Aaron Jones Fantasy 2025
The Minnesota Vikings have made some significant changes to their interior line this season that should boost the fantasy value of running back Aaron Jones.
The Vikings’ rushing offense ranked 25th in the NFL in 2024, averaging 4.1 yards per rush. Their top rushing player was Aaron Jones, who led the team with 1,138 rushing yards. On the surface, the numbers don’t seem so bad; however, as a team, the Vikings have only had nine rushing touchdowns all year. The Vikings had one more rushing score than the Jets, but had 184 more season carries. Clearly, something needed to be done about their offensive line, as the lack of a goalline rushing attack was hurting their offense.
Offensive Line Upgrades
The Vikings signed Guard Will Fries from the Colts this offseason. He is projected to start at right guard. Fries was (arguably) the best available upgrade to the position in free agency. At 6-foot-6 and 305 pounds, Fries is much bigger than most of the guards the Vikings have used in coach Kevin O’Connell’s tenure with the team. After watching quarterback Sam Darnold get sacked nine times in a playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Vikings decided not to count on improvement from existing personnel in 2025. Fries’ presence should help the rushing attack and keep their franchise quarterback J.J. McCarthy on his feet.
The Vikings selected OG Donovan Jackson from Ohio State in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. At 6’4, 310lbs, the Vikings get another big man to beef up their interior line. The 24th overall pick will start for the Vikings at Left Guard.
However, the biggest addition to the line was the signing of center Ryan Kelly, also from the Colts. Kelly reached an agreement with the Vikings on a two-year, $18 million deal. Kelly was part of one of the league’s premier offensive lines when he teamed up with a young Quenton Nelson at left guard and Braden Smith at right tackle after they were drafted in 2018. Kelly was known for his unique ability to get to second-level blocks and his mental advantage that helped him diagnose defensive fronts.
What Are the Odds?
Currently, the Best Minnesota Sportsbooks have the Vikings at +110 to make the postseason, and +400 to win the NFC North. The Lions, Packers and Bears all look to take the next step, whereas the Vikings are an interesting team entering 2025 with J.J. McCarthy leading the offense. Last season was cut short due to injury; however, Sam Darnold has moved on, and the Vikings are fully invested in their young talent.
The best bet, in my opinion, is Aaron Jones Over/Under 900 yards (-110). I know age is a concern, but when healthy, Jones has been a beast in yards per carry. Aaron Jones has never ended a season with less than a 4.5 yards per carry average, with four seasons (2022, 2020, 2018, and 2017) featuring an average of over five yards per carry.
Fantasy Impact
Aaron Jones enters 2025 with a more capable backfield partner than he had last season, thanks to the Vikings trading for Jordan Mason. Even so, Jones dominated the touches in 2024, handling 268 of Minnesota’s 438 rush attempts across the regular season and playoffs, good for a 61.2% share. He did leave one game early, but played all 17 games for the second time in three years.
Inside the five-yard line, Jones got 65% of the team’s rushing attempts and posted a 47.5% route participation rate, which was the 13th-highest among all running backs, per FantasyPointsData. Mason may profile as a classic short-yardage bruiser, but he wasn’t exactly dominant near the goal line last year: he managed just three yards and two scores on nine carries inside the five. That’s not enough to guarantee him those high-value touches this season.
Jones didn’t light it up in short-yardage either, with -2 yards and three touchdowns on 13 carries inside the five — but he also chipped in two targets, one of which resulted in a receiving score. His pass-catching ability could keep him on the field in scoring situations if both backs struggle to convert on the ground.
Jones’s receiving game remains a strength. Among 86 running backs with 50+ routes run last season (including playoffs), he ranked:
- 11th in target share (11.1%)
- T-26th in targets per route run (0.21)
- 12th in targets per game (3.6)
- T-6th in receptions (54)
- 12th in receiving yards per game (23.3)
- T-33rd in yards per route run (1.31)
- T-13th in receiving TDs (2)
He averaged 12.7 half-PPR points per game (RB20) and totaled 216.1 points overall (RB16), putting him just outside RB1 territory by season’s end. With a bit more touchdown luck, he could easily break into that top tier in 2025. It’s also worth remembering he finished as the RB9 overall and RB11 in points per game as recently as 2022.
