NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all, instead of bouncing around between conferences, I will focus on getting through one entire conference before jumping to the other. The reason why? Well, that’s because I researched it, and I dislike doing things the same way every time. So today, I present you with the AFC North.
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 10.5
- HC: John Harbaugh
- OC: Todd Monken
- DC: Zachary Orr
Last year, I thought Todd Monken would make more changes to the Baltimore offense than he did. There were more 3 WR sets, but ultimately, the Ravens did not pass as much as I thought they would. Jackson had roughly 100 fewer pass attempts than the other QBs at the top tier. It was Jackson’s 800-plus rush yards that helped him score so high. It looks as if Monken learned that the rumors about Lamar’s limitation are true. Throwing to the outside just isn’t something Lamar is comfortable with so Monken dialed it back to more of a rushing offense with concentrated targets toward the middle of the field.
Monken used a lot of power/gap rushing schemes last year with Gus Edwards. I would not expect that to change now that Derrick Henry is here. Having a true-featured RB should take a lot of pressure off Lamar. Jackson is still going to get his rushing yards, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s much less.
DC Mike MacDonald is gone to be head coach of Seattle, so Harbaugh promoted from within the organization by moving LB Coach Zachary Orr to DC. Zachary Orr used to play linebacker for these very Ravens before being forced into retirement with a spinal condition. That was in 2016. Orr will run a very similar and versatile 3-4 based defense that led the league in sacks a year ago despite being bottom of the leagues in blitzes.
The secondary is also quite versatile and are very good at confusing opposing QBs by showing one coverage before the snap before pivoting to a completely different one after the ball is snapped. Last year, the Ravens opposing QBs had the lowest QB rating, and Baltimore was 3rd in the league in interceptions. Doug Mallory is joining Baltimore this year to be the secondary coach, so it remains to be seen if Orr, a linebacker lifer and Mallory can replicate and instruct the secondary like it had been last season.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Ronnie Stanley / Josh Jones
- LG: Andrew Vorhees / Josh Jones
- C: Tyler Linderbaum
- RG: Ben Cleveland / Daniel Faalele
- RT: Roger Rosengarten / Daniel Faalele
Baltimore lost three starters from last year: RT Morgan Moses and LG John Simpson have departed for the Jets, and RG Kevin Zeitler is now with the Lions.
Ronnie Stanley is a big name among linemen, but sadly, his best days are probably behind him, and more time missed due to injury is likely in his future.
Andrew Vorhees has never played a snap in his NFL career. He was a 7th-round selection in 2023.
Linderbaum is the anchor here, one of the best centers in football.
Cleveland is a solid player as well, but he’s had limited time at RG.
Rosengarten was drafted in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. Out of Washington, he allowed a grand total of zero sacks, so the Ravens are excited about his potential.
This is not as solid of a group as we are used to seeing from the Ravens, however there is potential here. Coach Joe D’Alessandris has his work cut out for him, but he’s been here in Baltimore for 8 years and has 17 years of coaching experience.
Verdict
Lamar Jackson has lost 25 pounds since 2022. He’s also been missing from practice a lot lately as he has battled an illness. These are some red flags. He’s the 36th pick right now and QB4. I’ll monitor this as the preseason moves along. Luckily all my drafts are at the end of August because if I had to make the decision today I would be out on him.
Derrick Henry is not the same back he was 4 or 5 years ago, but he’s going to have plenty of touches and opportunity here in Baltimore. I wish the offensive line was a little better for him, but it’s not like he hasn’t ran behind worse lines either. Henry is going off at pick 22, the 10th RB off the board. That’s a tad high for me as I’d rather have him as my RB2 or RB1 if I had 2 stud WRs already. If he fell to me in the 3rd round then I would be all about it.
Mark Andrews is probably the only pass catcher in this offense I am interested in, well, I’d take Isaiah Likely to handcuff since Likely basically picked up where Andrews left off after he suffered a broken leg in week 11. With the concentrated passing targets being largely condensed to the middle of the field, it’s clear to see why pass catching TEs are successful in this offense. Andrews is currently pick 48, TE4. That’s sort of a discount from where he’s been drafted in the past. Likely is pick 175…perfect spot for a backup TE.
I would consider Zay Flowers solely based on his performance as a rookie in the offense. I could see him replicating his 12 fantasy points per game, I’m just not sure I want to take him in the 5th round where he is going. At that point I likely have my 2 starting receivers and may or may not be ready to add a flex option if I still need an RB2, a TE or a QB. If I have Andrews at this point, then I’m not double-dipping into this passing offense.
The Ravens DST was the second-highest scoring defense in 2023. This year they are being drafted as DST 3 at pick 224. I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but they should still be a top 10 group.
