Fantasy Football

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Outlook 2023

Bijan Robinson

Falcons Make a Surprising Selection

The Atlanta Falcons shocked the world when they selected Robinson with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Robinson is considered the best prospect at the running back position since Saquon Barkley coming out of Penn State in 2018.

A Generational Talent

Robinson possesses the attributes of an elite NFL running back. His size, speed, agility, change of direction, contact balance, and ability to break tackles are appealing to any NFL team. What separates him from the rest of the running back class is his patience behind the line of scrimmage, his ability to run inside and outside, and his explosiveness in the open field. His added attraction is his exceptional hands and route running, resulting in high efficiency in the passing game.

College Career

Robinson played college football at the University of Texas from 2020-2022. During his three-year career, he played in 31 games, rushing for 3,410 yards on 539 attempts, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, and scoring 33 rushing touchdowns. He was also efficient in the passing game recording 60 receptions for 805 receiving yards, averaging 13.4 yards per reception, and scoring 8 receiving touchdowns. In 2022, Robinson earned the Doak Walker Award, was voted a Unanimous All-American, and was named part of the 1st team All-Big 12.

NFL Combine

Height: 5’11” Weight: 215 lbs Arm: 31 1/8” Hand: 9 ¾”
40-Yard Dash: 4.46 Seconds 10-Yard Split: 1.52 Seconds Vertical Jump: 37” Broad Jump: 10’ 4”

His outstanding performance at the NFL Combine earned him a score of 96, securing him the number 1 2023 NFL Combine running back.

Lead Back in a Run-Heavy Offense

The Falcons drafted Robinson as their new starting running back. The Falcons’ offensive playbook is a run-heavy scheme that will benefit Robinson’s performance immensely. In 2022, the offense ran 55.29% of rushing plays compared to their passing plays which were called 44.71% of the time. Robinson should see about fifteen carries per game to begin the season. Backup running back Tyler Allgeier will fill in for Robinson in short-yardage situations such as 3rd and 1. Cordarrelle Patterson, who played running back last season has been delegated back to pass-catching as a wide receiver and will continue to handle kick return duties. There have also been rumors that Patterson is a trade candidate that may be dealt with before the 2023 NFL season begins.

In 2022, the Falcons were inefficient in the redzone, only scoring eleven touchdowns throughout the season. With the addition of Robinson, the chances of the offense’s ability to score in the redzone will increase. Robinson will be featured both as a runner and pass-catcher. Also, expect him to receive the goal-line carries as well.

Top Offensive Line

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line consists of LT Jake Matthews, LG Matthew Bergeron (rookie), C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary. Before the 2022 NFL season, the Falcons offensive line was rated the 28th best in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. By the end of the season, they were ranked in the top five. Going into the 2023 NFL season, they are ranked number four by Pro Football Network. My motto for running backs and quarterbacks is that you’re only good as your offensive line.

Fantasy Value

Robinson is ranked the RB3 behind Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in redraft leagues with an ADP of 9. This is high for a rookie running back that has not played one down of NFL football. In my opinion, Robinson being considered the RB3 speaks volumes. He should have a successful year running behind a top offensive line and as a pass-catcher as he will be a top option for quarterback Desmond Ridder.

Dynasty Value

Robinson is the RB1 and the number one overall pick in rookie drafts. In dynasty drafts he is considered the RB1 and a top three pick behind Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson and Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

Prediction

Robinson is in a great situation to rush for over 1,000 yards and score at least ten rushing touchdowns. I also expect him to be a prominent part of the receiving game as he could record at least if not more than 500 yards receiving and score at least five touchdowns. If everything falls into place Robinson should finish as a top five running back in fantasy in 2023.

 

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