Draft Strategy

A Tier-riffic Draft Strategy

By Doug Burrell

Posted on August 24, 2023

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Draft season is quickly approaching and it’s a great time to work on your draft strategy. We make it easy for you with our draft rankings, which not only show our rankings, but how they compare to the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Our overall rankings are sorted by the Value Based Drafting (VBD) method and, if you only use those, you can ensure yourself a great draft. By comparing our rankings to the ECR, you can see which players we like more and therefore focus on drafting those players, when possible. But, if you want to take your drafting to the next level, I’ll show you how to combine VBD, ADP, and Tiers to dominate your draft.

Tiers refer to grouping players at the same position based on their expected performance and value. Players within the same tier have a similar range of outcomes and are therefore essentially equal in value. VBD still sorts players, but since projections aren’t perfect, tiers help to account for the limitations of VBD. Tiers are subjective. Everyone has their own way of creating tiers, some just by feel, while others use a more mathematical approach. The only important thing is that you’re valuing the players within the tiers very similarly. 

I filter our rankings by position and add two columns, one for tiers and one for ADP. This allows me to quickly see which players I can wait on within a tier. For example, if I want to wait until the middle rounds to draft a quarterback, I have Justin Herbert and Geno Smith in the same tier. Herbert is ranked QB-7 with an ADP of 7.05, while Smith is QB-11 with an ADP of 10.07. Because they’re in the same tier, I am acknowledging that I value them similarly. And although Herbert is the higher ranked of the two, I can wait three rounds and draft Smith, therefore allowing me to load up on other postions before taking a quarterback of equal value. 

I went through our top 25 QBs, top 60 RBs and WRs and top 20 TEs and highlighted the best values in each tier. This gives me a huge advantage of knowing how long I can wait before getting a player I want, allowing me to stack my team with value. Let’s look at each position and talk about how you might want to use this information in your draft.

Quarterback

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR	Tier	ADP
1	Patrick Mahomes II	KC	QB	1	0	1	3.02
2	Jalen Hurts	PHI	QB	3	1	2	3.08
3	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	2	-1	2	3.09
4	Joe Burrow	CIN	QB	5	1	2	5.01
5	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	4	-1	3	4.07
6	Trevor Lawrence	JAC	QB	8	2	3	6.10
7	Justin Fields	CHI	QB	6	-1	4	7.05
8	Justin Herbert	LAC	QB	7	-1	4	7.05
9	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	9	0	4	8.01
10	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	QB	11	1	4	8.09
11	Geno Smith	SEA	QB	14	3	4	10.07
12	Jared Goff	DET	QB	16	4	5	11.02
13	Deshaun Watson	CLE	QB	10	-3	5	8.02
14	Daniel Jones	NYG	QB	12	-2	5	8.08
15	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	13	-2	5	10.06
16	Aaron Rodgers	NYJ	QB	15	-1	5	10.10
17	Anthony Richardson	IND	QB	18	1	6	12.01
18	Russell Wilson	DEN	QB	17	-1	6	13.03
19	Derek Carr	NO	QB	20	1	6	14.08
20	Jordan Love	GB	QB	21	1	6	15.09
21	Matthew Stafford	LAR	QB	19	-2	6	15.05
22	Kyler Murray	ARI	QB	22	0	7	18.03
23	C.J. Stroud	HOU	QB	27	4	7	14.12
24	Kenny Pickett	PIT	QB	23	-1	7	17.12
25	Bryce Young	CAR	QB	24	-1	7	13.11

 

Quarterback Strategy

There are a lot of different strategies around drafting a quarterback. Some prefer the late-round QB approach, while others like to get a stud QB early. If you go the latter route, Joe Burrow is our best Tier 2 value and you can get him in the early 5th round. If you want for the middle rounds, Geno Smith is our 11th-ranked QB and can be had in the 10th round. If you’re a late-round truther, Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford are going in the 15th round and you can add Kyler Murray off the waiver wire in most leagues when he returns. 

