10 Worst Fantasy Bust ADP Values of 2011
Cue the clip from Good Will Hunting where Robin Williams repeats the phrase “It’s not your fault”
Every fantasy football season has bust players, it’s just part of the game. How were you supposed to know that your first round pick was going to be a total douche? You studied all summer (maybe all year) you drafted great sleepers and stacked your bench with solid depth. You even took the time to find a clever fantasy team name, yet your whole season was haunted by a waste of a pick that cost you serious value. If you had drafted anyone else things may have been so much different. Well, I’m going to apologize in advance as this article is all about digging up old bones.
Fantasy Bust Sh!t-List Requirements
- We’re speaking about pure ADP here (Average Draft Position). Late round busts are not going to make the list.
- Injuries that forced a guy to miss the whole season get a pass.
- Streaky play or potential of big weeks.
10 Worst Fantasy ADP of 2011
**All projections were taken from Fantasy Football Calculator‘s 2011 Average Draft Position**
2011 ADP- 32nd overall, 3rd rounder
Stats- 75 REC 960 yards, 4 TD
Thoughts– To be fair, Reggie Wayne had a pretty good season considering Peyton Manning was the quarterback of the cheerleader squad all season. Many thought Manning would return, and gambled on drafting fallen Colts players who seemed to have good draft value. Unforturatley that wasn’t the case. Wayne’s 2011 Fantasy ADP put him around the bottom of the 3rd round, ahead of players like Dwayne Bowe and Marques Colston. While 960 yards might not seem that bad, there was a streak between weeks 2 to 12 where he only scored a single touchdown and surpassed 75 yards once.
2011 ADP- 30th overall, 3rd rounder
Stats- 575 yards 1TD
Thoughts- Dallas has had a massive collection of RB’s over the last few seasons, and just when we thought the competition filter had found us a true stud, Felix Jones puts up flat frustrating 2011 fantasy numbers. Those who saw it coming, took full advantage of drafting the Cowboys 3rd round pick and laughed all the way to the “DeMarco Murray fantasy investment bank” –A good bank, no service charges.
Felix Jones ADP ranked him around the 3rd round last year, this year he is closer to the 13th round- ouch!
2011 ADP: 59th overall, late 4th early 5th rounder
Stats: 523 yards, 4 TD’s
Thoughts- Yeah sure Manningham made a nice catch on the Giants winning drive in Super Bowl XLVI, but his fantasy numbers stunk all season. With Steve Smith out of the picture and Victor Cruz not yet discovered, many fantasy owners had Manningham as their 3rd, some even their 2nd WR last season.
Manningham’s ADP in 2011 is around the 12th round, a massive free-fall
2011 ADP- 50th overall, 5rd rounder
Stats- 276 Yards, 1 TD
Thoughts- Apparently Tom Brady can’t turn everyone into a fantasy stud. Recently cut Chad Ochocinco was a disaster in New England, eating up more of the teams payroll than anything. With rumors now surfacing that Ochocinco struggles to grasp offensive schemes, there is a limited number of teams he can move to next.
Ochocino was a fantasy sleeper that stayed asleep all season.
2011 ADP- 47th overall, 4th rounder
Stats- 474 yards, 5TD, 11 REC 46 yards, 0 TD
Thoughts- The classic fantasy football love story, starring another 1st round running back. In short, Mark Ingram had a quiet rookie season. Fans expect huge fantasy numbers but sometimes it takes a year or two to develop. Many didn’t burn the farm to get the newest Saint RB, but seeing how his 2011 ADP was a 4th round pick, Mark Ingram makes the list at number 6.
On a side note– Mark Ingram is one reasons why people are hesitating on ranking Trent Richardson high this year.
2011 ADP- 36th overall, 4th rounder
Stats- 65 REC 771 yards, 3 TD
Thoughts- Mike Williams makes the list for one reason, and one reason alone: Touchdowns! Williams only scored 3 touchdowns all of last year. From an impressive 11 touchdown rookie season in 2010, this 4th round (ADP) fantasy wide receiver left all owners everywhere wanting more. With the fact that many had him ranked higher that Wes Welker or Dez Bryant on draft boards, Mike Williams makes the list at 5.
2011 ADP- 29th overall, 3rd rounder
Stats-179 yards 0TD,
Thoughts- Knowshon’s career seemed to fall apart over night. This highly touted 1st round draft pick lost his job to Willis McGahee leaving fantasy owners holding a wet paper bag of expectations. With a 3rd round fantasy grade many owners drafted this Denver running back and quickly made him a part of their bench. -In fact, he owned the bench in 2011, total bust!
2011 ADP- 4th overall, 1st rounder
Stats- 1067 yards, 4 TD, REC 57 418 yards, 0 TD
Thoughts- It hurts me to add a player that ran for 1,000 yards to this list. In all fairness, Chris Johnson didn’t have that bad of a season. Yet when his average draft position matches the number of touchdowns he produced, you’ have to call him a bust.
Rememeber we are giving injuries a pass on this list, so Jamaal Charles, despite being a let down is off the hook due to being hurt. If a player gets hurt, you don’t play him. It’s as simple as that. But if your top running back can’t gain more than 60 yards 10 of the 16 games he starts, you get a little frustrated. The potential of a good match-up didn’t seem to matter, CJ1K was the player you second guessed all season, that probably cost you more than a handful of weeks.
Chris Johnson is expected to have a bounce back season in 2012 and is still being ranked as a 1st rounder. Still after his big contract last season some are wondering if this is a trend we should watch for. McCoy, and possibly Matt Forte, are they going to stroll through a season highly paid and unmotivated?
2011 ADP- 6th overall, 1st rounder
Stats- 3,303 pass yards, 18 TD 14 INT, 589 rushing yards 1 TD.
Thoughts-Mike Vick went from “the” 2010 sleeper pick to the most over-reached player of last season. Granted many rode the explosive Eagles quarterback to their fantasy championship not too long ago, but in 2011 the NFL world adapted to how to defend him. Many saw Mike Vick regress back to his old “one-read and run” style progression after making so much headway as a pocket passer. As it stands now, Mike Vick’s ADP has gone from the top ranked Quarterback of 2011 to a projected 4th round pick and the 5th QB overall this year.
2011 ADP- 26th overall, Late 2nd rounder, Early 3rd
Stats- 587 rush yds, 1 TD, Rec 22, 130 yds, 0 TD
Thoughts-Do I even need to explain myself? Peyton Hillis was a total bust. Hillis revamped the Madden Curse in glorious fashion with his poor display of behavior in the Browns locker room and constant crying about his contract. He was easily last year’s biggest fantasy football regret. Hillis was drafted and then benched for almost the entire season, a waste of a (can you believe) 2nd round ADP pick.
Alternate Cry Scene: Fantasy Football Bust Inspired