I don’t think I am interested in anything else here in Baltimore. 4th round rookie Devontez Walker intrigues me a little. I’m curious how he will fit into this offense. He’s someone I’ll be monitoring throughout the preseason.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 10.5
- HC: Zac Taylor
- OC: Dan Pitcher
- DC: Lou Anarumo
Even with the departure of OC Brian Callahan to be HC of the Titans, the Bengals offense should look quite similar to how it has in the past. Zac Taylor employs an offense similar to Sean McVay’s which is to say a slow paced West Coast offense that utilizes short passes to set up runs and takes deep shots a few times a game once the opposing defense can be caught off guard. This offense is so polished after years of the core working together that even when Burrow went down last season, Jake Browning could still put up decent fantasy numbers. New OC Dan Pitcher was formerly the QB coach in Cincinnati, so he very much knows the offense and will continue that trajectory in 2024. Taylor will continue to call the offensive plays on game day.
While Lou Anarumo historically used a 4-3 defense, I’d say that that just isn’t the case with the Bengals. The team typically rushes 4 defenders, but who those defenders are changes from snap to snap, so it’s hard for linemen and QBs to know for certain from where the pressure is coming. Anarumo is also quite good with developing young members of the secondary and has a track record of proven success. He likes his CBs to be able to execute press coverage.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Orlando Brown Jr. / Amarius Mims
- LG: Cordell Volson
- C: Ted Karras
- RG: Alex Cappa
- RT: Trent Brown / Amarius Mims
Orlando Brown had probably his worst season of his career in 2023, but the Bengals hope he can convince Pro Football Focus to move him up from 48th overall in their rankings.
Volson fills out the left side of this unit, which is their weak point, but he’s a capable NFL level lineman.
Karras and Cappa continue to be huge free agent acquisitions for this team.
Trent Brown comes here from the Patriots, and he may immediately be the best player on this line.
Amarius Mims was taken 18th overall in this past draft. The team hopes to give him time to develop, but he’s also here to hopefully step in for an injury and have the line not miss a beat.
Verdict
Ja’Marr Chase is WR5 and going off the board at pick 8. I think that’s appropriate and have no problem taking him there. He and Burrow have been a dynamic duo for some time now, going all the way back to college.
Joe Burrow is pick 58, QB7. If it’s the 5th or 6th round and I still need a QB, welcome to the team Joe! I like it even more if I took Chase in the first.
This is probably Tee Higgins’ (pick 57) last season in Cincy. If we are looking for who his successor might be, I humbly submit Jermaine Burton. The third round rookie may not have a huge 2024, but those of you in keeper leagues may want to target him with one of your last picks. He is pick 183.
Zack Moss was given $8 million this offseason. He is going off at pick 78, RB 26. While I think he will be the Joe Mixon replacement, that’s simply not something I am 100% on yet. Chase Brown has been with this team for some time now, has showed some flashes in the past, and can be drafted at pick 121. Zac Taylor has gone with a featured bellcow back throughout his coaching history, so I’d argue that it’s more likely that one of them gets the majority of snaps and touches in 2024. Maybe the move is to make sure you have both?
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Kevin Stefanski
- OC: Ken Dorsey
- DC: Jim Schwartz
Despite OC Alex Van Pelt’s departure, this is going to be the same offense, which is to say Kevin Stefanski’s West Coast run-first offense. The goal is to use one of the best offensive lines in football to establish the run and eventually use play-action passes to freeze defenders. Supposedly Deshaun Watson is great with the play action, but as I heard one fantasy pundit say the other day, “People would rather have poison ivy than draft Deshaun Watson.”
Jim Schwartz likes to change up his schemes as he is constantly paying attention to trends and assessing the team he is about to play. He will likely run a version of the 4-3 wide 9 setup on defense in which the edge rushers line up wide of the tackles they will line up against. Schwartz believes that opening up the tackles on the outside will allow linebacker pressure up the middle which will disrupt the QB/push him out of the pocket, potentially into the arms of the awaiting edge rushers. The secondary will be man-to-man on the outside, but a plethora of zone in the middle of the field, a confusing amount if truth be told. However, it works as this group was the best team against the pass last season. 9 wides can make teams easy to run against, though.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Jedrick Wills Jr.
- LG: Joel Bitonio
- C: Ethan Pocic
- RG: Wyatt Teller
- RT: Jack Conklin
Just a note to start off here, Bill Callahan, the line coach here for 4 years and huge influence on this success of this line, bolted to Tennessee to be with his son. Andy Dickerson is taking over the coaching duties. He has 20 years of coaching experience including most recently with Seattle. The line should still be good, but Dickerson doesn’t have the resume that Callahan does.
Last year this group incurred some injuries so they were not as effective. Willis and Conklin were both lost for the season, and both are still on the PUP list as of this writing.
The interior part of this line is arguably the best in football. Bitonio, Pocic and Teller are all top 12 at their positions. Pay attention to injuries though as the depth just didn’t appear to be there last season.
