Brandon Marshall Fantasy 2016
What do these four things have in common: Atkins, Weight Watchers, South Beach, and Todd Bowles? Here’s a hint: they aren’t all NFL head coaches.
The name “Todd Bowles Diet” was dubbed by New York Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall after his head coach told him to be under 230 pounds for the duration of the 2016 season.
“He said, ‘Brandon, you were so fast in Miami, that’s what I want you at,'” Marshall said in a video posted on Twitter. Marshall and Bowles were previously together during the 2010 and ’11 seasons with the Dolphins.
So what exactly does the hashtag #ToddBowlesDiet consist of?
- Lunch: Grouper fish, avocado and blueberries
- Dinner: Broccoli and shrimp with a “Cam Newton Dab” of sea salt
- Desert (Only occasionally): Peaches and blueberries
@BMarshall on Twitter
Tweets from Marshall about his diet
— BEAST (@BMarshall) June 20, 2016
Fantasy Impact[the_ad id=”63198″]To recap, we have a healthy and lean Jets wide receiver who finished 3rd in standard scoring leagues last year with 109 catches, 1,502 yards, and league leading and career best 14 TD’s who is slimmer and faster. So why is Brandon Marshall the 11th WR in fantasy consensus rankings?
The Answer: He is “old”
Anyone who watched Marshall last year knows that he showed no signs of slowing down. Marshall actually was stronger as the season went on. Finishing with at least 115 yards and 1 TD in five of his last six games. In Jody Smith’s latest double-header Red Zone Target article, Decker and Marshall were pretty much the only two looks around the red zone for the Jets. They earned the respect for being the lethal targets the are and when needed, they delivered.
Remember this equation when drafting. Consistency + Value = Championship
Brandon Marshall is the poster child for receiver consistency. Since 2007 Marshall has had five 100 reception seasons, 8 out of 9 years of 1,000 yards (The only reason not 9 of 9 was an injury plagued 2014), and four seasons of 10-plus touchdowns.
Marshall in his ten year career has NEVER played under 13 games in a season. Marshall has played in all 16 games of a season five times, the years 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015.
If you extrapolate his numbers from those five seasons Marshall Averages; 102 receptions, 1,369 yards, and 10 TD’s. Which would have put him at receiver seven last year in standard scoring leagues.
Fantasy Football is a competition each week, every owner wants a player they can count on to deliver no matter what the matchup is. ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft dives in his article regarding consistency ratings. By using fantasy points, the charts in the column rate players based up how consistently reliable they were during the 2015 season.
To familiarize you with some of the terminology and column headers listed in the chart below:
- ST%: The player’s “Start Percentage,” which shows how often he earned your start in an ESPN standard league.
- CR: The player’s “Consistency Rating.” This is meant to identify the players who were most consistently close to their weekly averages. The lower the number, the more consistent the player. Again, lower numbers are better.
- PPR%: The player’s Start Percentage using PPR scoring.
- FPA: The player’s average fantasy points scored per game.
- ST: The number of times that the player’s point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
- Stud: The number of times the player’s point total ranked among the top at his position.
- Stiff: The number of times the player’s point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
- Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged “Stiff” points for sitting out, nor does it impact their overall Consistency Rating (CR), but it hurts their overall Start Percentage (Start%).
|Consistency Ratings Benchmarks|
|WR Consistency Ratings 1-10|
As you can see Marshall was the most consistent receiver in both PPR and standard leagues. Not only was he consistently great, he was never bad. When Brandon Marshall was in your lineup it was always headache free.
Value[the_ad id=”58837″]In life and in fantasy football we all love the feeling of getting something at a value. Whether we are looking for a car or have the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, we want the best value. If the price is too high on a player, it doesn’t mean we don’t like the player but rather it’s a little out of our price range. But when we can find a player that is not only priced great, and someone we like then that’s a match made in fantasy football heaven.
Right now in standard 12-team drafts, Marshall’s current Average Draft Position (ADP) according to fantasy football calculator is the first pick of round 3. Round 3?! That’s the 13th receiver off the board which is insanely good value. Marshall is at a “Black Friday” like discount for all 2016 drafts.
The past three seasons when Marshall has played all 16 games, here is where he finished among receivers in standard scoring leagues.
- 2015: 3rd
- 2013: 6th
- 2012: 2nd
Have you ever heard of Blind Player Analysis?
Blind Player Analysis is an effective tool when comparing players because it focuses on stats and results rather than name value or team favoritism.
Now look at the graph below and ask yourself which player would you rather have?
|Blind Player Analysis||Player A||Player B||Player C|
|Finished in 2015||3rd||41st||26th|
|Avg. Points Scored in 2015||14.6||11.6||9.9|
|Full season avg. total||198||186||158|
|Career Best Point total||234||195||177|
|Avg. Games played in season||15||13||15|
|ADP in 2016||25th overall||19th overall||20th overall|
After looking at the chart which player would you rather draft? Player A right? Was it even a debate in your mind?
Can you guess who the players are?
- Player A: Brandon Marshall
- Player B: Alshon Jeffery
- Player C: Mike Evans
Now after knowing the players’ names, does your mind change on who you want to draft?
It is believed that when a person loses a sense such as sight their other senses strengthen. Which is why using Blind player analysis is so effective because it helps us on draft day use our most important sense, common sense. It takes common sense to see the value that a player like Brandon Marshall has on draft day which is why he should be targeted in all drafts.
Remember this equation?
Consistency + Value =
Brandon Marshall is not only the most consistent receiver in football but he also the best value in 2016. Having the ability to produce elite numbers every year and coming at a great value will propel teams to fantasy football championships. Marshall is not only an elite talent, but an elite competitor and he understands he isn’t getting any younger which is why he has committed himself to the “Todd Bowles Diet” trying to gain an edge on the competition. Now a slimmer and faster Marshall will help you gain a competitive edge on your competition on draft day and prove that age is simply just a number because he will be a lean, mean, fantasy machine in 2016.
Mitchell is working full-time as Senior Writer & On-Air Talent at Chat Sports in Dallas, TX. Mitchell is a Head Writer at Gridiron Experts and Co-Host of the Empire Fantasy Podcast. He also is a featured fantasy writer for the Fantasy Footballers and FantasyPros. Mitchell has a Ph.D. in Fantasy Football so give him a follow on Twitter @MitchellRenz365.