Statistics can be overkill, they can manipulate the truth and sometimes be a poor estimate of what really happened. Gridiron Experts is not going to try to convince you that these statistics are the end all be all. We are simple going to provide you with some interesting findings this summer that we hope you use during your search for fantasy football sleepers.
In this article, we see a breakdown of last year’s workhorse fantasy running backs split from the first 8 games to the last 8 games.
The main argument to the statistical relevancy of the numbers below is strength of schedule, yet truthfully that isn’t a great analysis of why or how fantasy players perform well. “Any Given Sunday” and the best running backs in the game can be shut down while the worst light up the score board -we’ve all seen it. Yet, the main reason these Fantasy statistics are so interesting and arguably useful, is the time in which they are based upon. No player that was injured for a significant portion of time is featured in the chart below, yet with enough of an average it does paint a picture of hot and cold players from the first 8 games to the last 8 games.
|Maurice Jones-Drew||Games 1-8||8||166||740||93||4.5||3||12||85||10.6||7.1||0||6|
|Arian Foster||Games 1-8||6||135||532||89||3.9||4||22||317||52.8||14||1||0|
|LeSean McCoy||Games 1-8||8||151||825||103||5.5||9||28||184||23||6.6||2||0|
|Ray Rice||Games 1-8||8||133||532||67||4||6||38||416||52||11||2||1|
|Chris Johnson||Games 1-8||8||121||366||46||3||1||31||206||25.8||6.6||0||1|
|Ryan Mathews||Games 1-8||7||111||509||73||4.6||3||30||342||48.9||11||0||2|
|Marshawn Lynch||Games 1-8||7||97||398||57||4.1||4||12||91||13||7.6||0||2|
|Steven Jackson||Games 1-8||7||113||579||83||5.1||4||17||95||13.6||5.6||1||1|
|Michael Turner||Games 1-8||8||157||692||87||4.4||7||8||105||13.1||13||0||1|
|Darren Sproles||Games 1-8||8||45||305||38||6.8||2||51||389||48.6||7.6||2||0|
|Ahmad Bradshaw||Games 1-8||7||111||440||63||4||5||24||210||30||8.8||1||1|
|Frank Gore||Games 1-8||8||159||782||98||4.9||5||13||78||9.8||6||0||2|
|BenJarvus Green-Ellis||Games 1-8||8||108||452||57||4.2||5||5||49||6.1||9.8||0||0|
|Reggie Bush||Games 1-8||8||88||427||53||4.9||1||24||164||20.5||6.8||1||3|
|Shonn Greene||Games 1-8||8||132||502||63||3.8||2||14||77||9.6||5.5||0||1|
|Willis McGahee||Games 1-8||7||123||623||89||5.1||3||11||49||7||4.5||1||2|
|DeAngelo Williams||Games 1-8||8||75||363||45||4.8||1||10||61||7.6||6.1||0||0|
|Michael Bush||Games 1-8||8||79||333||42||4.2||3||11||144||18||13||1||0|
|Jonathan Stewart||Games 1-8||8||71||327||41||4.6||2||23||220||27.5||9.6||0||1|
|LeGarrette Blount||Games 1-8||6||90||400||67||4.4||3||6||66||11||11||0||1|
|Donald Brown||Games 1-8||8||32||153||19||4.8||2||3||17||2.1||5.7||0||0|
Thoughts on some of the results
- Steven Jackson’s second half drop is somewhat alarming. The team was awful all year so it’s not like their was ever a low point in which things fell apart. Age is becoming a factor, something that is important when talking about weeks 14-17 -fantasy playoff time.
- Chris Johnson seemed to pick up steam near the end of the year. Promising news for fantasy owners
- Frank Gore’s slip in stats had to do with the fact that the team had clinched the playoffs and were starting to ease him off carries. Smart coaching move but who’s to say that doesn’t happen again this year? With the army of RB’s on the roster now the 49ers could put Gore on ice if the NFC West is a walk in the park again.
- I have to commend Reggie Bush, he really did turn into an all-purpose RB last year. His second half performance made him one of the must-have players at fantasy trade deadlines.
- Could Jonathan Stewart split his stats more evenly? Same amount of carries and Touchdowns, but a big boost in YPC average second half.
- Michael Bush may be better suited in a rotation role, his numbers never really took off when given the starter role after Darren McFadden got hurt
Mike is the founding member at Gridiron Experts with over 1000+ articles credited to his name. With over 25 years of fantasy experience, Mike has a very unique style when picking sleepers and gems. He has always had an outside the box look on the NFL and rarely gets sucked into the hype over players or buzzing offenses. Mike has three kids and lives on the West Coast. He’s happily married to a beautiful woman who also loves sports. Sundays are spent with friends and family watching games from opening kickoff to well into the evenings.