Alex Smith’s Fantasy Value
Alex Smith stepped in out of nowhere and almost rescued the San Francisco 49ers drowning offense last week, coming just short of a heroic comeback, falling to the Houston Texans 24-21. Smith excelled where Shaun Hill could not, as he came in after half-time and threw three touchdowns (all to Vernon Davis), and over 200 yards in a fury of offensive production. And while that’s just peachy, what the rest of the fantasy world is wondering is, was it a fluke, or can this kid finally play some ball?
Quite honestly, it’s going to be hard to say with a very tough match-up against the undefeated Indianapolis Colts in week eight. If Smith bombs, throws three picks, and the 49ers drop their third straight, does that mean he’s a fantasy dud? Not at all. Smith displayed great confidence, poise, and most of all, sound decision-making.
He showed he still has great chemistry with tight end Vernon Davis, and after a full week (now two weeks) or practicing with rookie receiver Michael Crabtree, his overall comfort level with his weapons and the offense is at an all-time high, and leaps and bounds better than what Hill had to offer. Does Smith starting mean the 49ers are going to score 21+ points every game and dominate through the air on their way to their first playoff appearance in six years? Too early to tell.
However, what we do know is that the Colts will be focused on keeping the ball out of Frank Gore’s hands, and trying to test the newly crowned Smith, and see if they can get any mistakes out of him.
The mistakes and an eventual loss are likely to come, but the fantasy numbers could be there as the confident Smith tries to win the San Francisco fan base back, and prove that he deserves this final shot at the starting job. While we like his potential for this week, we still suggest you waiting until you see a better match-up before you give him a go.
Fantasy Prediction: 23-36, 311 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT