Overthinking Davante Adams’ Regression or Value in 2026
Davante Adams turned in a strong first season with the Los Angeles Rams in 2025, finishing with 60 receptions for 789 yards and 14 touchdowns on 114 targets across 14 games. That production was enough to make him a top-tier fantasy option for the season overall, even with three missed games due to a hamstring injury.
Heading into 2026, there is no shortage of reasons to expect a step back. Adams enters his age-34 season, a point in a receiver’s career when decline becomes a real question rather than a hypothetical one. His touchdown total was also unusually high relative to his overall target share, and touchdown production is one of the least reliable numbers to project forward from one season to the next.
Still, the volume side of Adams’ profile held up well in 2025. He averaged more than eight targets per game, a workload that kept him firmly involved in the Rams’ passing game even as Puka Nacua operated as the clear top option. That target floor matters more than touchdown totals when projecting a receiver’s outlook, since volume tends to be far stickier year over year than scoring luck.
There is also room for efficiency to bounce back. Adams posted a career-low catch rate of 52.6% in 2025, a number that stands out compared to his career norms. If that rate normalizes even modestly in 2026, it could help offset any decline in touchdown scoring, since more completions on similar volume would help stabilize his overall output even in a lower-scoring season.
None of this means Adams should be treated as a locked-in WR1. He shouldn’t be drafted with WR9 expectations again, and fantasy managers are right to price in some level of decline given his age and how touchdown-dependent last season was. But regression does not have to mean collapse. A receiver who is still seeing eight-plus targets a game in a competent offense retains real weekly upside, even if the touchdown well runs a little dry.
At his current redraft price in the WR20s, Adams looks like a name where the market has already absorbed most of the obvious regression risk. Fantasy managers who avoid him entirely on principle may be overcorrecting for one loud red flag, touchdown dependency, while underweighting the more durable signal of his continued target share in a high-functioning passing offense.
The safest expectation for 2026 is a lower touchdown total paired with steady, if unspectacular, target volume. That combination still has real value in PPR formats, particularly at a discounted draft price. Adams is not the receiver he was during his peak seasons in Green Bay, but he remains a productive piece of one of the league’s better offenses, and that alone should be enough to keep him in the WR2 conversation rather than push him off draft boards entirely.
If he slips in your draft, don’t overthink his value.
