NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all and welcome to year 2 of the coaching and offensive line breakdowns! If these are new to you, the reason I research these things is because it helps me determine who I want to invest in this upcoming season. Knowing coaches, coordinators, schemes, personnel, and offensive lines helps me identify strengths and weaknesses in all 32 NFL clubs. I’ll use this information on draft day, and it can help when building DFS lineups as well. DFS players will eventually learn that team X is bad against the run, but if I can figure it out before the season starts, well then that could be an advantage in the first few weeks of the season.
Additionally, it helps to avoid the pitfalls of assuming that just because a team was good last year, or because Josh Allen put up 410 standard fantasy points, that they’re going to be good again or have repeat fantasy performances. Nearly every team made coaching changes that will impact the on the field product, and every team made some sort of adjustment to their offensive line.
Like last year, I’ll do these in 8 installments, one division at a time. Today I give you the AFC East.
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 10.5
- HC: Sean McDermott
- OC: Joe Brady
- DC: Bobby Babich
Joe Brady took over the offensive coordinator duties last season after the Bills gave Ken Dorsey his walking papers on the heels of a 2 point loss to Denver on Monday Night Football. Under Brady, the Bills won 6 of their last 7 games. Seeing what they are going to do here on offense is fairly easy considering a. we just saw it in the second half of last year and b. their personnel moves this summer.
Brady essentially let Allen have more say in the offense, but he did insist on running more and scheming passing plays that utilized the middle of the field. Not only was the result more wins, but Allen’s turnover rate dropped significantly. Expect some more short yardage, middle of the field passes, which is good news for the tight ends, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir. Good luck figuring out which down the field threats are going to be consistent in this offense as MVS, KJ Hamler, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Andy Isabella, and Chase Claypool will not all be successful from a fantasy perspective. James Cook will also be involved in the passing game, likely more than ever, but look out for vultured TDs by Allen and rookie Ray Davis.
The Bills actually have a defensive coordinator now in Bobby Babich who has been with this organization for years in various roles on the defensive side of the ball. McDermott will still call plays for now and the defense will still have his fingerprints all over it. McDermott’s front scheme is a 4-3, but he rotates players frequently as he wants them fresh. This philosophy helped the Bills generate a ton of pressure and record the 4th most sacks in football in 2023.
Unfortunately the Bills lost both starting safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer as well as star CB Tre’Davious White. This is going to seriously test their secondary. Babich does have a history of developing defensive players, so we shall see. I expect other teams to attack the Bills with their passing games.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Dion Dawkins
- LG: David Edwards
- C: Connor McGovern
- RG: O’Cyrus Torrence
- RT: Spencer Brown
The Bills’ starting 5 showed improvement in 2023, particularly with run-blocking. They cut C Mitch Morse and RG Ryan Bates. They gave Edwards an extension this offseason with the intent of moving him into the starting lineup while McGovern moves to center, which is a downgrade at that position.
Dawkins and Brown are solid NFLers on the exterior of this line, but RG Torrence is their glaring weak spot. Good news is he was a rookie last season, so the hope is that he will make some improvements in his sophomore campaign.
While this group showed promise in the back half of 2023, they will need to make more improvements for this offense to reach its potential.
Verdict
Josh Allen’s ADP is 17, QB1. While the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis looks significant on paper, I’d argue that they have, to borrow some Moneyball terminology, re-created them in the aggregate. The offense will be run first, which will include Allen’s legs, but he may not have the same rushing TD stats. When he throws, it will be utilizing the short routes and middle of the field, for the most part. In order to do that though, they’ll need some deep threat decoys, something Diggs definitely did not want to be.
James Cook is pick 40, early in the 4th round. Cook went from averaging 12 rushes and 14 touches per game under Dorsey to 17 rushes and 21 touches per game under Brady. He’ll likely have a strong fantasy year, and I like him even more in PPR leagues as he’ll likely catch more passes this year than he has in any other. There could be a lack of TD production here though.
