Attempting to Define Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Trade Value

Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Trade Value

To say that Alvin Kamara took the league by storm this year could potentially be the understatement of the season. Playing with insanely efficient, albeit probably unsustainable, numbers in one of the most dominant and dynamic RBBCs in recent memory, it’s almost unfathomable to think that Kamara reached this level of historical success after being third in the pecking order until Week 5.

Taking a quick run through of some numbers make it all the more impressive:

  • Kamara had more production per touch (9.0 yards) than any other running back in the last 25 years and the most yards per touch of all players in NFL history with 200+ more touches in a season.
  • His 6.1 yards per rush led the league by more than an entire yard.
  • Le’Veon Bell was the only running back to have more receptions than Kamara this year (85 for Bell, 81 for Kamara), while Kamara led the league for receiving yards and YPC out of the backfield.

Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Trade ValueAs a matter of fact, if you completely take his rushing statistics out of the equation, his 81/826/5 line as a wide receiver would have pegged him at the WR22 on the year in standard PPR leagues, ahead of names like JuJu Smith-Schuster, T.Y. Hilton, and Amari Cooper. So knowing that Kamara put up these astronomical numbers, he’s become one of the more intriguing trade candidates in dynasty formats this offseason – both to acquire and to sell high.

But how do you even begin to try and figure out you could potentially ask in return for Kamara or how to knock on the door of a Kamara owner?

I’ve taken a look at three recent trade polls to see some recent trade propositions out there just so you could get a gauge. Take them with a grain of salt because you don’t know which sides are competing versus which sides are rebuilding or which sides have specific positional needs, but some of these results are pretty surprising.

Also, full disclosure, Kamara happens to be on my team in my most important dynasty league, so I might have a little bias, but for objectivity sake, I’ll try my best to push it aside.

Obviously, this trade is saying Alvin Kamara for Saquon Barkley. When I look at these trade polls results, I usually say +/- 5% on either side is a wash in my books, and this poll comes out to be pretty close to that.

In my personal preference, I’d rather have Kamara over Barkley in this case for a few reasons:

  • We don’t know where Barkley is going to land this year. He could very easily find himself in a situation like Joe Mixon where he was in an RBBC in an anemic offense. Or worse, he could (and probably will) find himself in Cleveland.
  • My personal style in dynasty is to value proven commodities higher than unknowns, although I know the dynasty community is split just about 50/50.
  • At the end of the day, you hope Barkley turns out to be a top 5 running back next year, which is what Kamara already has shown he can be, so why risk it?

It’s tough to turn down the 1.01 in dynasty formats because we’ve all seen how Zeke turned out, but for every Zeke, there’s been a Corey Davis. Give me the known commodity all day long.

This one was probably the most surprising to me, and the one where recency bias probably played the heaviest hand.

If you have the opportunity to trade for a young, stud WR1 in Hill, who will enter the 2018 season at the ripe age of 24, plus a young, stud QB in Watson, I’d have to accept that offer if someone came knocking on my door for Kamara.

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I know Watson’s sample size is so, so small in the grand scheme of things, but the fact of the matter is he can be your starting QB for well over a decade (barring injuries). He’s got a really solid supporting cast around him, including a top-3 WR, and that supporting cast can only get stronger as the team starts drafting around Watson’s strengths. Bonus Watson stat: his 223.85 points in 6.5 games were only less 44.95 points less than what Marcus Mariota put up in 16 games this year.

If I’m a team with a need at QB and WR with decent enough depth at RB, give me Watson and Hill.

This was a runaway in favor of Kamara, and it’s an interesting debate.

Hyde, as the entire fantasy football world knows, is a UFA and probably the cream of the crop for free agent RBs. Does he stay in SF where Jimmy Grapes completely revitalized a franchise in only five games or does he bolt for an RB-needy team ready to compete because there are plenty of those (See: Detroit, Denver, Seattle, Oakland depending on Lynch, Tampa Bay if the rumors of them cutting Doug Martin prove to be true).

He’s proven he can be a top-10 RB, and at age 26, he probably still has a few more years left in the tank.

Plus, the 1.04 this year could probably snag you a guy that you can build around like Courtland Sutton or Nick Chubb (assuming Barkley and Guice go 1.01 and 1.02).

But, on the flip side, Kamara’s youth and the fact that he’s playing in an offense that is tailor-made for hi come into play, as well as how he still finished the year 80.6 more points than Hyde and averaged five more points per game in PPR leagues, makes this trade close, but not close enough.

I’m standing pat with Kamara here.

As always, fantasy trade beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder, and if you’re looking to acquire or trade Kamara, these three trade polls can help you get your feet wet in terms of valuation. If you’re trading for Kamara, what would you feel comfortable dealing? And if you’re looking to trade Kamara, what would you need in return?

The price tag is high, and rightfully so, but as Ted DiBiase emphatically always said, “Everybody has a price.”

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3 thoughts on “Attempting to Define Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Trade Value”

  1. Hey, Eric.

    Long-time listener, first-time caller.

    How does factoring in Drew Brees’ expiring contract and possible (though not likely) retirement or relocation affect Kamara’s value? Basically, is having a Hall of Fame QB helming the Saints offense critical to Kamara’s success?

    I’ll hang up and listen.


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