NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all, and welcome to installment #3 of the team-by-team coaching and O-line series. Let’s dive right into the AFC South!
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 9.5
- HC: DeMeco Ryans
- OC: Bobby Slowik
- DC: Matt Burke
This trio of coaches is back for year 2 after a successful first year. Ryans and Slowik brought the Kyle Shanahan offense directly from San Francisco last year and it was quite a success. Like 25 other teams in the NFL, they employ a West Coast offense that is short yardage pass first that opens up the run game and the deep pass, and the Texans have a group of receivers that will allow them to do basically whatever they want.
When it comes to running the ball, Houston uses an outside zone scheme that requires a little patience from the RB. Linemen are both aggressive and flexible, often bouncing out of their positions to seal an edge or open another lane. While Joe Mixon is certainly aging, he should be right at home in this scheme.
I’m still a huge fan of Matt Burke, though this is essentially DeMeco Ryans’ defense. There might be no better edge rushing duo in football than Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. This is a weapon for the Texans as they prefer to only rush 4 while dropping everyone else into coverage. This is close to a wide 9 setup, which could leave Houston vulnerable to the run.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Laremy Tunsil / Blake Fisher
- LG: Kenyon Green / Kendrick Green
- C: Juice Scruggs / Jake Patterson
- RG: Shaq Mason
- RT: Tytus Howard / Blake Fisher
Stop me if you heard this before, but the Texas offensive line was riddled with injuries in 2023. Shocker, I know.
Tunsil is one of the best pass protectors in football. CJ Stroud has a luxury on his blind side.
Kenyon Green was a rookie in 2022 but missed the entire 2023 season with a shoulder injury he suffered in the preseason. The dude with nearly the same name can be serviceable should Kenyon miss any time or not be up for the task.
Scruggs was a rookie last season, and the hope is that he makes improvements from his PFF ranking of 80th. Jake Patterson is graded higher than Scruggs which is interesting.
Mason is on the back 9 of his career but displayed that he still can hang at the NFL level last season.
Howard has been with the organization since the team drafted him in the first round of 2019. He carries a rank of 89th from Pro Football Focus and is arguably the worst part of the starting 5.
Fisher is a 2nd round pick out of Notre Dame who will need coaching but adds depth and injury protection to this unit.
Verdict
CJ Stroud did an incredibly good job implementing this offense in his rookie season. Personally, it’s tough to imagine a better QB to invest in for the long haul at this moment in time. Funny thing is, this offense has only been improved in the offseason too. Stroud is going off as QB 5, the 45th pick off the board. Sign me up.
Stefon Diggs was brought in to be WR1, keep that in mind when drafting other WRs here. Nico Collins will be the deeper underneath target in lanes where he can pick up yards after the catch, and Tank Dell will probably receive less targets, but might be more efficient when he gets them as he could be the forgotten man in defensive matchups. Collins is pick 28, WR 11, Diggs is 35th, WR 21, and Dell is 64th, WR 28. At least one of these guys is not going to live up to his ADP. There’s only one ball to go around. This WR room is also incredibly deep as Noah Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, and Robert Woods are here as well.
The TE position is also a staple in Kyle Shanahan-based offenses, see Kittle, George. Dalton Schultz was TE 11 last season and is being drafted as TE 15, pick 120. I’d take him before Freirmuth or Kmet for sure.
The Texans DST is also improving. Last year they were DST 15 in standard scoring. That’s where the are being drafted this year as well. They may not crack the top 12 this year, but I do think they improve as an overall defense in 2024.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Shane Steichen
- OC: Jim Bob Cooter
- DC: Gus Bradley
This trio of coaches is also back for another go around with the Colts. The offense that was intended here in 2023 never really came to fruition as Anthony Richardson’s season was cut short. Since Gardner Minshew did not have the same skillset, a different offense was implemented. Assuming Richardson is healthy and remains the starter, we will see a lot of RPOs out of the shotgun. This buys the QB some time and gives him options. Eventually a good QB will be able to make the call between two plays at the line of scrimmage based on what the opposing defense is doing, but Richardson probably needs some polishing in order to do that. It wouldn’t surprise me if the coaching staff asks Richardson to run less so as to keep him healthy. Otherwise they’ll have to revamp the whole offense again when they go wacko for Flacco.
On defense the Colts are good at pressuring the QB with only 4 rushers. Blitzing minimally, they were 5th in the NFL in sacks in 2023. Deforest Buckner is a key reason why the Colts are able to do this. The secondary plays a lot of zone coverage, actually playing the least amount of man coverage in the league.
