Draft Kings Picks Week 2
After football fanatics waited for what seemed like an eternity, just like that, the first week of the NFL season has come and gone. However things may have turned out for you in your redraft leagues, hopefully, this column helped win you some cash. Well, no matter if you’re looking to double down on your winnings or to simply start a winning streak, we here at Gridiron Experts are here to help. How this column will help you do that is by the Gridiron 3X philosophy.
Before anything, don’t forget to read how DraftKings does their scoring.
Too many amateur daily fantasy players see that they have $50,000 budget to fill a roster and like a puzzle, they try to spend as close to that number as possible. That, unfortunately, is not the best way to go about putting your lineup together. Selecting players is like making a big purchase in your personal life. It isn’t always about buying the most expensive item and it also isn’t about spending as little as humanly possible. When spending money it is really about getting the most out of your investment and seeing how far your dollar will take you. That is precisely how you should view your DraftKings lineup.
What is 3x?
Gridiron 3X is an NFL Daily Fantasy strategy where the goal is to build a lineup that scores 150 points or more. The reason why that number is so important is that 150 points is usually the required score to reach the winning side of a tournament. Once you can begin to see players in fantasy point production rather than DraftKings dollars, you can gain a better sense of the required fantasy output the player needs to archive in order for you to reach your 3X goal and win.
Using an example from last season, Alex Smith, the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs at the time, had a Drafts cost of $5,400. Using the Gridiron 3X method, Alex Smith needed to score 16.2 fantasy points (5.4 x 3=16.2) in order to reach his 3X goal. The best tip I can offer you when using this strategy is to see the dollar amount in decimals. If you remember, Alex Smith threw for 368 yards and four touchdowns against the New England Patriots. That hair-raising start would leave Smith with 34.02 points scored and therefore delivering you a fantastic return on your investment.
So now we have the DraftKings scoring, and we have the Gridiron 3X philosophy explained. With introductions and details now out of the way, here are some names that can deliver you a great return on your investment in week 1.
Suggested Daily Fantasy Premium Tools
I use a combination of matchup tools, data, and NFL Betting Lines to pick the best recommendations for you. Here is a list of sites I use:
- Daily Roto – Daily Roto for Redzone data, snap counts, targets, and play calling distribution.
- The Quant Edge – TQE has a WR/CB matchup tool that’ll be perfect for finding gems
- MyBookie – Sports betting lines like over/under are very underrated in fantasy sports.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,900)
That’s right, for the second week in a row, a signal caller from the Cleveland Browns has made my DraftKings article. Could you blame me? Tyrod Taylor may not have had eye-popping numbers but despite the poor weather conditions, he exceeded this column’s expectation. In week 2, Taylor gets to bypass the elements as the Browns heads to the bayou for a matchup with the New Orleans Saints. Last season, it was all about the emergence of the Saints defense. That 2017 season seemed like an anomaly though last week when Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the Saints for 417 yards and four touchdowns. While I don’t envision the Saints consistently allowing over 400 yards passing a game, I do like Taylor producing above his value on a fast track in New Orleans. Expect more of the same from Jarvis Landry and more targets headed towards Josh Gordon. This isn’t the Browns you’ve grown accustomed to, so as they say, adapt or die.
Drew Brees ($7,200)
Tyrod Taylor isn’t the only quarterback in this Browns and Saints matchup that I like. In an effort to keep up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Drew Brees attempted 45 passes for the first time since week 2 of last season. If the Saints defense continues to have a hard time getting back to their 2017 ways, Brees could be put into a position in which he is throwing 35-40 passes. When he drops back that often, there is a good chance of him throwing for 300 yards and if you’re following DraftKings scoring, that is an additional three points. Even excusing the defensive woes in week 1, I have said on the FF Faceoff podcast that until Mark Ingram’s return from suspension, Brees could be in a position to throw more than he had last season. The stats in these first few games will reflect those thoughts and if you invest in Brees, you’ll benefit from it.
Honorable mentions: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Lions, Matt Ryan vs. Panthers
Dion Lewis ($5,000)
This past summer, the Titans backfield was one of the bigger discussion points in fantasy football. After one week, we finally get an indication of where things may be headed. Against the Miami Dolphins, it was Dion Lewis with more carries and targets than his backfield mate, Derrick Henry. I think that trend will continue this weekend when the Titans take on the Houston Texans. Lewis is the pass-catching back within this offense and last week, in a small sample size, the Texans defense seemed susceptible to pass-catching backs. In week 1, his former teammate, James White, had four receptions for 38 yards and a score against the Texans. That performance helped White finish as the nineteenth best running back in week 1 and that was with him being given just five carries. Projecting Lewis with a larger workload than James White, I like Lewis to finish beyond three times his $5,000 price tag.