In the passing game I would welcome Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir onto my team. They come in at picks 52, 121, and 130. Samuel and Shakir are extreme values in 2024, though one of them likely emerges as the clear slot receiver. While someone like Keon Coleman may become the WR on the field the most, I don’t see an avenue for any one of the deep threats the Bills have signed to emerge as a steady contributor.
I’m not drafting the Bills DST this season.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 9.5
- HC: Mike McDaniel
- OC: Frank Smith
- DC: Anthony Weaver
A fast paced, West Coast offense is what McDaniel and Smith employ here in Miami. When it’s firing on all cylinders, it looks impressive. When it isn’t, you often wonder what happened. The answer is usually injuries. For example, no lineman topped 1,000 snaps last season.
There is speed at every position for the Miami Dolphins. The goal is to get the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly and into skill players who can make plays after the catch. This system is perfect for guys like Tyreek Hill.
The real issue here that no one seems to be talking about is the loss of DC Vic Fangio who has left for Philly. Fangio is a very good DC who prepares well against opposing offenses and makes great in game adjustments. These things won’t be there the way that the were last year. Anthony Weaver has been a DC before with Houston, but he most recently served as defensive line coach for Baltimore. They’ll use a 3- 4 that will fluctuate with added defenders being brought to the line as well.
Miami is unlikely to begin the season with LBs Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips who are recovering from, you guessed it, injuries. Miami will be challenged to pressure opposing QBs without adding rushers or blitzing. Add in some aging members of the secondary, and passing lanes could open more frequently against Miami than they did a season ago.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Terron Armstead / Patrick Paul
- LG: Isaiah Wynn
- C: Aaron Brewer
- RG: Robert Jones
- RT: Austin Jackson
This unit was plagued by injuries in 2023. Unfortunately they lost both Connor Williams and Robert Hunt this year, which isn’t helpful.
I got to think that the Dolphins are counting their blessings that Armstead decided to come back for another year. He’s an excellent lineman, he just can’t stay healthy.
Isaiah Wynn’s best days might be behind him, and injuries have been a factor as well. As of this writing he is on the PUP list.
Aaron Brewer has been brought in here from Tennessee. He’s a very good run blocker but has had issues with pass blocking.
Jones and Jackson are serviceable though not stellar.
Patrick Paul is a 2nd round rookie who was not a first rounder for a reason, but could be coached up and serve as a solid backup.
Verdict
Cue the “Is Tua overpaid?” questions. While he did lead the league in passing yards a season ago, he was only QB9 on the season. Tua only put up 74 rushing yards and 0 TDs as compared to Josh Allen’s 525 yards and 15 rushing TDs. We may see the Dolphins trailing in games and forcing Tua to throw to win games. Let’s see how he does.
The thing about this offense is that it feels like it’s always holding on by a thread. There is so much injury history around this team that it makes it hard to trust any one of them for a full season.
De’Von Achane, who is listed as RB2 on the depth chart, is going off at pick 20 overall, the 9th off the board. Raheem Mostert, who had 20 TDs last year, is pick 81, RB 27. Both backs have injury history and both backs will have to deal with the presence of rookie Jaylen Wright. Also, as noted, their defense is not going to be good, so playing with a lead and running it as much as they did last year is probably not going to happen.
Tyfreek Hill is pick 3 overall. Definitely warranted, but at this point I’d expect to miss him a couple of games during the season. If you told me he wouldn’t miss a snap, then I’d say he should probably be pick #1. Jaylen Waddle is pick 37, WR 19. Waddle missed some time last season as well, but with an average of 15 fantasy points per game in his 3 year career, you could do worse at pick 37. With the majority of targets going to those two, I’m not really interested in anything else here in Miami.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 4.5
- HC: Jerod Mayo
- OC: Alex Van Pelt
- DC: DeMarcus Covington
Man that felt weird not penciling in Bill Belichick’s name as HC. Instead we have Jerod Mayo, who’s never coordinated a defense nor offense. As such, he’s going to leave both sides of the ball to his coordinators to install schemes and call plays on game day.
