NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all and welcome to installment #4 of the team by team coaching and O-line series. Today we have the AFC West!
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 5.5
- HC: Sean Payton
- OC: Joe Lombardi
- DC: Vance Joseph
When Drew Brees is your QB, the Sean Payton offense looks nigh unstoppable. When it’s a lesser QB, you might wonder why this man has a job. Payton’s offense is a timing one in which receivers and the QB need to be on the same page. As opposed to targeting a player at a certain point in a route, it’s more about throwing to a specific spot on the field, and it’s the receivers job to make sure he is there. Wilson did a decent job with this last season, and now Bo Nix will have to learn it. I’m sure they’ll be growing pains turnovers.
I made a pretty big mistake last year in assuming that Javonte Williams would get the majority of the touches in this backfield just like Austin Ekeler did when Lomabrdi was with the Chargers. At the very least I thought he would be part of two headed monster kind of like Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were with Payton in New Orleans. I did not expect this to be a 3 person committee. The way Lombardi and Payton have used the RB position in the past has been a gold mine for fantasy production. Too bad we can’t just roster “Denver RB.” As a team, the Broncos put up the 5th most fantasy points at the RB position in 2023, it was just divided amongst Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin. Oh, and this team also drafted 4 star recruit Audric Estime out of Notre Dame who flourished in his final college season when he was used as a bell cow back.
Joseph employs a wide 9, 3-4 base on defense that likes to blitz, including with members of the secondary. The secondary is man-to-man on the outside but zone in the middle. The Broncos were top 5 in points allowed last season and on paper it doesn’t look like they have done much to change anything. I’d anticipate them to continue to struggle. I may not be writing about Vance Joseph in this space next year.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Garett Bolles
- LG: Ben Powers
- C: Luke Wattenberg
- RG: Quinn Meinerz
- RT: Mike McGlinchey
Bolles is one of the strengths of this line and had an excellent 2023 as he made a great recovery from the broken leg he suffered in 2022 . He’s ranked 19th overall by Pro Football Focus.
Powers, according to PFF, had a bit of a down year as he has dropped significantly in their rankings, but he’s perfectly capable of being an effective linemen though a better year this season is the goal.
The Broncos lost center Lloyd Cushenberry to Tennessee and have replaced him with Wattenberg. He was drafted by these Broncos in the 5th round of 2022. Wattenberg is largely untested and has mostly played LG as opposed to center.
At this point Meinerz is the best lineman here, earning a rank of 3rd overall by PFF. His run blocking in particular is excellent.
McGlinchey was inconsistent in 2023 but is certainly capable of playing at high level.
Overall, this is a solid unit.
Verdict
Courtland Sutton doesn’t go off the board until pick 117, WR 49! This dude had 10 TDs last year and 131 standard fantasy points (191 in PPR) playing the X receiver in a Sean Payton offense. The X has a history of fantasy production in this offense. I get that the QB spot is a question mark, but someone is going to catch the ball in Denver, and that’s not going to be Jerry Jeudy cuz he gone.
Javonte Williams is going around pick 96, RB 33. McLaughlin is at pick 157, Estime is pick 198, and Perine is 242. Do what you will here, but know that all 4 of these guys are likely to see action. For those in keeper and dynasty leagues, Estime is probably the back I would go with for the future.
Orgeon phenom Troy Franklin is pick 164, WR 69. If he can pick up this timing offense, look out.
Marvin Mims is pick 207 and veteran Josh Reynolds basically isn’t being drafted. The frustrating thing about Denver is that the offense has plenty of potential to ignite, but when that happens and with whom are big question marks. I’d put money on it eventually happening with Franklin and Estime, but it probably doesn’t happen in 2024.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 11.5
- HC: Andy Reid
- OC: Matt Nagy
- DC: Steve Spagnuolo
I find it funny that Matt Nagy just got to win a Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes, the guy he passed on to draft Mitch Trubisky instead. #Neverforget.
Reid and Nagy employ a versatile West Coast offense that changes depending on what the opposing team, or league, is doing to combat them. I personally did not anticipate the slow plodding, short yardage passing game that the Chiefs used last year to near perfection. This team has gotten really good at playing chess and thinking moves ahead. Their analytics department is one of the best as their predicted scenarios and results are second to none. Mahomes has mastered both the offense as well as being open to doing things differently from game to game and from year to year.
Having probably the best defense they’ve had since Mahomes took over as the starter was nice as well. Spagnuolo preaches pressuring the QB and is willing to make it happen in any way that he can. In fact he tries to do this in multiple ways so the opposing QB and line have no idea from where it is coming. He does the same with the secondary, using both man and zone coverages. His players were able to execute his designs extremely well, and they only got better as the season went on. One possible problem in 2024 could be the loss of CB L’Jarius Sneed, who is now a member of the Titans.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Wanya Morris / Kingsley Suamataia
- LG: Joe Thuney
- C: Creed Humphrey
- RG: Trey Smith
- RT: Jawaan Taylor / Lucas Niang
The strength of this line is in the interior as the combination of Thuney, Humphrey and Smith are as good as any other center and guard in the NFL.