Last season the Colts gave up the 5th most points in the league. Teams who were successful against them were able to stave off the pass rush, install a running scheme that features wide runs as opposed to running at Buckner and Grover Stewart, and passing attacks that were able to get receivers into space and pick up yards after the catch. While Gus Bradley has a good track record of success in his career, he has also not had the horses at times. You can argue that he just doesn’t have the personnel in the secondary that he needs in Indy. When Bradley was at his best he had players named Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Brandon Browner, and Kam Chancellor, a.k.a. the Legion of Boom from Seattle’s Super Bowl appearances. There aren’t names like that in this Indianapolis secondary.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Bernhard Raimann
- LG: Quenton Nelson
- C: Ryan Kelly
- RG: Will Fries
- RT: Braden Smith
The Colts went from a severely underperforming unit in 2022, and the big reason why many fantasy players got burned by taking Jonathan Taylor #1 overall, to a significantly improved group in 2023, and all the starters are returning for 2024.
Raimann is the 6th ranked tackle in all of football and his counterpart on the other end of the line, Smith, is ranked 5th.
It was assumed, by folks like myself, that Nelson’s best days were behind him. He proved me wrong last year by allowing but 1 sack all season. Hopefully he stays healthy as he reminded everyone why he’s one of the best guards in football.
Kelly is the 7th ranked center in football and has continued to improve as his now 8 year career has gone on.
With an overall rank of 37, Fries is the “weakest” spot on the line. He’s a 2021 7th round pick who has continued to improve from season to season.
There’s even some solid depth here and the Colts took 2 more linemen in this past draft. This is a very good group.
Verdict
Anthony Richardson’s skillset is running and taking deep shots throwing the ball. He will need to continue to work on short to intermediate throws, and you know, stay on the field. He missed out on some development time in 2023. Richardson is being drafted at pick 52, the 6th QB off the board. That’s a little too rich for me as I doubt he plays a full season.
Provided Richardson does stay healthy however, the beneficiaries of the offense could be Alex Pierce and rookie Adonai Mitchell, who will be the deep shot guys as opposed to Michael Pittman. I am particularly big on Mitchell and will be looking to take him in the double digit rounds of the draft. Pittman’s ADP is 32, WR 20. Too pricey for me to bank on a repeat fantasy season like last year. Don’t get me wrong, Pittman is good, but he’ll perform better with a traditional pocket passer like Minshew or Flacco.
Zach Moss is gone and this backfield is basically Jonathan Taylor’s once more. 20 touches a game are in the realm of possibilities. Taylor is being drafted at RB 6, at the turn of the first and second round. If I have the 10th, 11th, or 12th pick in 12 team leagues, I’ll be eyeing him for sure. I’d be looking at any starting RB who gets to run behind this offensive line.
The Colts DST finished 11th last year, but this year they are getting no love as they are being drafted as DST 18. I’m not going to draft them either as they are a Deforest Buckner injury away from being in real trouble.
The last thing I’ll mention is that Jelani Woods is quite athletic and talented. He missed all of 2023 with hamstring issues, but ideally he is TE1 for the Colts. I’m not really advocating for him in this offense, nor am I suggesting that you should draft him at his ADP of 252. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if he becomes fantasy relevant in 2024. I’ll be paying attention during the preseason and in the first few weeks of the regular season.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Doug Pederson
- OC: Press Taylor
- DC: Ryan Nielsen
The Jags use a West Coast based offense that features the shotgun and RPOs, fairly similar to what the Colts are doing. Trevor Lawrence looks like his development has been capped, so this simplified offense might be best suited for him. On any pass play, Lawrence will likely have 2 options: a short completion or the option to throw down the field if there is single coverage.
The running game is an outside zone one in which the Jags can be effective if they have the right matchup. They use the pass to set up the run and the use of shotgun often forces opposing to defenses to sort of guess the direction in which the RB will go. Again, effectiveness is based on matchup and whether or not the Jags are having any success with the passing game, which they are more often than not.
The Jaguars gave DC Mike Caldwell his walking papers and brought in Ryan Nielsen to be the new coordinator on defense. Nielsen will move his defensive linemen all over the place in an effort to keep opposing offenses guessing. In the secondary Nielsen will institute a very different scheme as he prefers press coverage and man-to-man over zone. I’m curious as to how the members of Jaguars secondary will handle this change. For some it may be helpful, but for others it may not. One of Nielsen’s challenges will be to get the team to buy in to his style and scheme. It will definitely be something to pay attention to as the season progresses.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Cam Robinson
- LG: Ezra Cleveland
- C: Mitch Morse
- RG: Brandon Scherff
- RT: Anton Harrison
The Jaguars, out of serious necessity, have revamped their offensive line for this season.
Robinson served a 4 game suspension last season for performance enhancing drugs, but he earned a 49th rank from PFF. He’s a better pass blocker than run blocker, which is good for Trevor Lawrence’s blind side.
