Whether you are utilizing the ‘hero running back’ strategy or the ‘zero running back strategy’ it is hard to overlook the value of a great running back on your fantasy team. And while people want to tell you the running back position is ‘devalued’ remind them that of the top-10 preseason favorites to win Offensive Player of the Year, this year, five are running backs.
But there are still those players regardless of their position and hype you want to be leery of trusting your fantasy fortunes to, here are four running backs that you need to avoid at their current ADP.
Miami Dolphins| ADP 24.0 , RB8
When you pick a running back in the top 10, you expect him to either dominate the workload for his team including their goal line carries, or have a healthy relationship with the passing game.
Although he is explosive, Achane will not be the primary back in Miami, the Dolphins offense utilizes multiple running backs. Last season, Achane was on the field for 43% of the offensive snaps while Raheem Mostert commanded 57% of the snaps. In Achane’s 11 games, he averaged 27 offensive snaps per game to Mostert’s 37, even though there was only a .04 percent difference in their rushing percentage (34 to 38).
Mostert is still there, and the Dolphins have added fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright who averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his first NFL preseason game adding his name to the running back rotation that is the Dolphins backfield.
Achane’s ADP is elevated by the insane efficiency he produced last season averaging 7.8 yards per carry, with an 8.5% touchdown rate, and the highest breakaway run rate at 12.6% with 13 breakaway runs. The question is, is that high efficiency sustainable, and more importantly will Achane be able to play a full season without injury?
The Dolphins were third in points per game last season averaging 27.9 with an offense that was slightly below mid-rank in rushing attempts per game (26.3) and below mid-range in plays per game (61.8). With the amount of talent, they put on the field in both the run and passing games, betting on the production of anyone not named Tyreek Hill in the first three rounds is rolling the dice.
Achane’s Betting Odds
Per bettingpros.com, odds are Achane’s offensive numbers will see some regression this season.
- Total Rushing Yards, O 750.5 (-110), U 775.5 (-115)
- Total Rushing Touchdowns, O 6.5 (-120), U 7.5 (-145)
- Most Rushing Touchdowns, +3500
- Offensive Player of the Year, +6000
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have a predictive win total of 9.5 games for the 2024 season with -122 odds they go over and +100 they go under that total.
Not saying Achane is going to be a bust, just that his running back draft capital is too high when he is going before Nico Collins, Sam LaPorta, and even his teammate Jaylen Waddle in half-PPR fantasy formats.
Green Bay Packers | ADP 39.7, RB12
The Las Vegas Raiders did not retain the services of Jacobs after five years in which, the last three, he played 15, 17, and 13 games, respectively. Last season Jacobs’s yards per rushing attempt dropped by 29% (from 4.9 to 3.5) while his explosive rate dropped by 52% (from 15 breakaway runs to 5).
To be fair Jacobs had a phenomenal 2022 season that saw him finish as 12th overall in fantasy points and RB3 in half-PPR formats averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game. But that was then and last season in his 13 games he still had 233 carries with an 84.9% opportunity share (which was first among running backs).
The problem is Jacobs has been a volume-based running back with his production relying on being on the field for early downs, short yardage, and goal line plays. With the Raiders there was little serious competition to his volume. That’s changed.
In Green Bay, he will be part of a backfield that retained A.J. Dillon and drafted Marshawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dillon has a similar skill set to Jacobs. Lloyd was thought to have a prominent role in the offense but is now nursing a hamstring injury he suffered in his first preseason game, along with a previous hip injury. But competition with Dillon is still concerning for a running back you are getting before acquiring Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes per fantasypros.com’s current ADP.
Jacobs’ Betting Odds
Per Pointspreads.com, Jacobs’s season odds are:
- Total Rushing Yards, 950.5, O +110, U-140
- Total Rushing Touchdowns, 7.5, O/U -115
- NFL Rushing Yard Leader, +1400
- Offensive Player of the Year, +10000
Minnesota Vikings | ADP 67.7, RB19
There are similar concerns with Jones as there are with Jacobs, even though Jones is going two to three rounds later. Jones ranked 34th in explosive run rate last season (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70),
Similar to Jacobs, Jones rode into 2023 from the highs of 2022 season, having played in 17 games and averaging 5.3 yards per carry. In the 2022 season, Jones was also ninth in evaded tackles (80), ninth in breakaway runs (14), and 10th in yards created per touch (3.28). The question is then was 2023 an outlier or a glimpse of things to come?
Jones is now in Minnesota who not only count Justin Jefferson on their roster but retained Ty Chandler in the backfield. Chandler played in all 17 games last season finishing with 461 yards on 102 carries with three touchdowns and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. He also had 159 yards on 21 receptions. Both will be running behind an offensive line that is a spit away from being top-10 but will have to contend with defenses loading the box because of the middling quarterback situation.
Picking Jones at his current ADP may seem like a safe bet, but you can draft Najee Harris (going a round later, who is running for a new contract on a run first team), James Conner (who has finished as RB13, RB9 and RB7 in his last three seasons) or Kyle Pitts (whose ceiling is higher because of quarterback play).
All that being said, remember what head coach Kevin O’Connell accomplished last season with an insane quarterback carousel, so don’t count him out. Just don’t reach for Jones based on stats from 2022.
Jones’ Betting Odds
The Vikings are +950 to win the NFC North
- 5 Total Rushing Touchdowns, O +110, U -135
- 5 Total Rushing Yards, O -105, U -115
- Win Rushing Title, +5000
- Win Offensive Player of the Year, +20000
Chicago Bears | ADP 64, RB22
Swift had a very good year last year putting up career highs in rushing attempts (229) and rushing yards (1,049) with his second-best yards per attempt (4.6) and all that was accomplished behind the Philadelphia Eagles’ very good, number one ranked offensive line. Still Swift was 28th in yards per touch (4.7) and 51st in yards created per touch (2.68), meaning he wasn’t that efficient and gained his yards on volume. The Eagles were seventh in run plays per game averaging 29.7 and eighth in plays per game with 64.7.
The Bears were second in run plays per game (31.4) but they were ninth in plays per game (64.5) a fraction behind the Eagles but the disparity between the run plays per game and the plays per game is massive. So, even if we believe the Bears drafted Caleb Williams first overall and acquired Keenan Allen to compliment returning hero D.J. Moore just to continue dominating the run game, Swift has competition in the backfield in the form of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
I’m not saying completely pass on Swift, but just keep in mind his yardage surpassed his previous best by 432 yards, his carries by 115 and he still only finished as RB20. Now he has competition in the backfield, an offensive line that is good but not great, and a rookie quarterback that has been given all the toys a young boy could want. Lower those expectations on Swift.
Swift 2024 Betting Odds
- Total Rushing Yards, 700.5, O -115, 750.5 U -112
- Total Rushing Touchdowns, 4.5 O -150, 5.5 U -134
- Offensive Player of the Year, +15000
The Bears are 50/50 to Make or Miss the Playoffs but their predictive win total of 9.5 has them at +120 to go Over and -150 to go Under.
