Bucky Irving Fantasy 2025
Bucky Irving came out of almost nowhere in 2024 to carry the ball 207 times for 1,122 and 8 TDs. That’s good for an average of 5.4 yards per carry. He also threw in 47 catches for 392 yards as well. This made him RB15 on the standard fantasy season, and he did all this while Rachaad White was still there. White himself carried the ball 144 times for 613 yards while also adding 51 receptions.
In standard 12-team leagues, Irving is being drafted#17 overall, middle of the second round, as RB9. Irving was a 4th round pick out of Oregon in 2024, and he has initially made Tampa Bay look savvy for having drafted him. How savvy should we be with this pick, though? Mid second round is a high price to pay for someone who is sharing this backfield, but let’s look at it more closely.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Changes
The biggest thing to happen to the Bucs in the offseason, and this was for the 4th year in a row, is that they lost OC Liam Coen and are welcoming in new OC Josh Grizzard. This is a significant promotion for Grizzard, who served as the Buccaneers’ passing game coordinator in 2024. The promotion from within tells me that HC Todd Bowles and GM Jason Licht are happy with the offense that Baker Mayfield is running and want to continue to execute something similar. That offense is a West Coast offense that uses the run to set up the play-action pass and deep shots. Mayfield loves his play action passes, and this team is looking to throw.
There were not many changes on this offensive line in the offseason. The group’s strength is anchored on LT Tristan Wirfs who is a top 10 tackle in the league and may be the best passing block LT in football. The rest of the line is good to mediocre, but Irving was able to succeed despite their subpar run blocking.
What Are the Odds?
- MVP +20,000 to + 40,000 depending on the book
- OPOY +5,000 to +6,000
- Most rushing yards +1700 to +2500
- O/U 1,025 rushing yards
- O/U 7.5 rushing TDs
I don’t want any of these odds. MVP, OPOY, and most rush yards are all highly improbable on a team that wants to throw.
Both over/unders are right in line with what Irving did in 2024. Since I am a betting man, I would lean toward the rush yard prop going over and for the rush TD prop to be right around 7.5.
[the_ad id=’104521′]Fantasy Impact
Bucky Irving fits the profile of players I try to avoid in this scenario: a player who basically no one knew a year ago who has suddenly vaulted into being a 2nd round fantasy pick. He’s also undersized for an RB, which historically carries more injury risk. He also will be sharing this backfield with Rachaad White and occasionally Sean Tucker. This pick at #17, RB9, 6 spots ahead of where he finished last season, carries risk. I’m not into being that risky in my first 2 rounds, as I would argue those are the spots where you should be seeking to eliminate as much risk as possible.
That being said, I don’t anticipate too much changing with this Buccaneer offense. I would expect Irving to play the majority of snaps in most games and to receive the majority of opportunities out of the backfield. I’m projecting Irving to finish similarly to how he finished in 2024, so long as he doesn’t get hurt, which would still put this 2nd round selection at pick #17 a little too high for me. I’d be more comfortable toward the end of the 3rd after players named Johnathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams have been taken, not before. My personal draft strategy includes taking stud WRs in rounds 1 and 2 anyway, so I will admit that that bias is probably playing into my analysis and thought process.
Should you take Irving at his current ADP, it probably won’t kill you, but there are better selections to make at this stage of your drafts. Also, I would rather put my league mates into situations where they overpay or take on more risk than myself in the first few rounds.