Adrian Peterson ($5,500)
No matter how illustrious his playing days once were, Adrian Peterson has gone from a prominent piece to your fantasy puzzle to being a scrap heap sell high candidate. Such is life for an NFL running back but for at least one more week, I’m advising you to buy-in on the future hall of fame back. The Washington Redskins will have their home opener this Sunday and will welcome in the Indianapolis Colts. This is a Colts team that has shown inefficiencies in defending the run during the preseason which bled into week 1. Last week, Bengals running back, Joe Mixon would have 95 rushing yards off of just 17 carries. It isn’t just about Peterson’s week 2 opponent as he too had a productive week 1. Peterson looked fresh against the Cardinals, shaming Patrick Peterson with a juke on his way to 96 yards rushing and a touchdown. His efforts earned him a top 10 performance at his position and I think we can expect more of the same this week. All of this optimism aside, the solid production from Peterson won’t be as consistent after this week.
Honorable mention: Royce Freeman vs. Raiders, Chris Thompson vs. Colts
Kenny Stills ($5,700)
The main headline in the Dolphins week 1 victory was the seven-hours in which it took the game to finish. Beyond that though, it was the efforts of Kenny Stills who caught four of his five targets for 106 yards and two touchdowns that helped guide the Dolphins to victory. His performance against the Titans would have him finishing as a top 10 scorer at his position. Next up for Stills and the Dolphins is the New York Jets. While the Jets deserve credit for mauling the Lions, it was the seemingly lost Lions and their five turnovers that sealed the deal. On top of that, it should be noted that Marvin Jones had two key drops. I don’t think that Jets walk into a quarterback’s worst possible game for the second week in a row. They will be tested a little harder in this one and I think Kenny Stills will be the most imposing threat that the Dolphins have to offer. It should also be noted that Dolphins head coach Adam Gase had high praise for his pass catcher this week and as if that’s not enough, so too did quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins signal caller had suggested that Stills could be in line for more underneath routes and therefore his receptions could see an uptick. This is all good news for a potential Stills owner and I’m buying in, literally.
Quincy Enunwa ($4,700)
I’ll grant you that the Jets did not have to move heaven and earth in order to achieve victory in week 1. That being said though, the Jets target share was encouraging to Quincy Enunwa supporters. The Jets pass catcher who missed all of last season would receive a team-high 10 targets. When healthy, Enunwa is no stranger to targets. In 2016, he would finish as just one of two Jet pass catchers with a hundred or more targets. Yes, I completely understand that 2016 feels like a lifetime ago and Sam Darnold was still enrolled at USC. That being said though, on the Jets depth chart, Enunwa represents the possession pass catcher and in a format like DraftKings, that could prove to be pretty useful. As for the Dolphins, their defense allowed just 20.9 points to the wide receiver position in week 1. I believe that to be more a product of poor quarterback play from the Tennessee Titans. Expect more fantasy points to be allowed by the Dolphins defense and for Enunwa to have himself a solid start.
Honorable mention: Stefon Diggs vs. Packers, Ryan Grant vs. Redskins, Jarvis Landry vs. Saints, Dante Pettis vs. Lions
George Kittle ($3,800)
The 49ers week 1 game against the Minnesota Vikings was marred with missed opportunities. Past all of that though was the solid performance from George Kittle. The second-year tight end led his team in targets on the way to finishing as the sixth highest scoring player at his position. as he accumulated 90 yards off of five receptions. As last years leading receiver, Marquise Goodwin continues to deal with a deep thigh bruise, Jimmy Garoppolo may need to lean on his tight end yet again. Facing the 49ers is a Detroit Lions team that looked absolutely lost on Monday night. From an NFL perspective, the 49ers need to work out their red zone inefficiencies. If week 1 was any indicator, perhaps the 49ers will look to breakthrough those red zone struggles by utilizing the same player that led the team in targets against the Vikings. In an offense like this, leading the team in targets, you could do a lot worse at the tight end position than George Kittle.
Ian Thomas ($2,900)
The fantasy football community was collectively disappointed over Greg Olsen re-fracturing his foot. While the longtime Panther appears determined to return in 2018, for now, there is a significant void that needs to be filled. In steps rookie Ian Thomas, a fourth-round selection by the Carolina Panthers this past April. There really isn’t much to work off of with recommendation. In week 1, the rookie pass catcher caught both of his targets for just four yards. While those aren’t exactly numbers worth shouting about, there is the ever apparent need for a tight end when Cam Newton is under center. The Panthers offense had efficiency issues as a whole in week 1. This week could be a little bit easier for Newton and company as they head into Atlanta to take on a Falcons team that is enduring key losses on the defensive side of the ball. I think those injuries open up the middle of the field for the rookie tight end and Newton will feed him.
Honorable mentions: Jared Cook vs. Broncos, Jonnu Smith vs. Texans
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