Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football: Week 4

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Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football

Waiver wire acquisitions aren’t the only way to transform your team after draft day is over. The art of the trade is knowing when to sell a hot hand about to cool and acquire a player with an upward trajectory. The purpose of this article is to identify players whose value has peaked and possibly trading them for a player with brighter days ahead.

Sometimes there’s nothing wrong with staying put, so always keep value in mind and demand more if you’re the owner of a player who is trending upwards. Timing is everything, especially in fantasy, so use this article as a tool to help your team turn the corner no matter where you stand this year.

Fantasy Football Buy Candidates

Joe Mixon

Bengals – Running Back

Joe Mixon hasn’t done much to merit his high ADP this season, but the volume has been there. He’s off to a very familiar start, with only 27 points through three games again and no touchdowns in 2020. However, he’s had at least 19 touches in every game thus far, putting him on pace for 315 total. The touchdowns will come and he will continue to get stronger as the season goes; last season, he averaged 27 touches a game during the last four games, with 5 touchdowns in the last eight games. Owners won’t be willing to part with Mixon for just anything, but send an offer and try to find a middle ground. If you need an RB1 for the price of an RB2, then look no further than Mixon.

D.J. Moore

Panthers – Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore’s start to the season feels eerily similar to Joe Mixon. Another highly drafted player, expected to be a WR1 or key piece on many teams. The volume is there with 26 targets (9th in NFL), 230 yards (14th in NFL), but zero touchdowns – just like Mixon. The lack of touchdowns are impacting the way his owners feel about him, and he still finished as WR16 in PPR scoring last year with only 4 touchdowns. Moore had a 5.69 Consistency Score (CS), which ranked fifth among receivers in 2019. This speaks directly to a poor start this season that still has him ranked as WR21 through the first three weeks. Moore provides consistency through a high floor, even when he’s not reaching his ceiling.

Zach Ertz

Eagles – Tight End

This was supposed to be the year that Tight Ends offered value late into drafts, but it feels the same as every other year over the past half-decade. Sure, some guys have produced well for a game, but consistency week in and week out is scarce. With Goedert being placed on IR, Ertz is not only going to be the main attraction again but the only viable one for the Eagles. Ertz currently sits at TE11 in PPR scoring; look for that number to steadily climb over the next few weeks. Try to catch an Ertz owner sleeping at the wheel before this trend starts. If you’re frustrated with your own TE position, consider offering value at a position of depth.

 

Fantasy Football Sell Candidates

Josh Allen

Bills – Quarterback

Okay, hear me out on this one. I know that Russell Wilson and Josh Allen are currently the Fantasy MVP front runners, with the latter providing league-winning upside based on his ADP. I don’t doubt that Allen will continue to be a top 5 QB, but his value is through the roof as he has 93.9 fantasy points through the first three weeks – good for 3rd most all-time. If your team is riding high and you have plenty of depth, then continue on the same course. However, if you’ve been one of the many teams destroyed by injuries or a bad draft, then use your most valuable asset to fill the void in depleted areas. This mainly applies to one QB leagues, as many options can provide upside. By no means should you feel like you have to sell Allen, but put him on the block to let people know he is obtainable and see what happens.

Justin Jefferson

Vikings – Wide Receiver

This one is pretty obvious. After only 7 points in PPR scoring the first two weeks, Justin Jefferson exploded for 7 receptions, 175 yards, and a score. He was targeted 9 times in Week 3, compared to 6 times combined over the first two weeks. In Dynasty, he showed his high ceiling, so you may be able to get a valuable player if you’re in win-now mode. In Redraft, I wouldn’t want to bank on him consistently providing usable numbers quite yet. Even if you picked up Jefferson via waivers, strike while the iron is hot and turn an investment of literally zero capital into a player you’ve been eyeing.

Jerick McKinnon & Jeff Wilson Jr.

49ers – Running Backs

Very few teams can offer two startable running backs for fantasy purposes. The 49ers and Browns are probably the only two that I could even trust to consistently accomplish this feat. However, Raheem Mostert didn’t get placed on IR, meaning his MCL sprain may not be as serious as initially thought. Wilson showed off his talent in this deep backfield with two scores, and McKinnon scored for the second week in a row, even though he exited early with a rib injury. McKinnon says that he will be fine, but it’s a long season; I’d rather trade immediate success for something more sustainable. You may have used waivers for these players in recent weeks as well, so the ability to increase the overall value of your team at little expense is always appealing.