Buy Low Sell High Fantasy Football
Waiver wire acquisitions aren’t the only way to transform your team after draft day is over. The art of the trade is knowing when to sell a hot hand about to cool and acquire a player with an upward trajectory. The purpose of this article is to identify players whose value has peaked and possibly trading them for a player with brighter days ahead.
Sometimes there’s nothing wrong with staying put, so always keep value in mind and demand more if you’re the owner of a player who is trending upwards. Timing is everything, especially in fantasy, so use this article as a tool to help your team turn the corner no matter where you stand this year.
Fantasy Football Buy Candidates
Jaguars – Running Back
After a 102 yard, 1 TD performance with a presence in the passing game, James Robinson may not be your typical “Buy Low” candidate. However, the door is about to be slammed shut on this rookie running back flying under the radar. Over the next four games, Jacksonville takes on Miami, Cincinnati, Houston, and Detroit. These teams have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL during the first two weeks. Jacksonville’s offense has shown that it’s going to be a factor in fantasy this season, and Robinson may have the biggest and most consistent role to play. Look to add him now as the price could skyrocket as quickly as Week 3 and continue to grow against weak run defenses.
Bears – Wide Receiver
As it stands today, Robinson is WR50 in PPR scoring with only 18.6 points to his name in 2020. This is a far cry from the WR1 expectations that he was drafted under. As a Robinson owner myself, I’m becoming frustrated with the lack of return in my investment, but patience is key. In Week 3, Chicago takes on an Atlanta defense that has given up the 2nd most passing yards this year, including 450 yards last week, featuring two 100-yard receivers. Robinson has seen 18 targets on the season, good for a 25% target share, so look for him to get on track sooner than later.
Falcons – Wide Receiver
Many entered the season questioning if the Cowboys could support three 1,000-yard receivers, but it may be the Falcons that have the best chance of taking that accolade. Atlanta has dropped back to pass 91 times this season, 63% of their offensive plays, which is lower than their league-leading 67% in 2019. Gage’s role is growing, as he was on the field for a career-high 83% of the Falcons offensive plays in Week 3. Not only has he seen 21 targets, but he commands the Wildcat offense where he dropped a dime on Julio Jones who uncharacteristically dropped a touchdown. Gage isn’t just a fad — he averaged over 6 targets a game in the second half of last season. Look for him to continue to be a big part of a high-powered passing offense that distributes the ball each week.
Fantasy Football Sell Candidates
Panthers – Running Back
As we sit at the precipice of Week 3, I never imagined I would advise selling Christian McCaffrey, yet here I am. 2019’s overall #1 player and 2020’s consensus first pick still has a ton a value going forward but with a huge risk attached. A move like this would have serious implications for your team, so careful evaluation of your situation is required before even considering it. If you have depth and can withstand being without your best player for a few weeks, if not more, then stay put. However, if you find yourself 0-2 or thin at RB, now is the time to demand a king’s ransom for CMC. Carolina is off to an 0-2 start itself; the season could be lost before McCaffrey can retake the field. If McCaffrey’s ankle sprain lingers, then it may not prove worthy of bringing him back at all. No matter what you do, there’s a risk if you’re a McCaffrey owner.
FYI: This contradicts our Dynasty Advice article but obviously, but I’m speaking about Selling CMC in Redraft Leagues not keeper or Dynasty
The #Panthers have a late bye week, so if CMC misses 6 weeks, you’ll get four fantasy games out of him (not including playoffs).
But would the team even risk bringing him back if the they only had 1 or 2 wins? They might shut him down for the year. https://t.co/xYRSl7UL6X pic.twitter.com/nrtZOhN3N0
— Gridiron Experts (@GridironExperts) September 21, 2020
Browns – Wide Receiver
Many were excited to see Odell Beckam Jr. haul in 4 catches for 74 yards and a TD last Thursday. Wait — now 17.4 points gets us excited about OBJ? Last season, he only had two games that exceeded this output. I’m not sure if Mayfield and Beckam will ever develop the chemistry needed to consistently produce like we became accustomed to when he was a Giant. Cleveland’s two-headed backfield of Chubb and Hunt appears to be the key to their success, and Beckham was even shut down in catch-up mode against the Raven’s in week 1. Odell’s name may be the reason that he is still a “Sell High” candidate, so try to move him before the novelty wears off completely.
Rams – Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp’s role in the offense is what scares me. He finished Week 2 with 100 yards from scrimmage, but only has 11 targets on the year, which is still a 20% target share. However, not all targets are created equal. As primarily a slot receiver, his average depth of target is 4.1 yards, which ranks 102nd in the NFL. He also failed to receive a single deep target over the first two weeks of the season and was only targeted once in the red-zone. Los Angeles looks to run the ball in the red-zone and targets Woods and Higbee more often near the end-zone. Kupp offers a consistent floor, but having to rely on YAC for big plays will limit his ability to provide a high ceiling.
Jason Staples, better known to friends as “Stapes,” has been playing fantasy football since he was in high school in the 90’s. He has a 7x Diamond rating in Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football with much credit to his team “There’s No L in Stapes.” He has 13 years of experience in education and currently serves as a middle school Reading Specialist, helping students strengthen their literacy skills. He also coaches middle school football, focusing on wide receivers and defensive backs. His favorite aspect of Fantasy Football is hosting an annual draft party as the commish each year with close friends. Jason currently resides in Virginia with his wife and two dogs.
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