Verdict
The major question here is who is going to be the starting RB. Nick Chubb has every intention of returning to football, but I would put the YouTube link of his injury here if it were something I had the stomach to watch again. It wasn’t good, and asking him to be the RB he was before the injury just might not be possible. Chubb is currently the 93rd pick, RB 33. His counterpart, Jerome Ford, who may actually be the starter now, is going at pick 119, RB 40. These are incredible values for what could be the best running team in the NFL. Obviously pay attention to the preseason, but I’ll gladly take both these guys at their current ADPs.
Amari Cooper is in a contract year, so I expect some numbers out of him. He established a good rapport with Watson and is one of the better WRs in the NFL with play action route running. Cooper is pick 55, WR 29. If for some reason I’m in need of a WR2 in round 5, I’ll be eyeing him.
Watson isn’t in the discussion outside of 2 QB leagues. I suppose you could take him as a backup maybe, but I’d rather have someone like Matthew Stafford or Kirk Cousins.
David Njoku had his best fantasy season in 2023. I would caution against a repeat performance though as the team added a 3rd legitimate WR option in Jerry Jeudy. Njoku may still be a viable TE1 for your fantasy team, but he’s picked 90 and TE 11. That’s not a bad price for last year’s TE 5.
The Browns DST is pick 234. Last year they weren’t being drafted at all and they ended the season as DST 5. A Jim Schwartz DST should always be considered.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Mike Tomlin
- OC: Arthur Smith
- DC: Teryl Austin
Ah, just when I thought I was free of Art Smith, here he is taking over the Steeler offense. Smith is going to institute a run first scheme with like 5 different RBs and upset George Pickens and Pat Freirmuth owners. Seeing this man’s name on the coaching staff really makes me want to say that I want nothing to do with offense and just move on.
However, here’s what they are likely to do. It will indeed be a run first offense. The Steelers will likely utilize a wide zone run scheme, which is good for both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Sadly, I expect both to get playing time thus capping the ceiling for both backs. Also, Cordarelle Patterson is here in Pittsburgh now too. You have been warned.
When they do pass, it will be short, quick step drop backs with high completion percentage rates. There will typically be 2 receiving options per play, a short yardage high completion percentage and a deep threat option. Both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are better equipped for this than Desmond Ridder or Marcus Mariota were. If you can mentally rewind to 2019 and 2020 when Ryan Tannehill was suddenly a decent QB with the Titans, know that Art Smith was the brain behind it.
Teryl Austin is in his 3rd year as DC for Pittsburgh. Both he and Tomlin want a versatile defense with players who can move in and out of different setups, schemes, and coverages. They are very good at acquiring and coaching the players they need to do this. This enables them to scheme against their opponents’ weaknesses on a week-to-week basis. Their main goals are to 1. stop the run and 2. pressure the QB. With a healthy TJ Watt, this all is possible.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Broderick Jones / Dan Moore
- LG: Isaac Seumalo
- C: Zach Frazier / Nate Herbig
- RG: James Daniels
- RT: Troy Fautanu / Dylan Cook
Broderick Jones was a first round rookie last season, and he indeed looked like a rookie. Pittsburgh hopes he will improve in his second year.
Seumalo is an above average guard, PFF (Pro Football Focus) has him at 15th overall.
Daniels is also a competent professional and steady on the right side.
Both Frazier and Fautanu are rookies. Frazier was a 2nd round pick and Fautanu was a 1st. For years the Steelers had one of the best lines in football when Roethlisberger, AB, and Bell were mainstays here. Tomlin clearly recognizes the need for a good line and the team is making steps to improve it. Asking 2 rookies and 1 sophomore to do the job is bold for sure, I’d expect some growing pains along the way.
Verdict
I love the moves the team has made to better the offensive line. I hate the OC who is here to implement an offense that utilizes it. Fields and Wilson are not being drafted, but I cannot discount the possibility that one of them will rise to the level of at least being a solid fantasy backup. If I were to make a guess, I’d go with Russell Wilson as the better possibility of becoming the next Ryan Tannehill. (Did I just write that sentence?)
The Steelers should be able to run the ball. Do I want to incur the same headache I had with Bijan Robinson last season? The good news is that you don’t have to commit too much draft capital to either. Harris is pick 72 and Warren is 81. I can’t imagine having one without the other though as that just sounds like a recipe for frustration. The fact that CPatt is here just angers me more than it should.
If looking to take a receiver in this offense, I’d shy away from George Pickens. While he will have his games, there are going to times when he has 1 catch for 12 yards. In this offense I want to target, well no one, but if I had to it would be a short intermediate weapon. Those are Pat Freiermuth and rookie Roman Wilson, though Wilson suffered an ankle injury at camp that needs to be monitored. Smith has employed 2 TE sets frequently in his offenses so Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward could see some work that likely eats into Freirmuth’s production.
The Steelers DST is being drafted at 230, the 5th DST off the board. They were the 8th highest scoring defense last season. They’ll be right around there in 2024, so long as Watt stays on the field.
Thanks for reading! See you with installment #3 soon!