The tackles were mediocre in 2023. Morris was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2023 draft. His rookie season was okay, but an improvement would be nice here in year 2. The Chiefs drafted Suamataia out of BYU in the second round. He could compete for the LT job.
Jawaan Taylor signed a hefty 4 year contract to come to the Chiefs last year. He didn’t live up to it in year one as he allowed sacks and committed penalties at an alarming rate. He did improve as the year went on, so hopefully he’s more comfortable in this offense in year 2. Niang, who missed most of 2023, is here to relieve Taylor of his duties if need be.
Verdict
I invested heavily and Mahomes and Kelce last year thinking that it was a no brainer. Well, Brock Purdy was my starting QB toward the back half of the fantasy season. While both Mahomes and Kelce arguably didn’t meet their ADP price tag last year, it’s not like they were worthless either. They are still 2 of the more trustworthy players at their positions and are essentially matchup proof. Sam LaPorta is going off at TE 1 at pick 25 while Kelce goes 2 picks later at 27. This could be a mistake. Meanwhile Mahomes is QB 3 and pick 34 behind Allen and Hurts. That’s probably right on track where he should be, though I personally might wait on a QB this year or target one of the 2 ahead of him. Hurts is especially enticing, and I’ll explain why in the next installment that features the NFC West.
Isaiah Pacheco is RB 12 and pick 29. I have no problem taking him there. While the RB1 in Kansas City seems like it changes from year-to-year, the RB1 in Andy Reid offenses puts up fantasy points. Pacheco is the lead dog with only CEH to really threaten him. Edwards-Helaire has already had the opportunity to claim the RB1 spot but has proven to be unable to do so.
Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown have been brought in to be the deep threats, something that the Chief offense was missing last year. Brown is pick 82, WR 36. I got no problem with him in the 7th round, though hopefully he’s my WR3/Flex1 at that point. Worthy goes shortly after at pick 85. In redraft I’m just going to bank on the veteran here, but in dynasty I can see taking a shot at Worthy. His skill sets are impressive, but he could be one dimensional and inconsistent from a fantasy production standpoint in year one.
Will Rashee Rice be suspended or won’t he? The fantasy industry is trepidatious about it as proven by Rice’s ADP of 86. If he’s playing a full season, or even only suspended for a game or 2, Rice has already proven his grasp of this offense and is the one I trust more.
The Chiefs DST was the 12th overall DST in 2023 for fantasy. This year they are being drafted as DST 6 despite having lost their best player.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 6.5
- HC: Antonio Pierce
- OC: Luke Getsy
- DC: Patrick Graham
Imagine taking an offense that didn’t work with Justin Fields and trying to run it with Gardner Minshew. That’s what’s about to happen in the desert. This will be a West Coast/RPO based offense. Minshew actually executed a lot of RPOs in Indianapolis last year, so that’s good. Another good thing is that Getsy has already worked with Davante Adams in Green Bay, so there should be similar schemes and plays in the Raider offense this season. Getsy will also use an outside zone running scheme which is good news for Zamir White who has flourished in zone rushing schemes before.
Graham doesn’t use a single front on defense, he’ll be all over the place in terms of how many guys are on the line, how many end up rushing, and how many drop into coverage. This is the same in the secondary: all types of zone coverages and man as well. Graham likes his defense to be flexible so as to be prepared to face any type of opponent. The Raiders made a splash in the offseason by adding nose tackle Christian Wilkins to a group that already has Maxx Crosby. That’s a scary front for any offensive line. Graham did an exceptional job last year turning this unit around, and now they have added pieces that will make them even better. Graham will probably be a candidate for a head coaching gig soon.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Kolton Miller / Andres Peat
- LG: Jackson Powers-Johnson / Cody Whitehair
- C: Andre James
- RG: Dylan Parnham
- RT: Thayor Munford
Miller and Powers-Johnson are both currently on the PUP list, but they are the intended starters. Miller carries a rank of 13th overall, a very good pass and run blocker. Powers-Johnson was second round pick out of Oregon where he played well. He’s on the PUP list too. Both Peat and Whitehair are veterans and capable NFL players.
James carries a rank of 8 overall at the center position. He’s also a good pass and run blocker.
Parham is probably “the worst” member of this line with a rank of 41. That’s still in the top half of the league.
Munford is a VERY good run blocker but needs some work with his pass blocking.
This is a very good unit.
Verdict
The Raiders are going to be better than you think they are. That 6.5 win total is enticing as they should improve upon the success they had last year after Pierce took over as HC. If the starting QB denoted someone other than Gardner Minshew, then this team would be getting more attention.
Devante Adams has fallen into round 2, WR 9 and pick 15. This is a mistake. If I’m pick #12 at the turn and I walk away with Jonathan Taylor and Devante Adams, then I am super happy.
