Analyzing Fantasy Targets Week 6

Fantasy Football Targets Week 6

Fantasy Football TargetsWeek 5 was the first time since Week 2 that we have not seen a receiver hit the 20 mark in targets. We also saw Julio Jones receive his season low in target totals and welcomed a new comer to not only the top five in targets but the top targeted receiver of the week. There will be some new names on the target list these week as well as familiar faces. In total, ten receivers were within the top five target receivers.

As you know by now targets mean a ton to me, but also to your fantasy team. Targets create opportunity. Opportunity combined with efficiency creates fantasy points, which is all we really care about. Target analysis allows us to analyze usage, efficiency, fantasy points per target (FPPT), and touchdowns per target.

Here are your target leaders from Week 5 with a look ahead for what is in store in Week 6.

  1. Julio Jones and Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen SleeperAs previously mentioned, Jones saw his season low in targets with just 10 last week. That may not seem like a small number but for Jones it certainly is. He has been hobbled with a hamstring and toe injury and it shows. Over the past two weeks, Jones has scored a combined 24 fantasy points which is less than any single game performance he had prior. There are rumblings that he will be on a pitch count for the Thursday night game. Not only do I avoid including Thursday night players in this column but you also do not need me to tell you that if Julio Jones plays for his real team he plays for your fantasy team.

Keenan Allen also saw ten targets this week. Many expected the return of Antonio Gates to impact Ladarius Green but it was Allen’s who saw the larger dip in targets. I would not downgrade Allen too much but it is hard to ignore the immediate impact Gates had in his return. As long as the volume stays around the double digit mark, Allen will remain a contributor for the Chargers and for your team. His Week 6 matchup against the Green Bay Packers is promising, as the current Vegas line has the over/under at 50. Gates may be the new leading scorer in San Diego but Allen is not going anywhere, especially with Stevie Johnson still ailing.

  1. Odell Beckham, Jr. and Willie Snead

Odell Beckham Jr.OBJ turned his 11 targets into seven receptions for 121 yards and a score last week. After a poor Week 4 performance fantasy owners needed this one but they definitely did not need the hamstring injury he sustained. He has a history of issues in that department and it is something worth monitoring before the Monday night division match up against the Philadelphia Eagles. I have no doubt Beckham, Jr. will play in this game but his plaguing hamstrings are troublesome. On the season he is the WR8, is within top ten in total targets, and is scoring 1.71 FPPT.

Willie Snead is irrelevant to this article due to the Thursday night matchup but he is no fluke and appears to be Drew Brees go-to target.

  1. Anquan Boldin, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders, & Travis Benjamin

These four receivers each saw 12 targets last week and their statistical production is below.

PLAYERS RECEIVING TOTAL
Wide Receivers REC YDS C% TD   TAR PTS FPPT
Anquan Boldin
8 107 66.67 1 12 24 2.00
Jeremy Maclin
8 85 66.67 0 12 16 1.33
Emmanuel Sanders
9 111 75.00 0 12 20 1.67
Travis Benjamin
6 83 50.00 0 12 14 1.17

Late round gem Anquan Boldin finally came on for fantasy owners and showed what he can do with volume. I wrote in the offseason about Boldin’s usage from 2014 where he saw 131 targets as the 15th most targeted receiver. Colin Kaepernick got off to a slow start this season but if he continues to target Boldin he will be worth the late round flier you took on him. I particularly love him this week in a revenge game against the Baltimore Ravens. If the volume is there he will look to show his old team what they are missing in him.

With the loss of Jamaal Charles we very well may see Maclin’s name in here more frequently over the coming weeks. He is already the 7th most targeted receiver on the season with 52 total and Alex Smith may have no choice but to rely on him even more. His 70% completion rate is efficient but his one score is not cutting it. Maclin will need to see the end zone more in order to really be in that top tier of receivers.

The Vikings may look to take him away this week but considering that Andy Reid appears to have no interest in feeding Travis Kelce, Maclin still has a great chance of dominating in targets.

Emmanuel Sanders continues to impress despite the woes of Peyton Manning’s deteriorating arm. He trails Demaryius Thomas in targets but just five with 53 but he currently sits as the top scoring receiver in Denver. Both wide outs will continue to be top plays but Sanders is in line for a huge Week 6.

The Cleveland Browns defense does not look like they could stop a high school team at this point and there should be plenty of scoring to go around, particularly for Sanders.

It is a relief to finally be able to talk about Travis Benjamin. He is now in the top 20 in targets on the season and consistently sees these targets each week. We are not seeing games where he is heavily involved and then goes away. He is the top receiver in Cleveland and is doing a lot with his targets. Not only his 2.26 FPPT but he is scoring a touchdown on 10% of his targets (TDPT). There is only one relevant receiver scoring more TDPT than Benjamin and that is Larry Fitzgerald, who sees the end zone 14% of his targets. Although Benjamin has his toughest matchup to date this week against the Broncos and expectations must be realistic the volume should still be there. He has proven that he generates points whenever the ball is in his hands.

DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy Football

  1. DeAndre Hopkins

Surprise, surprise – Hopkins is back as one of the most targeted receivers from last week. He is on here every week and likely will continue to be. Week 5 could almost be considered a “down” week for him as he saw “just” 14 targets. Hopkins is making a push for the top overall receiver crown and with this type of volume and efficiency he has a legitimate chance to unseat Julio Jones. Take a look at his production compared to Jones’.

PLAYERS RECEIVING TOTAL
PLAYER, TEAM Team   REC   YDS C%    TD   TAR PTS FPPT TDPT%
DeAndre Hopkins
42 578 56.00 3 75 117 1.56 4.00
Julio Jones
43 545 69.35 4 62 125 2.02 6.45

He is nipping at Julio’s heels and has a great chance to be the WR1 after this week’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It really does not matter who the Texans play. Hopkins is matchup proof and his quarterback(s) have tunnel vision for him.

  1. Golden Tate

Golden Tate FantasyThis was a surprise. Tate led all receivers with 18 last week. This is great for Tate owners, isn’t it? Not quite. Matthew Stafford was benched half way through the third quarter last week and a chunk of those targets came from Dan Orlovsky. What is important to keep an eye on is when Calvin Johnson was shadowed while Stafford was still under center, he was targeting Tate. If defenses start to double Johnson more frequently Tate will see his targets go up, but he is still a matchup based flex play at this point. This week should be huge for both Lions receivers as they face a really bad Chicago secondary. If Tate sees similar targets and scores in Week 6 he could finish with better numbers than Calvin Johnson.

That is your recap of Week 5’s target leaders and their outlook for Week 6. I mentioned Larry Fitzgerald earlier and it is important to realize just how efficient of a receiver he is. There are 19 receivers with more targets than him but none of them have a higher completion rate than him (79.55%), more touchdowns (six), a higher FPPT (2.61), or score on more targets than him (13.64%). He is the WR3 in football right now but he is by far the most efficient receiver. He is ten points of Julio Jones. It will be interesting over the coming weeks to see how Jones, Hopkins, and Fitzgerald stack up and who will pull away from the pack. Check back next week to see who sees the most Week 6 targets and what each receiver did with them.

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