Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Preview
Like 50 Cent once said, “Been hit with a few shells, but I don’t walk with a limp.” Forget not walking with a limp, despite getting hit with a few shells himself, Brian Robinson is a starting RB for an NFL team. Brian Robinson was able to play in 12 of Washington’s 17 games last season even though he was shot twice during a carjacking prior to the start of the 2022 season. In those games, Robinson carried the ball 205 times for 797 yards and 2 TDs. He added 9 grabs on 12 targets for 60 yards and a score.
This all tell us a few things. First, I would say Brian Robinson demands respect for how quickly he returned from an experience I don’t want to imagine having to deal with, and he produced. Second, we learned that Brian Robinson will likely have next to zero usage in the passing game as long as Antonio Gibson is around. While that may change with Eric Bieniemy taking over as the OC, a look at Robinson’s usage at Alabama shows that, outside his senior year, he was not much of a receiver in college either.
- Most rushing TDs in regular season +2,500
- Most rushing yards in regular season +6,000
- To have 1,000+ rushing yards +300
- Offensive Player of the Year +20,000
I’m very much interested in going higher than 800.5 rushing yards and may even consider him eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark. However, every site is a little different with odds, I found these at MyWettbonus.at. If we look at last year, Robinson reached 797 yards in only 12 games. If we use his 2022 stats as a baseline and adjust them for 17 games, Robinson would end up with 289 carries and 1,122 yards. That is comfortably over both the Underdog prop and bet365’s +300 offering on 1,000+ rush yards. Considering that this is likely going to be a run-heavy offense in Washington, there’s reason to be optimistic about Brian Robinson’s chances.
Preseason Week 2 Running Back Target Share Leaders in Quarters 1 & 2 with routes included. Pinned the players with at least 10 routes in the top-12 in target share.
It was exciting to see Antonio Gibson with the receiving TD, but Brian Robinson nearly matched him in routes. pic.twitter.com/Quj8Dyblnb
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) August 22, 2023
- ADP – 88
- RB ADP – 31
Brian Robinson is largely going in the 8th round of standard drafts. There are worse spots to grab a starting RB and a potential 3rd RB for your teams. Yes, Robinson will be sharing the backfield with Antonio Gibson, but the lion’s share of the rushing work will fall to Brian Robinson. If you’re in a PPR league, then his value takes a hit, but standard leagues make Robinson look decent at this ADP. If you’re doing a zero RB strategy, I could see the argument for nabbing both Robinson and Gibson in rounds 8 and 9.
You see this and think “Jahan Dotson to the moon”
I see this and think, “Brian Robinson won’t be in on many pass plays with protection like that”
Another Antonio Gibson win ✅pic.twitter.com/pKN1wyPvfJ
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 22, 2023
If we are comfortable with the implied baseline over 17 games, Brian Robinson will net you 6.6 fantasy points per game before we factor in any TDs or light receiving work. That will likely put us significantly behind other teams who have better RB1s and RB2s. However, depending on the construction of your team, Robinson could make for a low end RB2 in an emergency situation or as a backup or FLEX option that could be matchup dependent. I’m not all that jazzed about the Commander offense this season, but running the ball will be the primary focus.
Brian Robinson is going right around where he should be. Yes, he’s a starting RB, but he’s a starting RB who is going to share the backfield in a subpar offense with a questionable offensive line. While his floor is both predictable and solid, his ceiling is likely limited unless some unforeseen circumstance, like an Antonio Gibson injury, arises. RB depth is not a terrible thing to have in fantasy football so drafting Brian Robinson in the 8th round is something I can’t argue with if that’s the direction you want to go.
Standard caveat from me here: I’m investing in other positions for dynasty. Additionally, I’d be surprised if Robinson is available in your leagues. If he is, I can see the argument for snatching him up. However, I don’t know if these coaches are going to be around for long in Washington. Whatever group eventually takes over will not be the group that drafted Brian Robinson. What that could mean is that Robinson may not be long for the Commanders. That makes his subsequent seasons a little more of a gamble as his fantasy value will likely be tied to whatever situation he finds himself in.
Over 1,000 yards rushing for Brian Robinson in 2023.
*This is my personal opinion, which may or may not reflect site projections.*
Matt, aka Boris, had a friend in his high school freshman English class once mistakenly call him that, and the nickname has somehow stuck ever since. He has been playing fantasy football since the early 2000s and Daily Fantasy Sports since 2015. Boris has been writing about DFS since 2020 and is excited to be a part of GridIron Experts. He has a wife (proving someone can stand him) and a daughter. Boris loves the beach, skiing, hockey, soccer, and football. He attempts to teach high school English, and aspires to make a ton of money in DFS. Follow him on Twitter @Borisnow00.