How The New England Patriots Will Make Brandin Cooks a WR1 Stud

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Brandin Cooks Fantasy 2017

In the NFL, trades involving premier talents are quite rare. But when star wide receiver Brandin Cooks made ripples about being unhappy with his role for the New Orleans Saints during the 2016 NFL season, speculation began that the Saints might be willing to part with their 23-year-old wideout.

After landing superstar-in-the-making Michael Thomas in the second-round of the 2016 NFL draft to go with Willie Snead and newly-signed Ted Ginn, Jr., Saints executive vice president and General Manager Mickey Loomis and head coach Sean Payton felt confident that the offense would be fine without Cooks.

Immediately, the New England Patriots were included in a handful of teams that would be interested in acquiring the services of Cooks, and after being unable or unwilling to part with cornerback Malcolm Butler in the deal, Bill Belichick eventually sent New England’s 2017 No. 1 (32nd overall) and a compensatory third-round pick (No. 107) to New Orleans for Cooks and the Saints’ 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 118.)

While the deal has been rumored, it was still quite shocking to see a young star wideout dealt so quickly, and equally surprising to see Bill Belichick part with two premium draft picks. New England’s normal modus operandi is to constantly be acquiring more draft capital.  

Now that the deal is complete, the real question, especially in fantasy football, is how will Cooks fit in with a potent New England Patriots offense that is already loaded with talented pass catchers?

The answer to that question, is quite simply, not only will Brandin Cooks fit in just fine with the Patriots, his route-running and speed will bring a unique wrinkle to that offense, and the way Patriots plan to implement Cooks into their gameplan is going to make Cooks a fantasy superstar in 2017.

Attributes

Coming out of Oregon State, Cooks ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the 2014 NFL combine, which led all wide receivers. And that speed has certainly translated well to the pro game, as Cooks has already scored eight touchdowns from 40+ yards in his first three seasons.

Cooks has also proven to be sure-handed, producing a catch rate of 65.1% in 2015 and 66.7% in 2016. Both of these figures rank Cooks in the top-30 among NFL wide receivers in each season.

Although he’s listed at only five-foot-10, 189-pounds, Cooks excels at high-pointing the ball and winning at the catch point. But where Cooks really stands out is after the ball is snapped, where his agility, route-running, and run-after-the-catch skills put him way ahead of any X-receivers that the Patriots have tried to fit into their system since Randy Moss left town.

The Patriot Way

Whether it’s lining up Rob Gronkowski outside to seek one-on-one coverage with a smaller safety or linebacker, getting his running backs paired against slower defensive ends, or using his receivers to “pick” opposing defensive backs, Bill Belichick knows how to gameplan for creating mismatches.

Tom Brady‘s ability to see the field and make the correct read is also unparalleled. Brandin Cooks not only offers an all-around skill set that the Patriots haven’t had, but he has quickly learned to embrace the “Patriots way.”

Following June minicamps, Belichick complimented Cooks and his ability to rapidly pick up the offense and fit in well with his new teammates. Not long after making the trade, the club also picked up Cooks’ fifth-year option, showing they’re committed to making the fourth-year receiver a big part of their offense.

In June minicamp, Cooks and Tom Brady were often seen working together long after practice had been completed. According to NESN, the duo had built up some strong chemistry, with Cooks catching some 11 passes from Brady, including a 50-yard touchdown bomb.

While it’s imperative that a new player expected to be a key contributor get as much preparation and extra work in as possible, the biggest question facing the Patriots receiving corps is will there be enough balls to go around for Brandin Cooks, James White, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski to all maintain their lofty fantasy expectations?

Anticipating Target Share

Blount is now in Philadelphia and the Patriots will likely run more of a committee with James White as the main receiving back and change-of-pace runner, and newcomers Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead commanding most of the first and second-down work.

Entering 2017, it’s safe to assume that Tom Brady’s pass attempts will rebound and the Patriots should approach the 611 attempts they averaged for the past six seasons. But with so many options in the passing game, it’s safe to question how Brandin Cooks will see enough targets to produce a top-10 fantasy wide receiver season.

Tom Brady spreads the ball around, but the team’s target share leaders usually fall within normal team leader figures around the league. As expected, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski normally lead the Patriots in targets, but when you look back at 2014, three Patriot pass catchers had big enough target shares to enter our WR1 discussion.

Year	Player	Game	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD
2014	Julian Edelman	14	134	22.0%	92	972	4
2014	Rob Gronkowski	15	131	21.5%	82	1124	12
2014	Brandon LaFell	16	119	19.5%	74	953	7
2015	Rob Gronkowski	15	120	19.0%	72	1176	11
2016	Julian Edelman	16	159	28.9%	98	1106	3

Considering that Brandin Cooks is far and away the biggest deep threat the Patriots have had in years and that Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski both are frequently listed as questionable or miss games, it’s more conceivable that the 2017 New England passing attack could sustain enough targets for Cooks to maintain weekly WR1 value, but it will likely come at the expense of Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, and other minor contributors.

How the Patriots will use Cooks

Bill Belichick is a master at taking advantage of what his players do best and adjusting his offensive philosophy to suit those talents. To assume Belichick surrendered a first and third round pick to acquire an athlete like Cooks and that Cooks will only be used as a third option in New England’s passing game goes against everything that Belichick has stood for.

Another big part of the genius of New England’s passing attack is their ability to take advantage of mismatches by frequently moving all of their pass catchers all over the field. When Tom Brady reads that he’s facing man coverage, he might audible to a different route concept, but with an uncanny ability to decipher coverages, Brady will know right away what one-on-one pairing favors the Patriots.

Having a force like Rob Gronkowski capable of lining up outside and running with cornerbacks, paired with nimble, precise route runners like Julian Edelman and Brandin Cooks will be a huge problem for opposing defenses. It almost assures that the Patriots are going to see at least one very favorable mismatch every time they line up in a spread formation.

Fantasy Forecast

Year	Game	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Ctch %	PPR	PPG	Rank
2014	10	69	53	550	10.4	3	76.80%	139.3	13.9	WR56
2015	16	129	84	1138	13.5	9	65.10%	253.8	15.9	WR14
2016	16	117	78	1173	15	8	66.70%	246.3	15.4	WR11

At a 20% target share, Brandon Cooks would garner 122 targets for New England in 2017. With a career catch rate of 68.3% and 13.3 yards-per-catch, those raw numbers would but Cooks in line to catch 83 passes for 1,108 yards.

Even a modest season of 83-1,108-8 would translate to 241.8 fantasy points in a PPR league. That figure would have been good enough to be the WR12 in 2016.

But after looking at all the things that Cooks brings potentially adds to New England’s already potent offense, and breaking down how the Patriots might use Cooks, those WR12 numbers could be just his floor- and that makes Brandin Cooks an intriguing, must-have fantasy wideout in 2017.