7 Overvalued Players
We know we are not beholden to the ADP…but…we glance at them when drafting. So here are some men you are probably flirting with but don’t want to succumb to their way too lofty status.
A player with too high (or too low—more on that later) ADP doesn’t necessarily mean he will not play to that standard (although most of the time it does); it also means other players in that ADP range are better for your fantasy purposes.
This is for those drafting PPR redraft league.
QB | Current ADP second pick, third round
You are going to draft Mahomes regardless; count this as a friendly word of advice. Mahomes finished last season as QB4 in fantasy. He had 588 passing attempts, 390 completions, 4740 passing yards, and 38 touchdowns.
The downside is his 62 carries for 308 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Running just isn’t his thing, which isn’t a problem if he is throwing for 5097 yards and 50 touchdowns.
But with quarterbacks who will give you both rushing stats and passing stats, you want someone who is the focal point of the quarterbacks’ attention in a redraft league.
Last season the top nine quarterbacks averaged between 25.6 and 29.1 fantasy points per game. The top 22 quarterbacks averaged at least 20 points. Waiting might be an option for your quarterback choice.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, and Terry McLaurin
RB | ADP 37
Sanders finished last season as RB23 in 0.5 PPR leagues. Yes, he was on the 26th ranked scoring offense that resulted in 2021 new quarterback, new head coach, and new offensive coordinator.
All indications indicate that the Eagles will have a committee of running backs, including rookie Kenneth Gainwell taking touches and passing options from Sanders. With Jalen Hurts under center, there is also another rushing option.
Last season in three games with Hurts, Sanders had 78.6 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, and three receptions. In a committee approach, the optimism here diminishes with his ADP.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: CeeDee Lamb, Josh Allen, and Chris Carson
RB | ADP 34
Although head coach Jon Gruden has continually promised that Jacobs would be more involved in the passing game, this has never materialized. Jacobs has had a total of 53 receptions and 404 passing yards since 2019. And now the Raiders have acquired Kenyan Drake on the second day of free agency. The Raiders signed Drake on a 2-year $11 million guaranteed contract. This can’t be sit on the sideline money?
Jacobs finished 2020 as RB8. With Drake firmly planted to take over some of the running back work and the Raiders’ offensive line losing four of PFF’s highest-graded run blockers, Jacob’s ADP should reflect these changes.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: Mike Evans, Robert Woods, and Travis Etienne
WR| ADP 52
Thielen finished last season as WR8 almost entirely due to his whopping 14 touchdowns. Statistically, he finished the season with 108 targets, 74 receptions, 925 yards, and a 68.5% catch rate. He was responsible for 32% of the team’s air yards and 22.1% of the targets.
We hope he finds the end-zone for another double-digit finale depending on him to be in the top 10 again this year. That is after averaging six touchdowns from 2014-2019. In 2018 he had nine touchdowns (the most before 2020).
In an offense that had the sixth-lowest passing percentage last season, Thielen will not dominate in targets (Justin Jefferson will). He has had only two seasons with more than 1000 receiving yards (2017 and 2018), and the potential emergence of tight-end Irv Smith Jr. will limit his end-zone targets.
The fifth round isn’t a reach for Thielen, except there are players with higher ceilings that you could be targeting.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: Javonte Williams, JaMarr Chase, Kyle Pitts
RB | ADP 18
There is a chance that Edwards-Helaire has a “bounce-back” season. It is a relatively light bounce as in 2020, in 13 games, Edwards-Helaire had 803 rushing yards on 181 rushing attempts. He also had 54 targets, 297 receiving yards, and 36 receptions.
The problem with drafting Edwards-Helaire here is twofold: first, he only produced four rushing touchdowns on 35 red-zone rushing attempts; and two, this offense runs through Mahomes and the passing game.
At this ADP, you can draft players that are the bonafide focus in their offenses.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: Najee Harris, Darren Waller, Justin Jefferson
RB | ADP 74
Is the sixth round a safe place for Gordon? Reports from Broncos camp is that Gordon is sharing first-team reps with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone. This isn’t surprising as the Broncos are expected to run with a running back by committee approach once again.
What is surprising is the insertion of Boone in the mix. The Broncos traded up to acquire Williams. Gordon is in the last year of his contract. It was expected that Gordon and Williams will be sharing touches, with Williams eventually surpassing Gordon.
However, what if Boone inserts himself in the mix.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: Mike Davis, Mark Andrews, Justin Herbert
RB | Current ADP: 33
The second round does not seem too early for a man with 114 carries, 521 yards, and eight touchdowns in 13 games. He also had 48 receptions for 357 receiving yards and two touchdowns. And in ordinary times, this would be ideal. However, these are not ordinary times in Detroit. New coaching regime, no Matthew Stafford, and well, their wide receiving corps is lackluster.
Per fantasypros.com, the Lions have one of the hardest schedules for both running backs and wide receivers. They aren’t a very good team and will play from behind. Negative game scripts are not friendly to running backs.
Then, of course, there is the addition of Jamaal Williams to the running back room.
Players with similar ADP could have acquired: AJ Brown, Keenan Allen, and David Montgomery
Conclusion
Fantasy leagues are rarely one in the draft, but they can be lost.
Remember, in PPR fantasy leagues, you are looking for that player who is the focus of the offense. It is even better if they are on a potent offense with a reliable quarterback. Nevertheless, take ADPs with a grain of salt. You have done your research. Rely on your research.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.
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