Gridiron Experts

Winter Meltdown Or Playoff Lock

One of the widely accepted mantras in football is “one game at a time”, but when you’re sitting atop your division it’s hard not to look forward to the playoffs, and especially a first round bye. There are eight games left in this season, so clinching the bye has to be on the minds of the top teams in the league. The NFL is crazily unpredictable, it’s precisely what makes the league so interesting week after week, but a look at the schedule strength of the top teams in the league will help in deciphering who will be the recipient of the elusive first round bye (obviously barring any injuries or serious let downs).

AFC

Sched: vs.Patriots, @Ravens, @Texans, vs.Titans, vs.Broncos, @Jaguars, vs.Jets, @Bills.

At 8-0 and looking forward it’s tempting to say this team will go 16-0, but that won’t happen, as they will likely clinch the first round bye prior to week 17. Since 2005 Peyton Manning has led the way for the Colts, they have gone (25-7) over the remaining 8 games (2nd half of seasons) and this team is not looking to slow down any time soon.

Projected record from here on out: 6-2 maybe 7-3, possible losses:@Ravens, @Bills (resting starters).

Sched: @Colts, vs.Jets, @Saints, @Dolphins, vs.Panthers, @Bills, vs.Jaguars, @Texans.

Sitting at 6-2 the Pat’s look very favorable to take one of these spots. They are the current owners of the NFL’s best record in the winter months over the past 4 season (26-6) so don’t expect a meltdown. Projected record from here on out, 6-2, possible losses:@Colts, @Saints. Projected final record: 12-4.

Sched: vs.Bengals, @Chiefs, @Ravens, vs.Raiders, @Browns, vs.Packers, vs.Ravens, @Dolphins.

Currently at 6-2 a very favorable schedule will propel the Steelers to the top of this list. Providing another model of consistency, the Steelers have gone (22-10) over the remaining 8 games of the past 4 seasons. Projected record from here on out: 6-2, possible losses: @Ravens, @Dolphins. Projected final record: 12-4.

Sched: @Steelers, @Raiders, vs. Browns, vs.Lions, @Vikings, @Chargers, vs.Chiefs, @Jets.

The Bengals started off hot (6-2) but this schedule should slow them down. The history of this franchise over second half season meltdowns will linger in players minds, the Bengals are a combined (17-14-1) since 2005. Projected record from here on out, 4-4, possible losses:@Steelers, @Vikings, @Chargers, @Jets. Projected final record: 10-6.

Sched: @Redskins, vs.Chargers, vs.Giants, @Chiefs, @Colts, vs.Raiders, @Eagles, vs.Chiefs.

The Broncos have been playing spectacularly this year (6-2) but this schedule will cool them down like Freon.The B-Co’s do however post a very impressive record in the winter over the past 4 seasons, (20-12). The recent losses have proven that this team is good but not amazing, and can be taken down. Projected record from here on out: 5-3 to 4-4 , possible losses: vs.Chargers, vs.Giants, @Colts, @Eagles. Projected final record: 10-6.

If these predictions are accurate, the NFL tie breaking procedure within a division for two teams who have not faced off that season is the best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Meaning the Pats would be the recipients of the first rounder along with the Colts. As of now the Steelers and Bengals are battling for top spot with the runner up getting a wild card spot along with currently the Chargers.

AFC Eyes on the Prize: Texans 5-4, Ravens 4-4, Jaguars 4-4, Jets 4-4

NFC

Sched: @Rams, @Buccaneers, vs.Patriots, @Redskins, @Falcons, vs.Buccaneers, @Panthers.

Already at 8-0, look for the Saints to be resting their starters by week 15 vs. Tampa. The Saints are haunted by an atrocious record over the winter months since 2005, (12-20), look for Drew Brees to lift the curse. Projected record from here on out: 6-2, possible losses:vs.Buccaneers, @Panthers (resting starters). Projected final record: 14-2.

Sched: vs.Lions, vs.Seahawks, vs.Bears, @Cardinals, vs.Bengals, @Panthers, @Bears, vs.Giants.

Now at 7-1 the Vikes should cruise into the playoffs with 5 home games on their schedule. In the winter the Vikings post an 18-14 record in the last 4 seasons, but that was without the ageless wonder Brett Favre. Projected record from here on out: 5-3 to 6-2,  possible losses vs.Bengals, @Bears, vs.Giants. Projected final record: 12-4.

The Cowboys remaining games are: @Packers, vs.Redskins, vs.Raiders, @Giants, vs.Chargers, @Saints, @Redskins, vs.Eagles.

The Boys (6-2) are difficult to predict, especially at playoff time and a rough schedule is not going to help them out. Nor will the Cowboys inconsistencies, a (19-14) record over the past 4 seasons and a fear of not being able to advance past the NFC wildcard should keep them grounded (The Boys have not advanced past the wildcard round since 1997). Projected record from here on out: 4-4, possible losses @Packers, @Giants, @Saints, vs.Eagles. Projected final record: 10-6.

Sched: @Chargers, @Bears, vs.Redskins, @Falcons, @Giants, vs.49ers, vs.Broncos, @Cowboys.

Andy Reid and the Eagles (5-3) thrive in the winter with their backs up against the wall. Since 2005 the Eagles boast an (18-13-1) record that has only allowed them to miss the playoffs once since 2000 (in 2006). Projected record from here on out: 5-3, losses: @Chargers, @Giants, @Cowboys. Projected final record: 10-6.

Sched: vs.Seahawks, @Rams, @Titans, vs.Vikings, @49ers, @Lions, vs.Rams, vs.Packers.

At 5-3 the grocery boy Kurt Warner won’t be able to bag his way to a first round bye. The Cards post a mediocre (15-17) record in the winter since ’05 and even in their record setting 2008-9 season, they only went (4-4) in the winter months. Projected record from here on out: 4-4, possible losses @Titans, vs.Vikings, @49ers, vs. Packers. Projected final record 9-7.

AFC Eyes on the Prize: The Atlanta Falcons will have to focus on a wildcard as they are too far back to get the NFC South title, other teams in the hunt are: Giants, Packers, 49er’s, Bears….in other words anyone who can string together a second half winning streak.

Regardless of the accuracy of these predictions, it is going to be very difficult to imagine the NFC playoffs without the Vikings and Saints as 1st round bye recipients. After the bye whatever happens is unpredictable. The winter meltdown is over, and in the NFL playoffs there is truly only one mantra: “One game at a time”.

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