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Arian Foster Fantasy Value

Arian Foster Fantasy 2014

On Thursday, Arian Foster confirmed he will be ready for OTA’s and that his back was “fine”. Foster had been medically cleared in March after microscopic lumbar discectomy surgery on his back that ended his 2013 season. The Houston Texans running back also said his back “wasn’t as major as it sounded”

Arian Foster FantasyOn Thursday, Arian Foster confirmed he will be ready for OTA’s and that his back was “fine.” Foster had been medically cleared in March after microscopic lumbar discectomy surgery on his back that ended his 2013 season. The Houston Texans running back also said his back “wasn’t as major as it sounded” and went on to say “That’s why I rebounded so quickly. I worked my ass off. I’m expecting to do bigger things and bounce back.”

Fantasy owners usually steer clear of players with a history of injuries or are off a recent injury that caused a player to miss significant time. Last year, our very own Jody Smith wrote an article predicting Arian Foster’s fantasy meltdown for 2013. The article was mainly about the track record of leading running backs who take on a monster workload, those who took our advice targeted names like LeSean McCoy instead, a RB we were really pushing last summer.

It will be interesting to see how the fantasy football masses react to the health of Arian Foster. Currently Foster’s ADP is 2.03, making him the seventh running back off the board in a gamble/potential value status for fantasy drafts at this current moment.

Obviously, if Foster was to regain his form he would be a serious value pick at 2.03. The Texans were the worst team in football last year but did succeed in 2011 and 2012 getting deep into the NFL playoffs and still have many key pieces to a strong team. The Texans are potential candidates for a quick rebound in a similar fashion to how the Kansas City Chiefs bounced back last season. That is to say the find an answer to their Quarerback dilemma.

It all starts with the NFL draft and the Texans control board. The fanbase is torn with what the team should do with the first overall pick, yet arguably a player like Johnny Manziel could succeed quickly with the luxury of a strong running game to lean on. The Texans have an above average offensive line, solid receiving corps and a eager new coaching staff looking to prove themselves in the pros.

Arian Foster Stats

YearTeamGRushYdsY/GAvgTDFumFumL
2009HOU65425742.84.8311
2010HOU1632716161014.91632
2011HOU13278122494.24.41053
2012HOU163511424894.11532
2013HOU812154267.84.5100

The loss of RB Ben Tate could also boost Foster’s fantasy value entering the 2014 season. Tate’s replacement was filled by New York Giants running back Andre Brown. Brown is a capable running back that should be able to help contribute, yet is a noticeable drop-off to former Texans 2011 second round pick Ben Tate. Much like most veterans fantasy players right now, a lot will change with the upcoming NFL draft in May. If the Texans decide to add more depth to their backfield, Foster may find himself in a heavy rotation which will continue to drop his fantasy value. Although, if the Houston Texans decide to use their draft picks on rebuilding other areas of need and feel good about their overall depth at the RB position, Foster could be inline for a strong season in which he will regain a heavy workload.

It’s an interesting waiting game that I’m watching for fantasy value.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Bobby

    April 21, 2014 at Monday, April,21

    I like Foster a bit more without Tate on the roster, but I’m always tempted to lump him into the Ray Rice-type crowd. Just not sure how much he’s got left.

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