Dynasty Football ADP Value Targets
Almost anyone with a general knowledge of the NFL and its players can gather a group of friends and start a fantasy football league. Names like Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr., Tom Brady, Drew Brees and so on are household names whom everyone knows. But what happens when you get to that point where you have absolutely no idea who is left on the board? Do you just “eenie-meenie-miney-mo” and pick a player? No, you take ten minutes and read this article and get the upper hand on your less informed league mates. As I stated above, anyone can get through the first few rounds but what separates the men/women from the boys/girls is a deeper knowledge of players that can contribute to your team in the later rounds. Some say hitting on players in the later rounds can make or break your fantasy football team and I agree.
For this article, I am going to separate players into two categories: Sleepers and Deep Sleepers.
Quick Links (Updated 5/29)
- Dynasty QB Rankings
- Dynasty RB Rankings
- Dynasty WR Rankings
- Dynasty TE Rankings
- Dynasty Rookie Rankings
* ADP data courtesy of fantasypros.com
Wide Receiver | ADP: 83.5
Robby Anderson should open the season yet again as Sam Darnold’s number one receiver. Anderson has yet to top 1,000 yards, but I believe if he puts in a whole season, he reaches that mark in 2019. Anderson is an excellent route runner with top-end speed and a knack for the end zone. With the addition of Le’Veon Bell, teams will now have to respect the run game, which should open things up for Anderson. At his current ADP of 84.5, grabbing a volume monster who should see over 100 targets is an easy decision. It wouldn’t surprise me to so Anderson crack the Top 25 at the position if he stays on the field and out of trouble.
Wide Receiver | ADP: 95.0
According to Airyards.com, Odell Beckham accounted for almost a third (.28) of the Giants target share in 2018 with 123 targets. Odell is gone, and at least a third of those targets should go to Shepard, with the rest getting split between Engram, Tate and the other receivers. Just like Robby Anderson, Shepard is also coming at a great discount for being the number one receiver on his team. If you look at Shepard’s stats, you’ll see that he doesn’t jump out at you in the touchdown section. I think that’s more because Odell was such a weapon there as opposed to Shepard not having the ability because I believe he does. In the 2019 NFL Draft, the Giants selected their future franchise quarterback in Daniel Jones. While Jones has drawn criticism, I believe he has the tools to succeed at the NFL level, and his addition to the team is nothing but good news for Shepard’s dynasty stock. Fresh off a new contract extension and the addition of a future signal caller, this may be the last chance you can get the newly anointed number one receiver at his current price as it is sure to skyrocket once we make our way into the season and beyond.
Tight End | ADP: 104.5
To the casual fan, Austin Hooper may be the best Tight End you never heard of. 88 targets – 71 receptions – 660 yards – 4 touchdowns. I bet you didn’t know Hooper had that good of a year last year, did you? The Falcons added wide receiver Calvin Ridley in last years draft, which led many Hooper owners to worry about his opportunity. Hooper went ahead and had his best season to date, which eased the concerns of those who had doubts that he could still produce with three quality receivers on the team. Hooper is the perfect later round tight end target if you ignore the likes of Kelce, Ertz, Kittle and them early. With the incompetent Steve Sarkisian finally out of town and previous Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter back, Hooper has a great chance at reaching these numbers again moving forward. Still, at just 24 years old, the 6’4 254-pound tight end is a legitimate Top 10 tight end option in dynasty.
Quarterback | ADP: 109.0
“The quarterback whisperer” by Bruce Arians. That’s the title of a real book, written by none other than new Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians. His pairing with gunslinger Jameis Winston should have you excited about the young quarterbacks potential moving forward. The Buccaneers were top five in pass attempts per game and finished number one in passing yards per game. With no additions to the running back position whatsoever, it is going to be much of the same under Bruce Arians. Arians has already praised his new quarterbacks work ethics, stating that he has all the physical tools to succeed, he just needs to make better decisions. That’s where the quarterback whisperer comes in. I believe Arians can sharpen Jameis mentally and fundamentally to put him in the position to have the best season of his career. In addition to Arians’ tutelage, Jameis is surrounded by weapons such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, and Cameron Brate. While Jamies is a risk being in a contract year facing the possibility of moving to a different team with a different style coach and downgraded weapons, I believe Jameis will have a career year, locking himself into the favorable situation in Tampa for years to come.
Running Back | ADP: 110.5
It is well documented that the New Orleans Saints backfield has been a fantasy goldmine in the Sean Payton era. Kamara’s running mate Mark Ingram left for greener pastures when he signed with the Baltimore Ravens, where he is expected to be the number one option in the backfield. Ingram did it all, catching more than 50 passes twice in his career all while holding a career YPC of 4.5. Latavius Murray is almost as identical of a replacement for Ingram as you can get. He owns a career YPC of 4.1 and holds his own in the receiving game, once catching 74 passes in a two-year span with Oakland in 2015-2016. While he is 29 years old, he has around 400 fewer carries than Mark Ingram, who is the same age. Murray is coming at a great price because of his age and status behind Alvin Kamara but I believe Murray can develop into an every week flex play as early as Week 1.