Running Back

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR	Tier	ADP
1	Christian McCaffrey	SF	RB	1	0	1	1.01
2	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	2	0	1	1.05
3	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	3	0	2	1.07
4	Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB	5	1	2	1.04
5	Bijan Robinson	ATL	RB	4	-1	3	1.06
6	Josh Jacobs	LV	RB	6	0	3	1.11
7	Tony Pollard	DAL	RB	7	0	3	2.04
8	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	9	1	3	1.12
9	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	10	1	3	2.05
10	Breece Hall	NYJ	RB	11	1	3	2.06
11	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	RB	16	5	3	3.05
12	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	RB	8	-4	3	2.11
13	Travis Etienne Jr.	JAC	RB	13	0	4	2.07
14	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	14	0	4	4.01
15	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	RB	17	2	4	4.08
16	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	15	-1	4	5.07
17	Najee Harris	PIT	RB	12	-5	4	2.12
18	Cam Akers	LAR	RB	22	4	4	4.04
19	Dameon Pierce	HOU	RB	20	1	5	4.05
20	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	RB	18	-2	5	3.12
21	D’Andre Swift	PHI	RB	25	4	5	6.08
22	Alexander Mattison	MIN	RB	30	8	5	7.11
23	James Conner	ARI	RB	24	1	5	5.11
24	Rachaad White	TB	RB	23	-1	5	6.06
25	Miles Sanders	CAR	RB	19	-6	5	3.11
26	Khalil Herbert	CHI	RB	33	7	5	7.10
27	AJ Dillon	GB	RB	34	7	6	8.04
28	Isiah Pacheco	KC	RB	29	1	6	6.01
29	David Montgomery	DET	RB	26	-3	6	5.06
30	Rashaad Penny	PHI	RB	37	7	6	6.12
31	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	28	-3	6	7.06
32	Javonte Williams	DEN	RB	27	-5	6	8.05
33	Jamaal Williams	NO	RB	36	3	6	7.09
34	Dalvin Cook	FA	RB	21	-13	6	4.10
35	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	RB	48	13	6	11.07
36	Antonio Gibson	WAS	RB	35	-1	7	9.02
37	Brian Robinson Jr.	WAS	RB	32	-5	7	6.09
38	James Cook	BUF	RB	31	-7	7	8.07
39	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	RB	42	3	7	12.06
40	Samaje Perine	DEN	RB	39	-1	7	10.01
41	Jerick McKinnon	KC	RB	40	-1	7	12.09
42	Damien Harris	BUF	RB	38	-4	7	7.07
43	Elijah Mitchell	SF	RB	41	-2	7	9.04
44	Jeff Wilson Jr.	MIA	RB	45	1	7	10.04
45	Raheem Mostert	MIA	RB	46	1	8	11.09
46	Devin Singletary	HOU	RB	44	-2	8	11.03
47	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	RB	43	-4	8	9.05
48	Jaylen Warren	PIT	RB	50	2	8	11.08
49	D’Onta Foreman	CHI	RB	47	-2	8	9.08
50	Devon Achane	MIA	RB	49	-1	8	14.11
51	Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	RB	52	1	8	14.04
52	Ezekiel Elliott	FA	RB	54	2	8	10.12
53	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	RB	53	0	8	15.02
54	Leonard Fournette	FA	RB	57	3	8	13.02
55	Michael Carter	NYJ	RB	56	1	8	14.01
56	Kendre Miller	NO	RB	51	-5	8	11.10
57	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	RB	55	-2	8	13.11
58	Kareem Hunt	FA	RB	60	2	9	14.07
59	Chase Edmonds	TB	RB	59	0	9	18.08
60	Joshua Kelley	LAC	RB	62	2	9	16.07

 

