3 Round Fantasy Football Mock Draft Do-Over

2017 Fantasy Football Do-Over

Fantasy Football 2016Fantasy football seasonal leagues have been over for about a month and a half.  However, as the NFL draft nears (check out our NFL mock draft here), I always like looking back at the previous fantasy football season.  I look at who I should have drafted the first three rounds.  By doing this, I am able to look at what worked, what didn’t and review the best draft strategies.

Based on the average draft position in 2017, you may have drafted Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch in the first 3 rounds.  If this is how your team started, you likely spent your 2017 season frustrated and out of contention.  On the other hand, you could have drafted Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Keenan Allen.  With this start, you probably enjoyed most of 2017.

One thing is certain from this review, there were a lot of misses in the first 3 rounds.  Guys like A.J. Green, Devonta Freeman, and Jordy Nelson, as well as many others, failed to live up to their ADP.  Let’s get started:

Round 1

ADP Player Do-Over Player
1 David Johnson ARI 1 Todd Gurley LAR
2 Le’Veon Bell PIT 2 Le’Veon Bell PIT
3 Antonio Brown PIT 3 Alvin Kamara NO
4 Julio Jones ATL 4 DeAndre Hopkins HOU
5 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 5 Antonio Brown PIT
6 LeSean McCoy BUF 6 Melvin Gordon LAC
7 Mike Evans TB 7 Kareem Hunt KC
8 A.J. Green CIN 8 Keenan Allen LAC
9 Devonta Freeman ATL 9 Mark Ingram NO
10 Melvin Gordon LAC 10 LeSean McCoy BUF
11 Jordy Nelson GB 11 Larry Fitzgerald ARI
12 Michael Thomas NO 12 Michael Thomas NO

Todd Gurley was the obvious number 1 pick in the do-over. He not only led the NFL in fantasy points this season but in weeks 14-16 (the playoffs) he scored 123.1 total points.  If you had Gurley on your team, you very likely won a championship.

Alvin KamaraAlvin Kamara won Rookie of Year.  He would also likely be the fantasy football MVP. He was drafted as RB44 around the 13th round.  By finishing as the number 3 scorer, you will not be able to find a better value.

DeAndre Hopkins contributed in the semifinal and championship games and as a result, was drafted one spot before Brown.  Brown’s injury prevented him from playing in the most crucial games of the season.  This kept him from being the overall WR1.

Melvin Gordon was selected in front of Kareem Hunt because Gordon was much more consistent.  Hunt famously had a 9-week touchdown hiatus which left many people frustrated.  This lack of TD production may have caused some to miss the playoffs.  Gordon was much more consistent in his weekly output and he scored a touchdown in each playoff week.

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Round 2

ADP Player Do-Over Player
13 Jordan Howard CHI 13 Jarvis Landry MIA
14 DeMarco Murray TEN 14 Julio Jones ATL
15 Jay Ajayi PHI 15 Tyreek Hill KC
16 Ezekiel Elliot DAL 16 Travis Kelce KC
17 Amari Cooper OAK 17 Adam Thielen MIN
18 Todd Gurley LAR 18 Rob Gronkowski NE
19 Brandin Cooks NE 19 Leonard Fournette JAX
20 Rob Gronkowski NE 20 Carlos Hyde SF
21 Dez Bryant DAL 21 Christian McCaffrey CAR
22 Doug Baldwin SEA 22 Davante Adams GB
23 Leonard Fournette JAX 23 Doug Baldwin SEA
24 T.Y. Hilton IND 24 A.J. Green CIN

The biggest knock on Jarvis Landry has been his inability to score touchdowns.  That was put to rest this season as he finished with 9.  However, he was unable to crack 1,000 yards receiving on 112 catches, which kept him from being a first round player.

Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski both got bumps in the do-over draft because of positional scarcity at tight end.

Carlos Hyde outscored Fournette by 3 points on the season.  Fournette was taken one spot earlier because he is the better player.  Hyde failed to reach 1,000 yards rushing and scored fewer TDs.  He caught 23 more passes than Fournette and this is why he scored more points.

At the end of this round, there were 6 receivers within 5.6 points of each other.  Davante Adams went the highest because his playoff performance (even with the missed championship game) was the best of the bunch.

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Round 3

ADP Player Do-Over Player
25 Christian McCaffrey CAR 25 Marvin Jones DET
26 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26 Golden Tate DET
27 Demaryius Thomas DEN 27 Brandin Cooks NE
28 Lamar Miller HOU 28 Duke Johnson CLE
29 Tom Brady NE 29 Demaryius Thomas DEN
30 Keenan Allen LAC 30 Mike Evans TB
31 Isaiah Crowell CLE 31 Zach Ertz PHI
32 Marshawn Lynch OAK 32 Ezekiel Elliot DAL
33 Travis Kelce KC 33 Devonta Freeman ATL
34 Terrelle Pryor WAS 34 Jordan Howard CHI
35 Alshon Jeffery PHI 35 Robby Anderson NYJ
36 Kareem Hunt KC 36 Alshon Jeffery PHI

Duke Johnson was a surprise for me here.  He was a very under the radar player in 2017, scoring double-digit points in 12 of 16 games.  Johnson caught 74 balls out of the backfield and scored 7 total touchdowns on the season while finishing with 1,041 total yards.  All of this led to 216.1 total points.

Ezekiel Elliot was difficult to draft knowing he missed 6 games.  However, he was drafted because he was so good in the 10 games he played.  While playing, Elliot averaged 26.8 touches/game for 125.2 total yards/game.

Demaryius Thomas, Evans, and Zach Ertz were drafted before Elliot because they played all season and were all very consistent throughout 2017.  All 3 players scored double-digit points in all but 5 games on the season.

Quarterback is always a position that you need to wait to draft.  QB2-QB13 were within 50 points of each otherAlex Smith, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Blake Bortles were all in this range and they were most likely not drafted as your QB1.

13 players taken in the first 3 rounds, based on 2017 ADP, did not get drafted in this do-over draft.  That comes out to just over 36% of the selections.  These misses go to show how important it is to nail the first three rounds.

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