Quarterback | ADP: 132.3
Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm last year with his historic season, but there was one quarterback who finished the season hotter than him. That quarterback was Josh Allen. Allen finished as the QB1 from week 12-17, thanks to his insane rushing statistics, 631 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns to be exact. Buffalo went ahead and added pass catchers such as John Brown, Cole Beasley, TJ Yeldon, Tyler Kroft and Dawson Knox to their arsenal. Buffalo also addressed the offensive line in the draft by snagging standout tackle Cody Ford in the draft. With improved weapons and offensive line, Allen is primed to take the fantasy world by storm with his dual-threat abilities in 2019 and is on his way to what I believe could be a Top 10 finish at the position.
Running Back | ADP: 148.3
235 receptions for 2,170 yards….. That is Duke Johnson’s receiving stats through his first 4 years. There is no doubt that the 25-year-old back is one of the best, if not the best receiving back in the league. The problem is, the Browns shocked us all when they signed Kareem Hunt fresh off his hotel incident where he was seen assaulting a young woman outside his hotel room. As a result, Duke has requested a trade, which has so far been denied by new Head Coach Freddie Kitchens. Here’s why I am not worried. Kitchens does want to trade Duke, just not right now. With Kareem Hunt suspended the first eight games of the season, I believe Kitchens will feature Duke the same he did last year, in an effort to build up his trade value for right before the trade deadline. With no future for Cleveland, Kitchens will use and abuse Duke in a pass catching/change of pace role for Nick Chubb until Hunt returns from suspension. Then when Duke gets traded, I say gets because I am certain he gets moved, it will most likely be to a favorable team who will use him as a player of Duke’s skill set is highly sought after. Also in the realm of possibility, is that he gets traded before the season. Which is no problem, its a win-win scenario. Dukes skill set lasts, just ask Darren Sproles, who is a similar player and entering his age 35 season. A talented receiving back is always in high demand around the NFL. With an ADP of 157.3, Duke should be squarely on your radar as a young pass catching back in all PPR leagues.
Wide Receiver | ADP: 177.8
Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders are perceived as the top two receiving options for Denver. Sanders, entering his age 32 season, is coming off a serious injury and is a possible candidate for the PUP list. This leaves Sutton and his current 93.8 ADP as the de facto number one for Denver heading into the season right? But what if I told you that you could wait roughly 90 spots and take DaeSean Hamilton instead, who is my bet to lead the Denver receivers in fantasy points for 2019 and beyond. The last four games of 2019, Hamilton averaged a solid 9.5 targets per game, whereas Sutton averaged 6.25. Hamilton finished with more receptions, yards, and touchdowns in this span, showcasing his game and bursting onto the scene. That momentum has an excellent chance at carrying over as Joe Flacco’s primary slot man. While Flacco has never really had an above average talent at the slot position, word out of Ravens practices last year was that he and Snead were buzzing. I believe Flacco will utilize Hamilton and his talents out of the slot, giving him a real shot at 70+ catches in 2019. Because of this, Hamilton enters 2019 as my favorite WR sleeper to target later in drafts.
Running Back | ADP: 183.0
Richard had a career year last year, with 68 receptions and 600+ yards receiving with some rushing stats thrown in there as well. This year, the Raiders selected Josh Jacobs in the first round, essentially limiting Richard to only a change of pace role as Jacobs is a skilled receiver out of the backfield. We must also factor in the addition of Antonio Brown, but the loss of Jared Cook and his 101 targets doesn’t make that addition as bad as you think, target share wise As a result of these two things, Richard’s ADP is slowly declining. While I won’t be aggressively targeting Richard, there comes a point where he falls to you and you have to grab him, especially in PPR leagues. The NFL is an unknown, and Richard is one Jacobs injury away from producing his career numbers from last year again. Think of him as an RB4 with high-end RB3 potential in PPR leagues if an injury were to hit.
Wide Receiver | ADP: 193.3
Two words are essential here: Quarterback upgrade. Stills and company are going to have none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick a.k.a. Fitzmagic slinging the rock to start the year, with Rosen waiting in the wings. Both of them are an upgrade on what they have had in my opinion. Fitzmagic has always been a gun-slinger, but he really set the league on fire for last year in the starts he made, setting a career high aDOT (Average depth of target) of 10.4. That should mesh well with Stills long speed and nose for the endzone. Devante Parker continues to be a bust and Albert Wilson has a separate skill set that shouldn’t take away much from Stills. Stills is the best all-around receiver the team has on the roster and the quarterback upgrade will only help. I would try and snag one of Stills or Wilson later in your drafts, as they should be playing catch up quite a lot in a most likely lost season. For the record, I prefer Stills as of now.
