Fantasy Football

Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Forecast 2024

Adonai Mitchell

Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Forecast 2024

From what I am gathering, Adonai Mitchell is looking like the darling of many fantasy football analysts who spend the time to take a deep a dive into upcoming prospects. Mitchell is the youngest of four boys and the son of a former model and a former stand-up comedian. His mom, Darcy Padgett, and father, Norman Mitchell, are founders of a non-profit organization called Bee Busy Wellness that aims to help low income families. Considering the philanthropy of his parents as well as the fact that he had to put in extra work to keep up with his brothers’ athletics, Mitchell already has a base setting that could make him a fan favorite.

Recruiting and Collegiate Background

Adonai Mitchell’s older brothers were primarily basketball players. As such, Mitchell’s first athletic endeavors were in basketball, but after switching to football in middle school, he never looked back. Mitchell started off at the QB position for a local Houston school, but after switching high schools between his freshman and sophomore year, he moved to WR. Mitchell once again switched high schools for his senior year by moving to Nashville with his father. The goal was to increase Mitchell’s profile for collegiate offers. It worked. He received offers from Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee to start, but other schools like Texas and Auburn came calling a little later in the recruiting process. Mitchell initially committed to Ole Miss, but flipped to Georgia late in the process.

While Mitchell had a solid freshman year with Georgia and won a national championship, his sophomore year was derailed with an ankle injury. Still, he returned in time to help Georgia secure a repeat championship. Here’s where his story gets interesting. After back-to-back championships, Adonai Mitchell transferred to Texas. Why? His daughter was born in the summer of 2021, and Mitchell’s parents had been raising her while he was at school. Mitchell transferred to be closer to her.

Mitchell had his best statistical season at Texas with 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 TDs. Then he elected to forgo his senior season and enter the NFL Draft.

Statistical and Athletic Notes

Below are the notes I made about Adonai Mitchell prior to this year’s draft.

  • 4 star recruit
  • Has a daughter and transferred to Texas from Georgia to be closer to her
  • Skipping senior season for draft
  • Long and limber athlete, reaches top speed quickly
  • Stutter steps are quality
  • Good control of body, can stop and move on command with ease and make in-air adjustments
  • Tough. Youngest of four boys and grew up constantly competing
  • Great concentration, only 1 drop in 22 and 23 after 6 in 21
  • Has a history of being “clutch”
  • Ankle injury issues in his past, kept him out of most of his second year at Georgia
  • He never a primary weapon in college, though he blossomed at Texas
  • Could struggle against press coverage and have difficulty getting off the line in NFL
  • Doesn’t catch many contested balls
  • Doesn’t break tackles after the catch
  • Was never a high-volume target in college

Rookie Odds

Mitchell is currently +5000 to win offensive rookie of the year. While I love the odds, they’re this high because of the caliber of the other WRs and QBs who were selected ahead of him, as well as the style of offense in which Mitchell finds himself in Indy.

The Good

Adonai Mitchell is battle-tested. I would certainly covet his history of performing well in high-profile games from a coaching/GM perspective. He has a variety of athletic skills that will make him viable in any offense. The Indianapolis Colts are in clear need of a true WR2 behind Michael Pittman, and Mitchell could indeed be that guy. This is a good landing spot for Mitchell from an NFL career perspective as he will not be initially asked to be a primary producer for the Colts. Ideally, the Colts will be a run-first offense behind Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson. When they have to throw, Michael Pittman will be the primary target, and Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin and Alec Pierce are still on this team. Adonai Mitchell is going to have the luxury of easing into this offense with the coaching staff being able to determine when to give him a bigger role.

The Bad

Everything I just said about this being “good,” makes this situation not the best of landing spots for fantasy purposes. The Colts are probably not going to be a throw heavy offense unless they end up trailing in games during second halves. Anthony Richardson lost a lot of educational reps last season due to injury and is a “running QB” so relying on him to deliver passes to a rookie WR consistently is not the best of hopes. While there’s a lot to like about Adonai Mitchell, him being a weekly starter for you fantasy team is probably not a good thing for you championship hopes.

2023 Redraft Fantasy Outlook

Adonai Mitchell is currently being selected 165th overall in standard 12-team leagues. That’s a late 14th-round pick. I’d argue that that’s precisely where he should be going. At this point in the draft your team should be mostly complete, at least your weekly starters should be locked in. Taking a flyer on Mitchell in the 14th round in case he does develop into a reliable weapon, becomes more integrated into the offense, or ends up being a matchup-based start during one of your player’s bye weeks is a risk worth taking at this stage of the draft.

Dynasty Outlook

Oh, I’m so in for dynasty. Adonai Mitchell is a motivated young man who has a history of stepping up in big situations. He will need to become a more detailed oriented receiver in the NFL and add some strength to matchup against bigger, stronger defensive backs to truly unlock his ceiling, but Mitchell has the physical traits and talents to be an effective NFLer.

Bold Prediction

I’m trying really hard not let my emotions get in the way, but as the father of a daughter myself, Mitchell leaving 2 time national champion Georgia to be closer to his daughter at Texas is really making me want to route for this guy. His familial background also demonstrates a penchant for competitiveness and good values. He isn’t going to have a ton of production with the run-first Colts, but I think he will be WR2 behind Michael Pittman sooner rather than later.

Fun Fact

Adonai Mitchell caught the go-ahead TD for Georgia in the National Championship Game in 2021.

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