Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets
The stage for Super Bowl LIV has been set. The San Francisco 49ers are taking on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, February 2nd in Miami at 6:30 PM EST. I’ll be using DraftKings and FanDuel’s current information for this piece, and currently, the Chiefs are a -1.5 points favorite, with and over/under at 49.5 total points. I’m excited about this years game, I’ve been researching historical data, rewatching film, crunching numbers and even read a Super Bowl Betting Guide I feel confident in my prop best this season, I feel they not only have a great chance of winning but should add another level of excitement to Super Bowl 54. The following 10 prop bets are ones I’d recommend to you:
George Kittle To Score
George Kittle is quickly becoming one of the elite and most talented tight ends in the NFL. Kittle is an absolute weapon in the passing game and after having a quiet game against the Packers, where he put up 46 yards on just two receptions. The first prop bet that I’d be looking to target is for Kittle to find the end zone. He’s just been too good and has been Jimmy Garoppolo’s go-to receiver week in and week out. In a game of this importance and with his involvement, Kittle finding the end zone is too likely to pass up.
Damien Williams Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
Next is Damien Williams of the Chiefs and a player prop bet of 50.5 or fewer rushing yards. I’m taking the under on this one, as Williams has yet to surpass 50 rushing yards in the past two playoff games, even with LeSean McCoy on the sideline. The production that Williams has seen comes from his touchdowns and involvement in the passing game, not simply rushing yards. McCoy wasn’t on the latest injury report, and with a game like this coming up along with his impending free agency, I’d expect him to get involved. Williams may get utilized more between his involvement in the passing game and goal-line work, but I’d expect another fairly underwhelming performance in the rushing game from Williams against a very tough 49ers defense.
Patrick Mahomes To Throw a 1st Quarter TD: Yes
This is one player prop bet that I’ll be all over during this Super Bowl matchup. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 26 touchdowns this year, with eight of them coming in the first quarter. While this 49ers defense is elite and arguably the best in the league, Patrick Mahomes is just too good to ignore this prop bet. Mahomes and the Chiefs will come out firing and Mahomes is a threat to throw a touchdown from anywhere on the field. This is one of the safer options for a bet that could pay out nicely depending on how much you’re willing to put in.
Patrick Mahomes Yards of 1st TD Pass: Over 14.5 Yards
This next prop for Mahomes comes closely with the previously mentioned player prop bet. We all know that Mahomes can throw a touchdown from any part of the field, not to mention a playmaker like Tyreek Hill is a threat to take a screen pass to the house at any given moment. Mahomes has thrown 19 touchdowns this year that have come from 14+ yards out. That’s 73% of his touchdowns this year out of his 26 total touchdown passes.
Sammy Watkins Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
A big part of this Chiefs offense putting up numbers against the 49ers should be Sammy Watkins. While we’ve all been disappointed by Watkins in fantasy football in the past, he’s been involved during the playoffs and has 76 and 114 yards in his past two games, respectively. Watkins has been up and down after starting the season off with 198 yards. Lately, he’s been involved enough and the Chiefs will need to continue to get him involved in this Super Bowl matchup.
Total Touchdowns: Over 6.5
If there’s one thing that I’d bank on in this Super Bowl matchup featuring this explosive Chiefs offense, it’s a high scoring matchup. The 49ers defense is legit, but Mahomes is playing out of his mind and is arguably the best quarterback in the league at the moment. The 49ers offense is very capable of putting up numbers, despite their main strength is their defense. Many games we’ve seen Jimmy Garoppolo simply become a solid game manager and protect the ball, and that’s worked perfectly.
Garoppolo has six games this year where he threw just one touchdown, as well as just one passing TD in the last two playoff games. That being said, I fully expect the Chiefs to put up plenty of points in this matchup, and Garoppolo will need to make something happen on offense. We’ve seen him fully capable of this between his talent and his offensive weapons around him. He’s totaled three games this year where he threw for four TDs, and with the emergence of rookie Deebo Samuel and the rushing attack, I would definitely take the over on this prop bet.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 1.5 Passing TDs
This player prop bet for Mahomes is one that you’ll need to pay up a bit for it to pay off, but it’s as good of a lock as any. Mahomes is going to throw the ball and with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and the running backs, it doesn’t matter who they’re up against. Even if the 49ers have one of, if not the best, defense in the NFL, Mahomes is going to throw at least two passing touchdowns.
A Special Teams Touchdown Scored: Yes
Anytime I can find a prop bet with this type of odds on it, I like to put at least a small bet down, even if it’s just for fun. Depending on how much of a risk-taker you are, a bet like this can pay off in a big way. With electric returners on each side of the ball, I could definitely see someone returning a punt for a touchdown.
Travis Kelce To Score 2+ TDs
This next pick is another player prop that I’d be looking to take a flyer on. We all know just how good Mahomes and Kelce have been this year, and Kelce is heavily targeted as the safe, reliable option on this offense. In a game that I’m expecting to be a high scoring affair, I’d consider putting some money on this prop, thanks to the high potential payout. This one is strictly on FanDuel, as the odds on DraftKings for the same player prop are +450.
Either Team to Have a Successful 2 Point Conversion: Yes
This prop bet is one that I’d bet on simply due to the likelihood of a close-scoring game. If the Chiefs offense ends up putting up numbers quickly, then the 49ers will be playing a bit from behind as well, which would also make sense for them going for two after a touchdown. Either way, this is a prop bet that I’d be interested in putting a little money on in this matchup.