5 Fantasy WRs Who Won’t Live Up To Their ADP
Wide receiver is the deepest position in fantasy football. Every year, a series of receivers fail to live up to their average draft position. This can be due to various reasons, such as injury, coaching decisions/schemes, other teams’ defensive strategies, or even because the receiver walked out on his team in the middle of a game. Below are five candidates who will not live up to their ADP.
ADP: 14 | WR 8
Bold, I know. However, Puka Nacua is not the WR1 in this offense. While he did have some nice games in 2023 when Cooper Kupp was in the lineup, Nacua averaged 5.2 catches, 78.7 yards, and .3 TDs in games in which Kupp suited up. That’s roughly 8 fantasy points in standard leagues and 13 in PPR. Earlier this summer Nacua was a first round pick, so his current ADP of 14 is an indication that some are getting to wise to his overpriced draft position. Now I’m not saying that Nacua isn’t any good, and I’m not saying that Cooper Kupp might not get injured again at some point this year, but I’m also not willing to bank my 14th overall pick on that. Nacua is more like a 3rd or 4th round selection to me, and I would be happy to have him there.
ADP: 28 | WR14
There is no way that the Houston Texans spent over 40 million dollars to bring in Stefon Diggs and not have him be the WR1 in this offense. Sorry Mr. Collins, but you’re going to have to give that moniker up for at least a year. While I’m not putting an Antonio Brown-esque episode out of the realm of possibilities for Stefon Diggs this season, he is gone from Buffalo because of the changes in offense that OC Joe Brady instituted halfway through 2023. The Texans have to know that Diggs will not be quiet if the targets are not there for him. That means less targets for Nico Collins. Oh by the way, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are still here, and they brought in Joe Mixon who is a capable receiver out of the backfield. There is only one football to go around in Houston, and the numbers are just not going to be there to justify an early-round selection for Nico Collins.
ADP: 74 | WR33
On my board, I have Chris Godwin in the 90-pick range. Count me as skeptical that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have similar offensive success and are committed to Godwin beyond 2024. While I typically like players who are in contract years, the Bucs are installing their 3rd different offense in 3 years. New OC Liam Coen is going to have some heavy play-action passing plays, and Baker is going to be taking more deep shots, which is good news for Mike Evans and rookie Jalen McMillan. This team’s offensive line isn’t very good either. I also think that the Bucs are going to play very slow on offense so as to keep their defense off the field because it isn’t very good. Short yardage catches out of the slot are not going to pile up the fantasy points, at least in standard leagues. While Godwin will likely have some nice games, he’s going to be inconsistent, like he was in 2023. I want something much more assured at pick 74.
ADP: 93 | WR 39
While I like the talent and the football IQ, I wouldn’t say I like the situation for Ladd McConkey in his rookie year. This is going to be a run-heavy team, and the scheme is such that the TE position is one that has historically benefitted from OC Greg Roman’s offense (think Mark Andrews). Justin Herbert is being introduced to a completely different offense and is just learning to work with McConkey instead of Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston. While I like him very much in dynasty formats, I am not willing to bank on a rookie pass catcher on a run-heavy team at pick 93 in redrafts.
ADP: 96 | WR 41
Christian Watson missed about half the season in 2023 and a few games in 2022. In the 9 games he did play in 2023, he scored 10 or less points in 6 of them. In games in which both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have been on the field together, which is a total of 18, Doubs has outperformed Watson in 13 of those. Additionally, the emergence of Jayden Reed as a steady go-to weapon for Jordan Love leaves a little less fantasy point available for Watson. All this is to say that even at pick 96, Watson is not to be trusted. Doubs goes at pick 127, and Dontayvion Wicks goes at 156. If I really feel the need to invest in the Packer pass catchers, then I would rather have either of those at their ADPs than the injury-prone, inconsistent Watson.
