NFL Draft Prop Bets
With sports currently on hiatus, we could all use a little more fun in our lives. What a better way to get in on the action than with prop betting on the 2020 NFL Draft!? After searching the web and looking at some legal sports betting site in the USA I have compiled some of my favorite prop bets for the draft and laid out my reasons for why I think value exists for each one. These are the five bets you should make for the 2020 NFL Draft!
New York Giants #1 Pick
Oh, Dave Gettleman; thank you for keeping us quite entertained this offseason. From him telling all teams that the fourth-overall pick is open for business to showing off his impressive “work from home” war room. But the question still remains – who will the Giants select with their first overall pick?
NFL War Room Comparison
Chargers GM Tom Telesco (left) vs. Giants GM Dave Gettleman
*Notice the difference in monitor-to-paper ratio on each desk pic.twitter.com/3LLfF3ZVJQ
— Kevin Boilard (@KevinBoilard) April 15, 2020
- Tristan Wirfs +165
- Isaiah Simmons +190
- Jedrick Wills +300
- Field – Any other pick +600
- Mekhi Becton +650
Simmons is the target here for me at +190. Multiple sources including Matt Miller from Bleacher Report state the Giants are locked in on taking Simmons with their top pick. Simmons is a top-tier and versatile player on defense that is lacking impact players. Keep in mind new head coach Joe Judge comes from New England where versatility was highly regarded. Also, even if the argument is made that taking a tackle fits more of a specific need, Gettleman’s last two top selections (Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones) have still left many puzzled. Additionally, it is tough to hone in one particular tackle that the Giants might like more than the other. By going Simmons as well here you also protect yourself if a team trades up with the Giants. There is a potential he could fall and the Giants could still get him even if they trade down. At +190, I think this is an easy move.
If you are looking at potentially targeting a larger pay-day though, selecting the field at +600 gives you a solid chance to capitalize on the randomness that is Dave Gettleman’s draft “strategy”. A trade down would make this bet potentially an easy win. There been reports from Matt Miller that Andrew Thomas could be the first OT off the board. That makes the field at +600 a sure-fire bet. There’s also a parlay opportunity here because the first offensive linemen drafted overall for Andrew Thomas specifically is at +550.
First Wide Receiver Drafted
The phrase that I have heard and read about the most regarding this wide receiver class is, “Don’t be surprised when Henry Ruggs III is the first receiver off the board in round one.”
- CeeDee Lamb +110
- Jerry Jeudy +110
- Henry Ruggs +350
- Field +4000
Ruggs has the value here because the odds of him going number one should be as likely as Jeudy or as Lamb going number one. His skill set is unique to the other guys and he can virtually fit and succeed in any offense. There is going to be a team that will be absolutely enamored with his speed. We also got some “concrete” evidence that the Jets are eyeing in closely on Ruggs with the 11th overall pick. In many scenarios, he would be the first receiver off the board. Also, if you check out GrindingtheMocks.com the experts have Ruggs’ expected draft position above both Jeudy and Lamb.
3rd overall pick
- Jeffrey Okudah +125
- Tua Tagovaiola +300
- Field +450
The way I see it here is the Lions can do one of two things with the number three pick: Trade down or draft cornerback Jeffery Okudah. However, with the talks of Tua Tagovaiola’s medicals appearing shaky teams seem less likely than ever to pay up to draft him at number three overall. Okudah going number three overall at plus money is too good a bet to pass up. Besides if a team wanted to trade up to three for a quarterback why wouldn’t they just do it pre-draft to avoid any technological risk?
Will Trevon Diggs be a 1st Round Pick?
- No -180
- Yes +140
In my two personal mock drafts that I have done Diggs has always been a first-round pick. Okudah and C.J. Henderson appear like that top two options at the position, but after them, it is really a crapshoot between Diggs, Kristian Fulton, and Jeff Gladney. There are just so many teams that need cornerbacks that teams might not be able to forego waiting till the second round to draft them.
It’s also worth noting that the prop bet on Alabama players going in the first round is under 5.5 players. Four of those players are locks with Tagovaiola, Ruggs, Jeudy, and Wills. The two players competing for that last spot are between safety Xavier McKinney and Diggs. Teams will value the cornerback position more than safety which is why ultimately Diggs becomes that fifth player from Alabama drafted in the first. It would not surprise me at all to see no safeties go in the first round.
When is Jalen Hurts selected?
- Round 2 -140
- Round 3 +170
- Round 4-7 +600
- Round 1 +1000
Per Ian Rapport on the Rich Eisen show, he has reported that the Patriots are looking to use a ‘premium pick’ on a quarterback. Now premium can meet a lot of different things, but for the Patriots (who do not have a second-round pick) they would be using a premium pick on Hurts if they drafted him at 87 overall. In virtually every mock draft I have seen Hurts has always gone outside the first two rounds, so the third round at plus money makes the most sense, especially with the Patriots also in the quarterback mix.