Cleveland joins the Jags from Minnesota. He’s an average NFL lineman.
Mitch Morse it the big acquisition for this line. He previously was with Buffalo and he replaces Luke Fortner who was a liability at center.
Scherff is the best player on this line earning a 24th overall rank. He played better last season as well.
Harrison is a first round rookie last year, and the Jags are hoping he can make some improvements this season. He needs to if he wants to remain a starter in the NFL.
Verdict
The biggest issue with this offensive line is their run blocking. As a unit they are quite behind most teams in the league in this category. As such, Travis Etienne is not a player that’s on my radar in 2024, especially at his 2nd round price tag. But he was the 3rd highest scoring RB last season you say? He was basically a boom or bust guy from week to week. There are multiple instances of him putting up less that 8 fantasy points. I don’t want my RB1 to have a bunch of dud weeks. If he fell a round or 2 I might consider it, but I’ll leave him for advantageous matchups in DFS.
Christian Kirk appears to be the guy who really makes this passing game work. When he was out of the lineup last year, the team struggled to replace his route running ability that really gelled with Lawrence. Kirk is pick 69, WR 32. That’s a steal.
Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas, Jr. could prove to be better for this offense than just having Calvin Ridley, but that remains to be seen. Each will likely have some big games along the way, but consistent fantasy production is unlikely with either player at the moment. Thomas goes off at pick 113, and Davis goes at 145, so it isn’t as if you’re taking huge risks.
Since this is Pederson’s offense and he calls the plays on game day, the TE position is a very fruitful area for fantasy production. This goes back to Pederson’s days with the Eagles and Zach Ertz. As such, Evan Engram is definitely in play again in 2024. Engram is pick 72, TE 8. That’s the end of the 6th round and not a bad place to pick up a TE if you have your QB, RB and WR starters covered.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 6.5
- HC: Brian Callahan
- OC: Nick Holz
- DC: Dennard Wilson
First year head coach Brian Callahan is going to bring the winds of change to the Titans organization. He will implement a pass first, West Coast offense in Nashville. He will try to turn Will Levis into a version of Joe Burrow, which is to say a field general who can complete short yardage passes to set up the run and sparingly take deep shots. When they do run, the preferred method will be outside zone runs which will hopefully dovetail nicely with the zone blocking scheme that will be installed.
First year DC Dennard Wilson will install a 3-4 base defense that will actually send more than 3 after the QB on any given play. The Titans have the luxury of 3 of the biggest men in football on the defensive line that is going to make the Titans hard to run against. Wilson’s bread and butter is in coaching secondaries, which he has done for years including most recently in Baltimore. He is likely to play press coverage with his outside CBs and try to make a splash by being an aggressive defense right away. We shall see how they do.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: JC Latham
- LG: Peter Skoronski
- C: Lloyd Cushenberry / Daniel Brunskill
- RG: Saahdiq Charles / Daniel Radunz
- RT: Nicholas Petit-Frere / Daniel Brunskill / Leroy Watson
The Titans used the 7th overall pick to take JC Latham out of Alabama, and they fully intend on starting him right away at LT. Latham was deserving of the high pick, but no transition to the NFL is assured.
Peter Skoronski was a 1st round pick last year, and he was quite serviceable in his rookie season. It’s possible he can improve in year 2.
Cushenberry joins the club from Denver and is a very good center.
The right side of this line is where things begin to fall off a cliff. The penciled in starters of Charles and Petit-Frere rank 62nd and 106th. Radunz is ranked higher than both of these, so I’m not sure what’s keeping him out of the starting lineup. Both he and Brunskill are versatile guys who can play all over the line.
Bill Callahan has left Cleveland to join his head coaching son here. Callahan has 25 years of experience and has built some great lines, including the one the Browns currently have. Many are discounting this group, but I believe they’ll be in the top half of the league by the season’s end.
Verdict
The good thing is that no one believes in the Titans this year, so the opportunity to exercise some game theory here is very much in play.
The first Titan to go off the board is WR Calvin Ridley with the 78th pick. He may not be consistent, but 78 is probably too low for him.
Next is Tony Pollard a few picks later at 81. I’m less interested in him as I can’t say for sure if he RB1, RB2, or part of a time share with Tajae Spears. Pollard was a massive disappointment last year as a bell cow back in Dallas.
DHop goes at pick 92, Spears at 103, Levis at 166, Chig Okonkwo at 174, and Tyler Boyd at 245. Boyd has being playing under Brian Callahan for the last few years, so if anyone has a leg up in the system it is him. I’ll probably pass on DHop as there are other paths I want to take at that point in the draft, but I’d bet on Spears at 103 or Levis as a backup. You could do worse at 245 than Tyler Boyd.
Thanks for reading! See you with installment #4 soon!