Zamir White is off the board with pick 70, RB 24. That’s a steal if he ends up being a bell cow back in this offensive scheme with this offensive line.
Brock Bowers is TE 11, pick 95. I’m more excited for Bowers in dynasty and keeper leagues than redraft this year. Cole Kmet did decently in this offensive scheme though, so Brock Bowers could as well. This is the best TE prospect since Kyle Pitts, which goes to show that nothing is 100%.
Jakobi Meyers is pick 130. He’ll be running short routes along with Adams and will be in line for some targets, though not a ton. Khalil Shakir goes the pick before him, and he has an easier path to fantasy production, so I doubt I’ll have any teams with Meyers on the roster.
The Raiders DST is the 16th drafted defense. They will be better than that.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Jim Harbaugh
- OC: Greg Roman
- DC: Jesse Minter
HC Harbaugh is coming in off the heels of a National Championship with Michigan. On offense he did this with a heavy run scheme that he hopes to duplicate with the Chargers. Bringing in Greg Roman to be the OC is also a harbinger of that as Roman has had his hands all over some of the better rushing attacks in football over the last decade plus. Roman’s running attack is diverse, not just zone or wide zone or power or gap, but an amalgamation of all of it. The goal is, on any given play, to have the ball carrier with the luxury of having multiple blockers in front of him. One of the keys is to have a QB who can identify the right blocking scheme and to audible out of a huddle call if need be. We shall see if Herbert is up for this, though it is yet another significant scheme change in his still young NFL career.
Harbaugh has brought Minter along with him from Michigan where they had a very good defense. This will be Minter’s first coordinating job in the NFL though he has both college and NFL experience, actually with Jim’s brother John in Baltimore. Minter uses a base 3-4 defense but will fluctuate the number of rushers from snap to snap. He’ll borrow a page from the Ravens defensive playbook as well by presenting one coverage pre-snap before pivoting to another after the ball is in the QB’s hands.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Rashawn Slater
- LG: Jamaree Salyer / Zion Johnson
- C: Bradley Bozeman
- RG: Trey Pipkins / Zion Johnson
- RT: Joe Alt
Slater is a solid LT who is one of the best pass protectors in the league but has had issues with run blocking. You can bet that will be addressed in this offense.
Slayer or Johnson may end up at LG. Both could use some improvement, but at least the Chargers have options and depth here.
Bozeman has been brought in after Corey Linsley had to retire for medical reasons. Bozeman is a solid center though he’s coming off one of his worst seasons with Carolina. I’m banking on some improvement considering his history and this team’s new offensive scheme.
Pipkins has been the team’s RT for the last few seasons, but with the drafting of 5th overall pick Joe Alt out of Notre Dame, Pipkins or Johnson will be the starter at RG. At 5th overall, the anticipation is that Alt is the real deal and will be key in helping Harbaugh to install the offense that he wants.
Verdict
Roman was in Baltimore a few years ago and was around for the drafting of players like Hayden Hurts, Gus Edwards, and JK Dobbins. It is no mistake or coincidence that they are here. They are all here because they know the offense and Roman is confident in their ability to execute it. Hurst is particularly interesting as when he and Mark Andrews broke into the league, it was Hurst who was considered the pass catching TE, but Andrews won out and Hurst was forgotten. Roman apparently has not. The TE position is important in Roman’s scheme, from a blocking and catching perspective. The Chargers will run many 2 TE sets. Donald Parham and Will Dissly are here to help, but it is Hurst who may now finally fulfill his destiny of a featured pass catching TE, and no one is drafting him.
Dobbins and Edwards are going around picks 117 – 125. Dobbins’ injury history is giving everyone, including me, pause. However, one if not both are going to be instrumental in establishing this offense, that is, until they both give way Kimani Vidal who is someone I would target in dynasty.
Herbert is someone I just can’t be interested in this year. His passing attempts and total yards are about to go way down. The fantasy industry recognizes this as Herbert is no longer being drafted as a starter at pick 113, QB 16. Don’t fall into the Herbert trap this year, go with Tua, Cousins, Lawrence, or even (cringe) Rodgers.
The WR room is interesting here as both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone. There really is no WR here that is going to have a stellar year, so I’m likely out on all of them. I really like Ladd McConkey. He cares about excellence and winning over personal statistics and will do whatever is necessary to win. I’m not sure that’s going to translate to fantasy production, but I will be paying attention.
Quentin Johnson was not drafted by this group of coaches, so I fear for him. Neither was Palmer, but his rapport with Herbert cannot be discounted. DJ Chark was brought in by this coaching staff, however. So the 1 or 2 deep shots that are taken per game could end up going to him.
The Chargers DST is not being drafted. They have two NCAA champion level minds here now, and both Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa are still here. They should at least be going before DST 27.
As always, thanks again for reading. We’re on to the NFC.