Wide Receiver | ADP: 214.7
In his three years with the Atlanta Falcons, Mohamed Sanu has received 271 targets, catching 192 of them for 2,194 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has yet to go under 80 targets in Atlanta and had 94 last year with Calvin Ridley in town. Sanu is one of the most consistent WR3/4’s there is in fantasy football and he is coming at a ridiculous discount. If you stock up on young talented receivers to build your roster around early, Sanu can give you that solid, consistent veteran who can produce right out the gate compared to other receivers around his ADP who will struggle.
Tight End | ADP: 219.3
It sounds like Greg Olsen is coming back for the 2019 season. This is especially good news for you if you are just starting a dynasty league with your friends because the presence of Greg Olsen will scare the common fantasy footballer off of Ian Thomas. Olsen is extremely injury prone these past few seasons, and this is almost certainly his last year. So 2020 the Tight End spot is Thomas’s to lose. Historically, whoever is starting at Tight End for the Panthers has been a coveted fantasy asset, and Thomas showed us he can ball when given the opportunity. I truly believe Thomas is an Olsen retirement away from being a Top 8 fantasy tight end. So take advantage of the cheap price now in your startup drafts or you will be paying up handsomely for his services in 2020. This is what we call getting ahead of the curve at the most scarce position in fantasy.
Wide Receiver | ADP: 231.0
The Chiefs have had their hands full with the Tyreek Hill situation. While he certainly deserves to be suspended and arguably forced out of the league, nothing has happened yet. In a panic move, the Chiefs severely reached in the second round for wide receiver Mecole Hardman in the 2019 NFL Draft to replace Hill. The man people are forgetting about is Demarcus Robinson, who has time in the playbook and chemistry with Patrick Mahomes. Sammy Watkins is a very talented receiver, but he struggles with injuries and it is yet to be seen if reaching for Hardman was a good move. With Hill’s status in the air, it is very possible that Demarcus Robinson is Mahomes top weapon at some point in the season. Once he was finally given some playing time he shined. He closed out last season with a touchdown in each of the last three games, showing us that he is more than capable of handling an increased workload in 2019. If I can get that upside this late in drafts, you can bet the house I’m running at the opportunity. Demarcus will be one of my most owned players heading into the season.
Jay Ajayi (Free Agent)
Running Back | ADP – 260.3
Ajayi tore his ACL Week 5 last season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Combined with his lengthy injury history in the past is the reason why he is still a free agent at only 25 years old with a Pro Bowl season to his name. Ajayi’s obstacle right now is obtaining a clean bill of health and proving it to teams, once he gets that, someone will definitely give him a look. With an ADP around 260, there aren’t much better lottery tickets to take a shot one. If he works out then you got an absolute steal and if he doesn’t then who cares bc he was one of your final picks anyways. Classic win-win if you wait and get him at this price tag.
Running Back | ADP – 261.7
David Johnson disappointed us all last year when he was famously miscast in that nightmare of an offense until Byron Leftwich took over. Now, the young and offensive minded Kliff Kingsbury will be running the show for the Arizona Cardinals, and I believe a full DJ resurgence is in the future. I’m talking 1,000 yards rushing and 750 yards receiving type resurgence. This makes his handcuff, Chase Edmonds, a top five handcuff in the game and an absolute must-own if you drafted DJ. If DJ were to go down as he did two years ago, there is no doubt in my mind Edmonds would be a high end RB2 with RB1 upside in PPR leagues.
Tight End | ADP: 270.7
”You see why we drafted him as high as we did because some of the things he can do… This guys got some special ability.” That’s a snippet of what Rams head coach Sean McVay had to say about Everett when asked this offseason. Everett is entering his 3rd season with the Rams, and that is right around the time when young TE’s seem to put it all together. Everett hasn’t shown us flashy fantasy stats yet but if you watch him play you can tell he has the ability to, just as McVay stated in his interview. Everett ran a 4.62 40 yard dash and is an 85th percentile SPARQ athlete. All he needs is the opportunity and it sounds like he may have an expanded opportunity this year to finally make a name for himself in the fantasy world.
Thanks for Reading
Brandon aka @Doublehfantasy1 has been playing fantasy football (and winning championships) since 2002. He has a special place in his heart for larger leagues and lives by the motto, “If you’re in a 10 team league, first thing you should do as commissioner is add more people”. Brandon is dedicated to providing deeper analysis on players after years of seeing useless vanilla takes all over the mainstream fantasy world for years. Brandon is a life long South Jersey resident but the only thing he loves more than a good beer is the Buccaneers. Go Bucs!