there’s anything all that fluky about his performance. OK, maybe Jared Goff isn’t going to throw near 70 times every week but the point here is Kupp looks like he really should approach 100 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 10 touchdowns. His 25% target share doesn’t suggest regression either, but can he really maintain being the WR2 through the entire season? That’s a tough question to answer. If you can leverage him as a top 5 WR right now to get an upgrade at running back, I would really think about it. Kupp is likely to fall back to WR12-15 when it’s all said and done, so he’s super valuable. If he can be a pice in a deal for an elite running back, I’d be pulling the trigger for sure.

 

 

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Good Luck

About the author

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Adam Strangis

I'm a sports fanatic who wears it on my sleeve (seriously, I have a Pittsburgh sports tattoo). I'm just a big scruffy looking nerf-herder who somehow managed to marry an incredible and supportive woman, have a wonderful family and a sweetheart dog. When I'm not at work, odds are I'm watching sports or the latest comic book movie. Life is good, it's just much better with fantasy football in it. The sarcastic and above it all fantasy analysis is overdone, I'm here to bring it back to what you need to know with a terrible sense of humor. Let's win some fantasy titles!

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