Best Ball Value Players
The weather is getting warmer, the flowers are blooming, and the masses have begun on their summer-long journey of drafting best ball teams. Underdog drafts have only been going on for a few weeks, and thus, there are plenty of ADPs that are way higher than they should be. While drafting in early June can mean a lot of depth chart ambiguity, there is a natural edge to understanding which players are likely to rise up boards and drafting them at a discount, giving us an edge. Here are 10 players in best ball that are values due to Early ADP:
RB | ADP: 84.7
The stars are aligning for White to have a breakout year. Similarly to Cook, White got Day 2 draft capital just a year ago, and the Buccaneers will be without both Fournette and Brady in 2023. White will now be the feature back in an offense that should shift more toward the run now that Brady is gone. White could easily see 300 touches this year, a load that many running backs don’t see in today’s game. The Bucs signed journeyman Chase Edmonds and UDFA Sean Tucker, but neither pose as a significant threat to White’s presumed role. Once this becomes clear, I believe the market will become more bullish on White and his ADP will rise as we approach September.
RB | ADP: 96.0
The zero RB bros will love this one. Cook is a great option if you loaded up on WR, QB, and TE early. He’s going off the board as the RB30 after finishing last year as the RB45, but there are plenty of reasons why he could smash both his 2022 finish and his ADP. 1) He’s on one of the NFL’s premiere scoring offenses. 2) The Bills’ leading rusher, Devin Singletary, isn’t on the roster anymore. 3) He flashed explosiveness in his rookie campaign (5.7 YPA, which ranked fifth among all RBs with 50+ carries). 4) The Bills think he’s good, as they used second-round draft capital on him just a year ago. Once the training camp fluff pieces get going, Cook will probably sit around the 6th round. Draft him now at a discount.
RB | ADP: 215.7
You might not see him drafted in many best-ball drafts, but I believe that will change. I doubt the market will buy another Antonio Gibson fluff piece, but they might believe a Rodriguez one. Washington allegedly had a third-round grade on the rookie, despite drafting him in the sixth round of the draft. He’s a big back who produced well in college and earned a 90.8 PFF grade in his final season at Kentucky. Even though the Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr just a year ago, he had a rough rookie campaign, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and only finding the endzone twice on 205 rushing attempts. If Washington has already acknowledged they whiffed on the Alabama product, Rodriguez could have been drafted as a replacement, maybe as soon as this year. If he gets the positive press in camp I predict he will, he will no longer go undrafted in best ball drafts.
WR | ADP: 70.3
My opinion on Diontae Johnson is the same this year as last- he’s a huge target earner with low efficiency and a ton of drops. The difference this year? He’s going off the board as the WR36 whereas this time last year he was being drafted as the WR17. He’s on the same team with the same QB, so I’m not sure what has changed, besides the addition of George Pickens, but that was already priced in, to a degree, in 2022. I’ve seen some tweets already about his low ADP, and I imagine once more and more people see them, his ADP will rise a round or so.
WR| ADP: 78.4
We saw an insane amount of Gabe Davis steam last year, why shouldn’t we see it again? Davis saw the volume increase everyone wanted but didn’t return value on his ADP because he couldn’t maintain his absurd efficiency from a year ago. The Bills used a first-round pick on TE Dalton Kincaid in the 2023 NFL Draft, but other than him and Diggs, the Bills have no proven pass catchers. Once the market catches up to this, his ADP could easily rise a round.
WR | ADP: 154.0
The Rams are a shell of their 2020 Super Bowl self, but Matt Stafford is healthy and someone other than Kupp has to catch passes. Van Jefferson improved his target share slightly from his rookie to sophomore season, and since the Rams didn’t add any pass catchers of note, it’s easy to project his role to increase even more in his third year. Once the depth chart becomes more evident and he’s cemented in the media as the WR2 his ADP should rise a dozen spots or so.
WR | ADP: 143.3
Moore has climbed almost 30 spots since DeAndre Hopkins was released, but I still think he’s priced too low. He’s going off the board as the WR64, meaning he’s valued as a borderline team WR2/3, though he is firmly the WR2 in Arizona. If Kyler Murray is more on the 9-month recovery timetable as opposed to 12 months, Cardinal pass catchers will rocket up boards. I like the under of Murray’s recovery given the miracles of modern medicine, so I feel like I’m getting closing line value on Moore, even with the Hopkins departure and the murkiness of Murray’s situation.
WR | 155.4 ADP
The Browns may have traded for Elijah Moore, but what if he’s not the second-most targeted WR in Cleveland? Enter DPJ, who has been incredibly efficient (11.4 Y/T over his career) and received his largest role to date in 2022 where he was targeted 96 times. Now he gets a full season of Deshaun Watson in a contract year. DPJ is specifically good in best ball, where you don’t have to predict his blow-up games.
TE | ADP: 144.3
I was surprised to see where I had Dulcich in my rankings relative to ADP. What’s not to like? Dulcich received Day 2 draft capital in the 2022 NFL Draft, he finished as TE16 in Half PPR PPG, and he captured a 17.2% target share as a rookie. Russell Wilson certainly can’t be worse than last year (right?) and it’s likely Dulcich sees an increased role in Year 2. He’s one of my favorite TEs at his cost, and I suspect his ADP will rise when the training camp buzz gets going.
QB Sam Howell, 198.9 ADP
As of now, it appears the Commanders are committed to Howell, but the market disagrees to an extent, as Jacoby Brissett is going off the board as QB38, just 11 spots behind Howell. Howell may not be a world-beater, but he will provide a safe rushing floor, provided he is the starter all season. He flashed some promise in Week 18 last year, posting 18.3 fantasy points in his lone start. He also has many teammates going relatively late, so he’ll be easy to stack. I suspect Howell will end up as my highest-owned QB in best ball.
Jacob White is an avid fan of all things NFL, particularly fantasy football and the Chicago Bears. He is currently studying Economics at Wabash College where he hopes to learn the skills to further his career in the sports entertainment industry. He specializes in redraft, DFS, and best ball, where he routinely finishes at a profit, including a 2020 13-0 finish on the high-stakes KFFSC platform. You can find him on Twitter @FF_JacobWhite for additional advice on all things football and the semi-occasional homer tweet.