Let’s start with Alex Van Pelt (AVP) who is going to install an offense similar to what he ran in Cleveland as OC of the Browns. I was initially curious why AVP would jump ship from a solid team to this rebuild in New England, and then I remembered that AVP was basically an OC executing his HC’s (Kevin Stefanski) wishes. In Foxboro, Van Pelt will have a larger say in the offense, though it probably won’t look all that different.
The Patriots will be a run first version of a West Coast offense. Jacoby Brissett is the likely starter at the beginning of the season which is a good thing for Drake Maye as he won’t be thrown to the wolves right away. Mayo hinted that Maye could win the job, but I really hope that’s just him being cagy because that will likely only hurt Maye. Additionally, AVP and Brissett have already worked together, fairly successfully, so he should be able to execute the offense that Van Pelt wants.
The Patriots are going to run the heck out of the football. When they do throw, it will be short, high percentage passes (probably like 6 yards when they need 7 for the first). We’re talking short, quick looks, so a player like Demario Douglas might have late round value. Deep threats like KJ Osborn, Jalon Reagor, and rookie Ja’Lynn Polk are likely to be highly inconsistent with the fantasy production.
DeMarcus Covington has been with the Patriots for the last 4 years as the defensive line coach and has worked along Mayo for some time now. They will continue to run a version of the 3-4 that will have 3 dedicated rushers on every play. They will utilize the blitz but continue to focus on stopping the run, which is where they excelled last year. The return of LB Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez are key to this defense having a shot of keeping the Pats in games.
In the secondary the Patriots are likely to put Gonzalez in man coverage against the other team’s best or X receiver and then play zone with the rest of the secondary. Considering the personnel, and the departure of both Belichicks (son Steven ran this secondary for years), it’s going to be quite difficult against the likes of Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Aaron Rodgers whom the Pats get to play twice each. They also get Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Chukwuma Okorafor / Caden Wallace
- LG: Cole Strange / Layden Robinson
- C: David Andrews
- RG: Sidy Sow
- RT: Michael Onwenu / Caden Wallace
The good news here is that Van Pelt has brought Scott Peters along with him from Cleveland. Peters served as the assistant offensive line coach for one of the best lines in football. He’s going to have to put in some work here though.
New England lost T Trent Brown to Cincinnati and replacing him with Okorafor is questionable at best since he isn’t that good to begin with and he only has 2 career snaps at LT. Watch your blind side Brissett/Maye.
Cole Strange is also not great, at least he hasn’t lived up to his 29th overall selection. He probably won’t make week one as he is on the PUP list.
David Andrews is pretty solid at center, but he is a better run blocker than a pass blocker.
Sidy Sow showed some improvement last year and Onwenu is a caliber lineman. The right side of the unit is probably “the best.” Penn State lineman Caden Wallace was drafted in the third round and if he acclimates well he could replace Okorafor at the LT position.
Layden Robinson is a 4th round rookie out of Texas A&M who may end up starting in week one.
Verdict
Rhamondre Stevenson is basically the only person I’m interested in on this team. Stevenson got a 4 year $36 million extension this offseason which solidifies his role as the primary back here. I’m only interested in him for that reason, the volume. He won’t be running in a great scheme with a great QB and a great offensive line, all of those things are likely to be sub par from NFL standards. Instead, he may get close to 25 touches a game. Not good for the long run, but could pay off his RB 19, overall 59th pick price tag in 2024.
The best hope for this Patriots team and the coaching staff is that they are decent in a competitive division in 2024. Drake Maye likely takes over as the starting QB by 2025 and the team has made some serious improvements on both sides of the football, either by coaching, signings, trades, or future draft picks. If it goes horrible, I could be writing about a completely different set of coaches next year.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 9.5
- HC: Robert Saleh
- OC: Nathaniel Hackett
- DC: Jeff Ulbrich
For good or for bad, the Jets are doubling down on their 2023 plan here in 2024.
