2017 Fantasy Football Do-Over
Fantasy football seasonal leagues have been over for about a month and a half. However, as the NFL draft nears (check out our NFL mock draft here), I always like looking back at the previous fantasy football season. I look at who I should have drafted the first three rounds. By doing this, I am able to look at what worked, what didn’t and review the best draft strategies.
Based on the average draft position in 2017, you may have drafted Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch in the first 3 rounds. If this is how your team started, you likely spent your 2017 season frustrated and out of contention. On the other hand, you could have drafted Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Keenan Allen. With this start, you probably enjoyed most of 2017.
One thing is certain from this review, there were a lot of misses in the first 3 rounds. Guys like A.J. Green, Devonta Freeman, and Jordy Nelson, as well as many others, failed to live up to their ADP. Let’s get started:
|1||David Johnson ARI||1||Todd Gurley LAR|
|2||Le’Veon Bell PIT||2||Le’Veon Bell PIT|
|3||Antonio Brown PIT||3||Alvin Kamara NO|
|4||Julio Jones ATL||4||DeAndre Hopkins HOU|
|5||Odell Beckham Jr. NYG||5||Antonio Brown PIT|
|6||LeSean McCoy BUF||6||Melvin Gordon LAC|
|7||Mike Evans TB||7||Kareem Hunt KC|
|8||A.J. Green CIN||8||Keenan Allen LAC|
|9||Devonta Freeman ATL||9||Mark Ingram NO|
|10||Melvin Gordon LAC||10||LeSean McCoy BUF|
|11||Jordy Nelson GB||11||Larry Fitzgerald ARI|
|12||Michael Thomas NO||12||Michael Thomas NO|
Todd Gurley was the obvious number 1 pick in the do-over. He not only led the NFL in fantasy points this season but in weeks 14-16 (the playoffs) he scored 123.1 total points. If you had Gurley on your team, you very likely won a championship.
Alvin Kamara won Rookie of Year. He would also likely be the fantasy football MVP. He was drafted as RB44 around the 13th round. By finishing as the number 3 scorer, you will not be able to find a better value.
DeAndre Hopkins contributed in the semifinal and championship games and as a result, was drafted one spot before Brown. Brown’s injury prevented him from playing in the most crucial games of the season. This kept him from being the overall WR1.
Melvin Gordon was selected in front of Kareem Hunt because Gordon was much more consistent. Hunt famously had a 9-week touchdown hiatus which left many people frustrated. This lack of TD production may have caused some to miss the playoffs. Gordon was much more consistent in his weekly output and he scored a touchdown in each playoff week.[the_ad id=”73965″][the_ad id=”63198″]
|13||Jordan Howard CHI||13||Jarvis Landry MIA|
|14||DeMarco Murray TEN||14||Julio Jones ATL|
|15||Jay Ajayi PHI||15||Tyreek Hill KC|
|16||Ezekiel Elliot DAL||16||Travis Kelce KC|
|17||Amari Cooper OAK||17||Adam Thielen MIN|
|18||Todd Gurley LAR||18||Rob Gronkowski NE|
|19||Brandin Cooks NE||19||Leonard Fournette JAX|
|20||Rob Gronkowski NE||20||Carlos Hyde SF|
|21||Dez Bryant DAL||21||Christian McCaffrey CAR|
|22||Doug Baldwin SEA||22||Davante Adams GB|
|23||Leonard Fournette JAX||23||Doug Baldwin SEA|
|24||T.Y. Hilton IND||24||A.J. Green CIN|
The biggest knock on Jarvis Landry has been his inability to score touchdowns. That was put to rest this season as he finished with 9. However, he was unable to crack 1,000 yards receiving on 112 catches, which kept him from being a first round player.
Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski both got bumps in the do-over draft because of positional scarcity at tight end.
Carlos Hyde outscored Fournette by 3 points on the season. Fournette was taken one spot earlier because he is the better player. Hyde failed to reach 1,000 yards rushing and scored fewer TDs. He caught 23 more passes than Fournette and this is why he scored more points.
At the end of this round, there were 6 receivers within 5.6 points of each other. Davante Adams went the highest because his playoff performance (even with the missed championship game) was the best of the bunch.[the_ad id=”73518″][the_ad id=”61518″]
|25||Christian McCaffrey CAR||25||Marvin Jones DET|
|26||DeAndre Hopkins HOU||26||Golden Tate DET|
|27||Demaryius Thomas DEN||27||Brandin Cooks NE|
|28||Lamar Miller HOU||28||Duke Johnson CLE|
|29||Tom Brady NE||29||Demaryius Thomas DEN|
|30||Keenan Allen LAC||30||Mike Evans TB|
|31||Isaiah Crowell CLE||31||Zach Ertz PHI|
|32||Marshawn Lynch OAK||32||Ezekiel Elliot DAL|
|33||Travis Kelce KC||33||Devonta Freeman ATL|
|34||Terrelle Pryor WAS||34||Jordan Howard CHI|
|35||Alshon Jeffery PHI||35||Robby Anderson NYJ|
|36||Kareem Hunt KC||36||Alshon Jeffery PHI|
Duke Johnson was a surprise for me here. He was a very under the radar player in 2017, scoring double-digit points in 12 of 16 games. Johnson caught 74 balls out of the backfield and scored 7 total touchdowns on the season while finishing with 1,041 total yards. All of this led to 216.1 total points.
Ezekiel Elliot was difficult to draft knowing he missed 6 games. However, he was drafted because he was so good in the 10 games he played. While playing, Elliot averaged 26.8 touches/game for 125.2 total yards/game.
Demaryius Thomas, Evans, and Zach Ertz were drafted before Elliot because they played all season and were all very consistent throughout 2017. All 3 players scored double-digit points in all but 5 games on the season.
Quarterback is always a position that you need to wait to draft. QB2-QB13 were within 50 points of each other. Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Blake Bortles were all in this range and they were most likely not drafted as your QB1.
13 players taken in the first 3 rounds, based on 2017 ADP, did not get drafted in this do-over draft. That comes out to just over 36% of the selections. These misses go to show how important it is to nail the first three rounds.[the_ad id=”61410″]