Running Back Strategy

I tend to lean towards the “hero RB” approach. I like getting an RB in the 2nd round and maybe  another one in the 5th. If I’m drafting at the end of round two, Rhamondre Stevenson offers great value in his tier. I could follow that up with Joe Mixon (Tier 4) in the 5th and have a nice RB corp to build on. If you choose to go “zero RB”, the middle rounds have standout values in Alexander Mattison, Khalil Herbert, and AJ Dillon in the 7th and 8th rounds. You can add depth and handcuffs in late rounds with Devon Archane and Chuba Hubbard. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR	Tier	ADP
1	Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	1	0	1	1.02
2	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	WR	2	0	2	1.03
3	Cooper Kupp	LAR	WR	3	0	2	1.10
4	A.J. Brown	PHI	WR	8	4	2	2.08
5	Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR	4	-1	2	1.09
6	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	6	0	3	2.02
7	Stefon Diggs	BUF	WR	5	-2	3	2.01
8	Davante Adams	LV	WR	7	-1	3	2.03
9	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	WR	9	0	4	2.10
10	Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	12	2	4	3.04
11	DeVonta Smith	PHI	WR	13	2	4	3.06
12	DK Metcalf	SEA	WR	16	4	4	4.02
13	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	WR	10	-3	4	2.09
14	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	WR	11	-3	4	3.01
15	Chris Olave	NO	WR	14	-1	4	3.03
16	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	15	-1	4	4.09
17	Amari Cooper	CLE	WR	17	0	4	4.03
18	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	18	0	4	5.09
19	Deebo Samuel	SF	WR	19	0	5	4.06
20	Drake London	ATL	WR	20	0	5	5.05
21	Christian Watson	GB	WR	28	7	5	6.04
22	DeAndre Hopkins	FA	WR	21	-1	5	5.02
23	DJ Moore	CHI	WR	22	-1	5	5.03
24	Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	23	-1	5	5.04
25	Mike Evans	TB	WR	34	9	5	7.02
26	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	WR	24	-2	5	6.05
27	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	27	0	5	4.12
28	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	WR	26	-2	5	6.11
29	Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR	31	2	6	7.01
30	Calvin Ridley	JAC	WR	25	-5	6	5.08
31	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	29	-2	6	6.03
32	Christian Kirk	JAC	WR	30	-2	6	7.03
33	Jordan Addison	MIN	WR	38	5	6	9.06
34	Marquise Brown	ARI	WR	32	-2	6	8.03
35	Zay Flowers	BAL	WR	55	20	6	12.05
36	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	WR	33	-3	6	6.02
37	Treylon Burks	TEN	WR	35	-2	6	7.08
38	George Pickens	PIT	WR	37	-1	6	8.12
39	Jahan Dotson	WAS	WR	36	-3	6	8.10
40	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	39	-1	6	9.07
41	JuJu Smith-Schuster	NE	WR	41	0	6	11.01
42	Kadarius Toney	KC	WR	42	0	6	9.09
43	Brandin Cooks	DAL	WR	44	1	6	9.11
44	Rashod Bateman	BAL	WR	43	-1	6	9.01
45	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	WR	40	-5	6	9.03
46	Allen Lazard	NYJ	WR	53	7	6	11.05
47	Jakobi Meyers	LV	WR	45	-2	7	10.05
48	Gabe Davis	BUF	WR	46	-2	7	9.10
49	Quentin Johnston	LAC	WR	47	-2	7	12.08
50	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	48	-2	7	11.06
51	Darnell Mooney	CHI	WR	50	-1	7	11.12
52	Elijah Moore	CLE	WR	49	-3	7	10.03
53	Jameson Williams	DET	WR	51	-2	7	9.12
54	Rondale Moore	ARI	WR	52	-2	7	13.01
55	Zay Jones	JAC	WR	54	-1	7	12.02
56	Nico Collins	HOU	WR	57	1	7	10.08
57	Romeo Doubs	GB	WR	64	7	7	16.01
58	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	56	-2	7	12.04
59	Odell Beckham Jr.	BAL	WR	61	2	7	10.09
60	Adam Thielen	CAR	WR	58	-2	7	12.03

Wide Receiver Strategy

Wide receivers are going higher than ever before, so using a tier-based approach to drafting will allow you to wait on the position while other are sacrificing value to fill their rosters early. I won’t be leaving the first two rounds without at least one WR. If I miss out in the 1st round, AJ Brown is an excellent value pick in round two. Rounds four, five, and six offer excellent value in Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, and Christian Watson, respectively. The position is deep this year and even in the double-digit rounds you have nice value options like Zay Flowers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Rondale Moore. 

Tight End

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR	Tier	ADP
1	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	1	0	1	1.08
2	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	2	0	2	3.07
3	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	TE	3	0	3	3.10
4	George Kittle	SF	TE	4	0	4	4.11
5	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	5	0	4	5.12
6	Darren Waller	NYG	TE	7	1	4	8.06
7	Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	6	-1	5	6.07
8	Dalton Schultz	HOU	TE	11	3	5	12.10
9	Evan Engram	JAC	TE	8	-1	5	7.04
10	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	TE	9	-1	5	7.12
11	David Njoku	CLE	TE	10	-1	5	8.11
12	Tyler Higbee	LAR	TE	15	3	5	13.08
13	Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	TE	12	-1	5	10.02
14	Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	13	-1	5	10.11
15	Greg Dulcich	DEN	TE	14	-1	6	11.04
16	Gerald Everett	LAC	TE	16	0	6	13.10
17	Trey McBride	ARI	TE	18	1	6	14.09
18	Dawson Knox	BUF	TE	19	1	6	13.04
19	Juwan Johnson	NO	TE	17	-2	6	15.01
20	Mike Gesicki	NE	TE	20	0	6	13.07

 

Tight End Strategy

There’s not a ton of value in drafting a TE early, however, that doesn’t mean it’s not a good strategy. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews will give you WR-1 production, so I wouldn’t hesitate to draft either one. If you choose to wait, Darren Waller in the 8th round and Dalton Shultz in the 12th are both top eight TEs in our rankings.