Overpriced Fantasy Players 2026
We recently published 10 Fantasy Players That Will Outperform Their ADP, so naturally, we need to create a list of players that we feel are too pricey. The following are six fantasy players that won’t live up to the cost of their average draft position.
ADP: 102 overall | TE10
Travis Kelce as TE10 is a joke. He’s a name-price player whose production has been slipping for three straight years. The stats still look respectable on the surface, but the per-target and per-route efficiency numbers tell a different story. His yards per route run hit a career low last season, and his output down the stretch fell off a cliff, capped by two ugly playoff performances of a combined six catches for 58 yards.
Kelce turns 37 in October. Tight ends at that age typically see a steep drop in production, and Kelce already failed to hit even a moderate aging-curve benchmark in 2025. Betting on a rebound at his age is a real gamble, not a value play.
The quarterback situation adds another layer of risk. Patrick Mahomes is working back from a torn ACL, and he suffered a torn LCL in December. He has been cleared for full training camp work and is aiming for Week 1, but there is still uncertainty about whether he opens the season with no restrictions. A tight end this dependent on quarterback rhythm and trust does not need more variables working against him.
Kansas City’s health at receiver also cuts against Kelce. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are both expected back at full strength, which threatens the target share that propped up Kelce’s counting stats last season.
There are so many better options at this point in the draft. I wouldn’t draft him.
ADP: 85 overall | WR37
DK Metcalf’s ADP of 85 still reflects his name recognition more than his current situation. Last season, playing with Aaron Rodgers for a full year, Metcalf finished as a fringe WR3 in fantasy, not the alpha receiver his draft cost in past years suggested. His average target depth dropped to a career low, and his red-zone usage has now been capped for two straight seasons.
None of that looks likely to improve in 2026. Rodgers is a year older and has already confirmed this will be his final season. His arm strength has visibly declined, and his passing numbers over the last several years back that up. A quarterback who is not pushing the ball downfield limits exactly the part of Metcalf’s game that makes him a difference maker.
The target competition has also gotten tougher. Pittsburgh added Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason, a receiver coming off a career-high touchdown total of his own. That is target volume that has to come from somewhere in an offense that already struggled to move the ball consistently last season.
A new coaching staff is in place, with Mike McCarthy now calling plays after replacing Mike Tomlin. That adds uncertainty to how the passing game will be structured, but nothing about the quarterback situation changes.
At WR37, Metcalf is being drafted like a receiver with league-winning upside. Last season’s usage, an aging quarterback, and a new target competitor all point toward a repeat of that modest WR3 outcome instead.
ADP: 44 overall | RB22
TreVeyon Henderson’s ADP treats him like an ascending RB2 ready to take over New England’s backfield. The usage pattern from last season says otherwise. Strip out two huge games that came only because Rhamondre Stevenson was inactive, and Henderson’s production falls closer to replacement-level player.
The trust gap showed up clearest in the games that mattered most. Stevenson played the bulk of the snaps down the stretch and into the postseason, while Henderson’s role shrank to a third of the offensive snaps during New England’s playoff run. That is not the usage pattern of a team preparing to hand its explosive back a bigger workload.
The efficiency numbers make Henderson’s case look worse. Stevenson graded out ahead of him last season in yards per route run, explosive run rate, and fantasy points per opportunity. Pass protection has also remained an ongoing issue in camp, which matters directly for third-down and two-minute usage, exactly the role a young back needs to expand touches.
The clearest signal for 2026 comes from beat reporting out of New England itself, which points to a near-even committee, with Stevenson handling early downs and short yardage while Henderson is limited to passing situations his blocking allows him to keep.
Henderson still has the explosive traits to win a fantasy week on a single long run. But drafting him at his current price requires betting against everything the coaching staff showed last season about who they trust with the ball. Stevenson remains the early-down back in this backfield, and Henderson’s role looks capped until that changes.
ADP 47 | RB23
Travis Etienne is gone, and that opens the door for real touches in this backfield, but the Jaguars did not simply hand that role to Tuten. They signed Chris Rodriguez Jr. this offseason and were reportedly aggressive in trying to add a back in the draft as well.
Early training camp usage backs up the concern. Tuten and Rodriguez are currently co-starters on Jacksonville’s depth chart, and camp scrimmage reports describe a role-based rotation rather than a workhorse plan, with Rodriguez working the goal-line carries and LeQuint Allen holding onto the third-down job. That is not the setup fantasy managers typically want from a player being drafted as a low-end RB2.
Tuten’s rookie tape is exciting on a per-touch basis, ranking near the top of the league in missed tackle rate and yards after contact. But he saw only 93 touches as a backup last season and posted almost no receiving usage, the exact role that tends to separate a true lead back from a committee piece in PPR formats.
No confirmed reporting suggests Jacksonville plans to bring in another veteran back before the season, so that scenario remains speculation rather than a documented risk, but I just have a feeling that the coaching staff may feel they need to add a veteran RB before the start of the season.
This is a pure gut feeling call. I’m out on Tuten.
ADP 37 | RB20
Cam Skattebo’s talent is not in question. When healthy last season, he took over the Giants backfield within two weeks and produced like a top-10 running back, ranking near the top of the league in missed tackle rate and yards after contact. If that version of Skattebo shows up for a full season, RB20 looks cheap.
My concern is this guy doesn’t understand how to stay healthy. Skattebo is coming off a serious ankle injury, a dislocation with a fracture and ligament damage, the kind of injury that ends seasons and can linger into the following year. Rather than treating that recovery with caution, he performed a backflip at a celebrity event in May and did it again in July at a public fan event, where he landed awkwardly and triggered a real injury scare.
Skattebo is the kind of guy who would run through a wall for a laugh. An RB who has already shown a willingness to take unnecessary physical risks during his own recovery window isn’t someone you build your fantasy team around.
I was out the moment he did the backflip.
ADP: 27 overall | WR9
Nico Collins is a stud, but WR9 prices him as a near-lock for elite production, and Houston’s situation carries too much risk in my opinion. The most glaring red flag is how bad last season ended. C.J. Stroud closed the year out with a four-interception collapse in the Divisional Round, the kind of performance that raises real questions about where his game is right now, especially after two straight seasons of decline from his rookie form.
The offensive line remains a mystery despite the offseason spending. Houston ranked near the bottom of the league in run blocking last season and traded away its starting right tackle. The team responded by bringing in several new faces, but most of that group is made up of rookies or veterans in their thirties reuniting for the first time. Adding names is not the same as proven chemistry, and there is no guarantee this unit performs any better in 2026.
Nico Collins also has an injury history most people aren’t considering, which includes recurring hamstring issues and two concussions last season, one of which cost him a playoff game. His per-target efficiency slipped in 2025 as his average depth of target increased, and the receiving room around him is getting more crowded with Tank Dell healthy again and two developing second-year receivers pushing for targets.
Collins has proven he can produce even in a flawed offense, and that floor is real. But WR9 leaves little room for the offensive line questions, the Stroud uncertainty, or another injury to actually show up. That is too much projected certainty for a situation with this many moving parts.