Saleh will be the defensive play caller though he and Ulbrich work well together and share similar philosophies. This 4-3 base defense is diverse in scheme and coverage. Ultimately though the hope is that the edge rushers are capable of disrupting the offensive line and putting pressure on the QB. Saleh sees such importance in this that he spent multiple 1st round picks on the position and made a huge trade this offseason and acquired Haason Reddick from the Eagles. Reddick is a huge get for this defense. The only problem, however, is that at the time of this writing Reddick has yet to report to camp as he holds out for a new contract. Assuming that gets done, the Jets should have the horses to accomplish what they want to on defense.
Last year people referred to this defense as championship level. Well with Reddick it has the potential to be even better. Ideally, the Jets are capable of pressuring the QB with their front 4 while the rest of the linebackers and secondary can to drop back into coverage where they will have an advantage, especially with CB Sauce Gardner who will likely be in man coverage with the other team’s best receiver.
The offense will be Aaron Rodgers’ offense. Hackett is still here to be a yes man for Rodgers. The QB will look to establish the run while padding his stats with short TD passes. There will be a lot of play action and the demand Rodgers will have on his receivers is for them to identify coverage on their own. We didn’t get to see if this would work as Rodgers’ 2023 season lasted 4 plays. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard will likely be able to do this, but after that it will be Rodgers’ determination that dictates playing time for the likes of Mike Williams, Malchi Corley, Jason Brownlee, and Xavier Gipson.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Tyron Smith / Olu Fashanu
- LG: John Simpson
- C: Joe Tippmann
- RG: Alijah Vera-Tucker
- RT: Morgan Moses / Olu Fashanu
Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the only big loss last season for the Jets as this offensive line incurred multiple injuries as well. They also underperformed. So the Jets basically overhauled the entire unit.
The organization finally gave up on the fever dream that was Mekhi Becton. While he’s extremely talented, he just couldn’t stay on the field at the LT position. He is gone to Philadelphia (more on them later).
The two big gets are Tyron Smith from the Cowboys and Morgan Moses from the Ravens. Smith particularly is noted as the #1 pass blocker by Pro Football Focus.
John Simpson is probably the biggest liability here, though he’s an NFL caliber lineman who also comes over from Baltimore.
Tippmann did well enough to take over for Connor McGovern.
Vera-Tucker is also recovering from a torn achilles. The Jets are hopeful he is ready for week one. He’s a better run blocker than pass, but is overall quite serviceable. He also basically never allows a sack.
Olu Fashanu is a first round rookie and is insurance should either Moses or Smith miss time.
Overall, if they stay healthy, this a great offensive line for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense to execute Aaron Rodgers’ offense.
Verdict
First, know that despite my dislike for the man, everything I’m about to say is predicated on the idea that Aaron Rodgers has a healthy season. Though, it wouldn’t be the worse thing in the world should Tyrod Taylor have to start a few games.
The priority here for me is Breece Hall. He’s currently RB2 and a first round pick. While I would argue that Bijan Robinson should be considered ahead of him, Hall has the talent, the offensive scheme, the offensive line, and the backfield is basically his. Swing away.
Garrett Wilson is WR8 and a 14th overall pick. While I would prefer to have a different WR1 on my fantasy team, he does make a formidable WR2 if you go back-to-back at the WR position.
Mike Williams is going off at pick 136. He’s still on the PUP list and whether or not he can adhere to Rodgers’ demand of seeing coverages and running the necessary routes remains to be seen. Allen Lazard is the forgotten man after Rodgers lobbied to have the Jets bring him in last season. He basically isn’t being drafted as fantasy managers are going for Malachi Corley and Xavier Gipson over Lazard. Rodgers likes what he likes and he’s quite particular. Don’t forget about Allen Lazard.
If you’re the type who likes drafting a DST early, far be it for me to criticize you for going after the Jets. Scoring should be fairly low in the Jets games though, so you’re more likely to accrue fantasy points for low scoring games than for an excessive amount of defensive scoring and turnovers.
Thanks for reading! See you with installment #2 soon!
