Sports Betting

5 Sports Betting Tips When Betting on the NFL

Sports betting

What to Look for When Betting on the NFL?

The NFL is one of the biggest sports organizations in the world and certainly the most popular in the United States. It’s also an extremely popular sport to bet on. The massive success of the NFL has made betting on games an incredibly popular pastime. Most football fans enjoy placing the occasional wager. However, many might not be prepared for betting on the NFL online. That is why we are here. In this article, we explain online betting on the NFL and some tips for what to look for when betting.

Understand Key Numbers

Good and reliable odds are the most important thing to look for when betting on the NFL. What we mean by “good odds” can get complicated. You see, it isn’t always the most favorable odds that are the best. If one sportsbook overs a team to win by seven points -110 versus another site that offers the same line but at -120, that impacts your profit. If you truly want to find the best NFL odds, you must shop around. The ideal situation is to have a few sports books to choose from and place your bets at the sites with the best odds.

In NFL betting, certain point spreads are more common than others due to the typical scoring increments of 3 and 7 points. The key numbers are 3, 3.5, 4, 6, 7, and 10. Oddsmakers will often shade lines away from these numbers to create added value on one side. For example, a 3.5-point spread is more advantageous to the favorite than a 3-point spread.

Line shopping is crucial for maximizing the value of your NFL bets. Odds can vary significantly across sportsbooks, so having accounts at multiple books allows you to get the best available lines. Even a half-point difference in the spread can swing the result.

The point spread will not often be that much different from one site to the other; however, the difference between betting on the over/under can be noticeable. When the line is 54 at one site and 52.5 at another, that can really impact winning and losing.

Fade the Public

Public bettors tend to put money on popular teams and bet with their hearts rather than their heads. This creates value fading the public by taking the unpopular side that oddsmakers are forced to shade lines toward. Contrarian betting is a profitable long-term strategy

In sports betting, a common tactic is to bet against the bulk of public bettors or to fade the public. The idea is that rather than using unbiased analysis, recreational bettors typically base their selections on prejudices, hype, and popular opinion. To balance the activity, oddsmakers are compelled to shade lines toward the unpopular side created by this. A closer look at fading the public is provided here:

What is the Public Bet?

The side that most casual, recreational gamblers are taking is referred to as the public bet. This is typically the side that fits with popular narratives and public image or the fan-favorite team. By examining the proportion of money and bets on each side, oddsmakers can determine which side the public supports.

How to Identify the Public Side?

Sportsbooks modify their lines to balance their risk by drawing equal action on both sides. The public side probably has a bigger percentage of wagers and money. Betting percentages are made available by several betting websites and Twitter accounts to show where the public money is moving.

Manage Your Bankroll

Effective bankroll management is essential for sustained success in sports betting. Here are some essential pointers for managing your cash well. The only money you should have in your bankroll is money you can afford to lose. It’s often advised to set aside money equal to what you would spend on another form of entertainment, such as attending movies or concerts. Never gamble with cash meant for bills, rent, or other necessities.

  • Use the 1-5% Rule – Most experts recommend risking 1-5% of your bankroll on any wager. The lower end (1-2%) is more conservative, while 3-5% is more aggressive. This ensures you can withstand inevitable losing streaks without going broke. For example, if your bankroll is $1,000, bet sizes would range from $10 to $50 using this rule.
  • Flat Betting – Flat betting means betting the same amount on each wager rather than increasing bet sizes based on perceived edge or confidence level. This disciplined approach helps you ride out the peaks and valleys inherent in sports betting. Only increase your bet size when your bankroll grows sufficiently.
  • Avoid Chasing Losses – The practice of raising wager sizes in an effort to recoup prior losses is referred to as “chasing,” and it is one of the most significant financial drains. This is a method that heavily relies on your feelings, which significantly raises the likelihood that you will fail. Recognize that losses are an inevitable part of the process, and maintain the level of your bets that you have established in advance.

Keep Records

Keep meticulous records of your wagers, including the team or game, the kind of wager, the stake, the odds, the outcome, and any comments you may have. Because of this, you will be able to determine your strengths and weaknesses and any patterns or trends that might help you tailor your betting strategy for the future.

The goal here is to see if there are any blind spots. For example, if you continue to bet against one team to win and/or lose and aren’t having any luck, you should avoid this team.

Bet Strategically

Rather than betting the same amount on every game, adjust your bet sizes based on your perceived edge and confidence level. Bet more on your strongest plays and less on riskier bets. This allows you to maximize your potential profits while limiting your exposure.

Also, try to find patterns or trends that work for you and stick to them for your NFL Picks.

For example:

  • Bye weeks and rest differential between teams
  • Potential scheduling advantages or disadvantages
  • Travel distances and time zone changes
  • Injuries
  • How teams perform in different weather (cold, rain, wind, in a dome, etc.)
  • Potential impact on game plans and styles of play

 

Other Helpful Sports Betting Tips

Every online sportsbook has rules, terms, and conditions for safety and security. These terms are incredibly important, especially in 2024, when cybercrime is at an all-time high. Before you decide to dedicate yourself to a specific website, go over the terms and conditions and find what they’ve done to ensure that their customers are safe. Some of the important steps they can take include the following:

  • Multi-factor Authentication: online casinos and sportsbooks often implement multi-factor authentication to ensure customer privacy.
  • Encryption: of course, encryption is the most popular way to protect user data in 2024.
  • Regulation and Licenses: in order to ensure that an online bookie is on the up-and-up, you should always look for licenses and regulatory measures.
  • Links to Responsible Gambling Orgs: responsible gambling orgs work with gamblers and bettors to ensure that they understand the effects of compulsive gambling, and educate them on how to gamble responsibly.

Different Bet Types

Finally, online bookies offer a whole host of different bet types. Many people enjoy sticking to match bets, and nothing is wrong with that. We aren’t necessarily saying that you have to diversify your betting. Stick to whatever makes you feel comfortable and whatever you enjoy doing.

However, online sportsbooks offering a wider variety of bet options tend to invest more in their customers. So, even if you only enjoy one type of betting, locating a sportsbook that covers different options is still worth the effort.

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